Fantasy football start/sit advice, Week 15

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Broncos
The Broncos' defense was incredible early in the year, shutting down just about everyone. The team was 6-0 at its bye, and had allowed 7.8 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Basically, they turned every quarterback they faced into Case Keenum and/or Nick Foles. Since their bye, the team is 4-3, giving up 13.1 to the position. Of the true star quarterbacks Denver has faced, yes, it shut down Aaron Rodgers, but Andrew Luck and Tom Brady did just fine. Roethlisberger has more weapons than any quarterback in the league, in an offense that has been on fire lately. He's not as solid as he is most weeks, but he's still firmly in starting territory.

Eli Manning vs. Panthers
The last six games, Odell Beckham Jr. has averaged 20.8 fantasy points a game, including four games of 20-plus points and nothing in the single digits. He has at least 104 yards in every game, with eight touchdowns as well. Yes, he faces Josh Norman this week, who has been great, but Odell Beckham Jr. is Odell Beckham Jr., and I'm not shying away from him just because there's some scary guy there. He's the best in the game for a reason. And if you think this entire paragraphs wasn't my argument for Eli Manning, well, it was.

Denard Robinson vs. Falcons
Let's run under the assumption T.J. Yeldon is out Sunday. That's not yet confirmed, but it seems more probable than not. If so, then the Jaguars have little choice but to give Robinson more-or-less full play (maybe Jonas Gray gets a few carries, but come on). Well, when Robinson got the gig last year, he had 15.5 fantasy points a game through his first four outings. He tailed off after that, because Robinson is a small, injury-prone guy not built to a full-season's starter's workload. But for a few games at a time? He's actually a really good talent. He should be more than fine Sunday.

Bryce Brown vs. Browns
Obviously, if Brown is even worth consideration for you in the fantasy playoffs, you lost someone. Maybe it's Dion Lewis, or LeGarrette Blount, or Thomas Rawls, or T.J. Yeldon, or heck, Arian Foster. Whatever, a lot of guys have been hurt, and we're all just searching. In a bind, Brown could be something special. He has two career games of more than 16 carries, and in those games, he had 347 yards and four touchdowns. Yes, they were three years ago, and he's had fumble issues, and the team has Fred Jackson, and they signed Christine Michael. But in a pinch, needing a home run in a playoff game, Brown looks awfully intriguing.

Michael Crabtree vs. Packers
We have five rankers who contribute to our consensus ranks each week. And across those five, we came to a dead heat on Crabtree and teammate Amari Cooper this week, each being ranked right around 26^th among wide receivers. Except, look deeper. I have Crabtree 15^th and Cooper 26^th. Literally all the rest of the rankers have Cooper higher than Crabtree. Well, Crabtree has outscored Cooper on the season, over the last week, two weeks, three weeks ... literally, you can carve the season into any chunk, going backward, and Crabtree wins. Take out the game against Denver last week (feels like you can always do this), and he has five-plus fantasy points in nine straight games, just ending a six-touchdown-in-seven-game run. He's a much better play than his teammate.

Robert Woods vs. Washington
Okay, so it's a deeper dive. But Woods is coming off of a five-catch, 106-yard game last week against Philadelphia. This week, the Bills play Washington, who has a subpar defense overall, but is actually a reasonable defense against No. 1 wide receivers, grading out slightly above-average by Football Outsiders. The flip side, though, is that Washington is the second-worst team in the NFL against No. 2 receivers, and that's what Woods is for Buffalo. He has a shot at big production.

Zach Miller vs. Vikings
For the season, Miller and Martellus Bennett have averaged almost nine targets a game. Of course, Bennett dominated that list early in the year, with Miller coming on lately. Still, Bennett is on injured reserve now. In the last six games, has averaged 9.2 fantasy points a game, with five touchdowns and two games of 80-plus yards. The offense likes him, and he's performing, without a positionmate to battle him for touches. He's a good Week 14 play.

Blake Bortles vs. Falcons
In his last three games, Bortles has averaged 26.3 fantasy points a game, including tearing through Tennessee and Indianapolis the last two weeks. Of course, those two have allowed the sixth and seventh most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. In eight games against the teams in the top half of points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, Bortles has 21.1 fantasy points a game. In five games against the bottom half, it's 15.8 Sunday, he plays the Falcons, who are 26^th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Bortles feasts on the weak, and the Falcons actually aren't that.

Alex Smith vs. Ravens
Scroll up near the top and see the Roethlisberger section, where I noted that the Denver defense was simply a different entity before and after its bye. Well, prior to their Week 9 bye, the Ravens were allowing 21.5 fantasy points a game to opposing quarterbacks. You wanted quarterbacks facing Baltimore. Well, in five games since the bye, that number is down to 15.8, and would be much better if it hadn't just faced the Seattle Offense Of Death a week ago. Alex Smith has had a good year, but not a great one. It looks like a sneaky play this week, but it isn't.

Shaun Draughn vs. Bengals
We all remember Shaun Draughn, right? Undrafted in 2011, has passed through Washington, Kansas City, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Chicago, San Diego and Cleveland before finding his way to San Francisco? Had 274 yards on 75 career carries before becoming a 49er? This is not a hidden pearl; this is a guy who has just enough ability to not fall flat on his face when becoming his team's only viable option. In five games with San Francisco, he has 45 rushing yards a game and one touchdown. He's not even at 3.5 yards a carry. This weekend, it's the Bengals, who have allowed four rushing touchdowns to running backs all year. That's a big fat nope.

Matt Jones vs. Bills
Washington is leaning on Jones more than Alfred Morris right now (36 carries for Jones the last two weeks compared to 17 for Morris), and that will probably continue in Week 15. But the best of a bad lot is still, you know, part of a bad lot. Jones is averaging 3.4 yards per carry this year, hasn't had more than three receptions in a game, only has one game of 70-plus rushing yards, hasn't had a rushing touchdown since Week 5, took a back-burner to Morris only three weeks ago ... I mean, I could go on, but putting Jones in a fantasy lineup in the playoffs seems like a particularly intentional way to lose.

Larry Fitzgerald vs. Eagles
It's been a renaissance season for Fitzgerald, with 1,088 yards and seven touchdowns. On a per-game basis, that's 84 yards and 0.54 touchdowns. Since Week 3, that rate is 75.5 yards and 0.2 touchdowns. Fitzgerald had an incredible first three games. Since then, he's been fine. But he's topped 100 yards once since Week 3, and with John Brown and Michael Floyd both finding regular success, Fitzgerald's now more of a middling flex than a surefire starter.

T.Y. Hilton vs. Texans
The best-case scenario for the Colts this weekend is that a banged-up Matt Hasselbeck can gut out four quarters and keep them doing well enough that they can best a Texans' team manned by T.J. Yates. Like, literally, that's best-case. Another option is Hasselbeck is just good enough to play, but is far below 100 percent. Another one is that Charlie Whitehurst has to play quarterback, and he has exactly zero career games of both 200-plus yards passing and multiple touchdowns. No matter what scenario you draw up, putting your playoff chances in the hands of Hilton seems misguided.

Travis Kelce vs. Ravens
Before the Chiefs' Week 9 bye, Kelce averaged 8.4 fantasy points a game. He had three touchdowns, five catches per game, almost 60 yards per outing. In five games since, he has one touchdown, 3.8 catches a game, 42.2 yards a game. Kelce, went third or fourth among tight ends in most drafts this year; he's a distant seventh in scoring right now, and a pretty clear tier below the top guys. Guys who have played incomplete seasons like Julius Thomas and Zach Miller and Antonio Gates are more appealing right now. I'd be looking elsewhere.