The Denver Broncos defense has no sympathy and gives no quarter, and poor Aaron Rodgers was not able to buck that diminishing trend. His trainwreck performance last week netted you a dismal 6.18 points, a week-ruining total for the most expensive quarterback. Dez Bryant’s return only got you 2.2 points, a case where our usual caution proved prophetic. For the other two overvalued plays, Latavius Murray and Gary Barnidge somehow managed to overcome brutal matchups and my series of prayers to net you 12.4 and 14.8 points, respectively.
FanDuel strategy, Week 9: Undervalued, overvalued players
Among the diamonds in the rough, Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen delivered as a nice stack, while Doug Martin and Tyler Eifert provided solid if unspectacular production. Week nine looks a bit more forgiving for the prognostication game; let us wade in and once more try to find ideal matchups.
Overvalued: Andrew Luck vs Denver Broncos $8700
Undervalued: Tyrod Taylor vs Miami Dolphins $7200
Poor Andrew Luck. Between misleading injury reports, bumbling idiocy in the front office, and poor health, the young phenom hasn’t exactly followed up his AFC Championship berth with exciting results. For our fantasy purposes, he’s been usable, but that usability often comes in the second half when the game has been settled. He faces the very same Broncos defense that just dominated Aaron Rodgers and has been invincible all year, allowing a terrifying 9.46 points per game to the position. At $8700, Luck has not hit a price point that lets you play him with any confidence in any matchup, let alone the absolute worst one possible.
We welcome back TyGod to the mix after a bye and injury, and his return couldn’t be more fortuitous for fantasy purposes. Tyrod averages 21.5 points per game this year, with a floor of 15 points, and his combination of aerial attack and ground game give him a better consistency than traditional pocket passers. His opponent, the Miami Dolphins, have enjoyed a resurgence under Dan Campbell, but their resurgence came to a quick end against the Patriots last week. Miami allows the 13th most points per game to quarterbacks, and their defense was shredded for three touchdowns by Tyrod in week three. Look for Taylor to bounce back in a big way.
Overvalued: Adrian Peterson vs St. Louis Rams $8400
Undervalued: Christopher Ivory vs Jacksonville Jaguars $7500
Adrian Peterson has been the only back who produced at least close to his top-five ADP, as this brutal season knocked out Jamaal Charles and LeVeon Bell. His returns have not been world-beating at a mere 13.9 points per game, falling to score in his last three games. In week nine, AP faces a stout Rams defense that is fourth in pass defense and third in rush, per Football Outsiders. They allow the 11th fewest points to running backs, and given their recent form, should pose an intimidating matchup for the Vikes. Peterson is our third-most expensive back, and I’m skeptical he gets you top-three performance.
Instead, take a flier on my dear favorite, Chris Ivory. Ivory has been the engine that has propelled the Jets’ surprising early season success, with three weeks of over 22 points. His price dips due to a combination of health concerns—he didn’t look fully himself against the Patriots and struggled against Oakland—and the concerns of an unhealthy Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Use these factors for your own gain, as Ivory is looking at a high usage game against a mediocre rush defense in Jacksonville. The Jags allow the eighth-most points to backs and shouldn’t enjoy a large enough lead against a livid Jets defense to dictate game flow. Ivory has a fantastic shot at outproducing his results.
Overvalued: T.Y. Hilton vs Denver $7700
Undervalued: Julian Edelman vs Washington $8000
Take everything written about Andrew Luck and paste it here for poor TY, who enjoys a Meek Mill-level of back-to-back brutality. After getting dominated by Josh Norman in Monday night’s game, Hilton gets to rebound against the Broncos, who merely allow the league-fewest points to wideouts. Hilton’s breakout game against the Saints has kept him in the top ten price points, but his expected output this week gives me absolute tons of pause.
At $300 more, Julian Edelman has the perfect combination of fantastic matchup and consistent usage. Nothing pains me more than complimenting Patriots players, but Edelman has been the picture of consistency, only scoring below 12 points once this year and averaging 17.5 points. He faces a Washington defense that has struggled against the pass in recent weeks, allowing Brandon Marshall to go for 18.6 and Mike Evans to hit 26.4 points. Over the course of the season, they’ve been the seventh-most generous to opposing pass catchers. Given the revenge tour and the high floor, I love Edelman this week.
Overvalued: Jason Witten vs Philadelphia $5600
Undervalued: Austin Seferian-Jenkins vs New York Giants $5200
We arrive at the biggest dart throw of the week: low-cost tight ends. This week, poor Jason Witten looks like the player to avoid. Witten has struggled this season, entirely due to the revolving door of awful backup quarterbacks in Dallas. Without Romo, Witten has exactly one double-digit output and hasn’t scored at all. He faces an Eagles defense that has the second-stoutest defense against tight ends, meaning that the matchup and quarterback play are two red flags far too bright to endorse his usage.
Aim instead for the bigger dart throw, the returning Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Jenkins had a breakout week one before an injury in week two, and his return is perfectly timed with the absence of Vincent Jackson. With VJax out, Jenkins has the profile of a high target monster with a great matchup: the Giants allow the second-most points to the tight end position. He carries a good deal of risk—this is his first game back, he’s still unproven, and it’s still Jameis throwing—but the upside is high enough to warrant the investment.
See More:
