Week 13 means one thing for plenty of fantasy owners out there: it’s time to do or die. If you’re right on the cusp of the fantasy playoffs, or if you’re trying to defend your spot, you know this is the most crucial week of the season.
Fantasy football start/sit advice, Week 13
We’re one week away from the playoffs for most leagues. Let’s break down the fantasy implications.
Fortunately we’re through the bye weeks, but a few major injuries hit owners hard last week. Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are both out, potentially creating a nightmare scenario for those trying to make the playoffs. Let’s see if we can help by running down some of the best and worst matchups for Week 13.
Start
Jay Cutler vs. 49ers
Before you do anything, take a look at the 49ers defensive numbers throughout 2015. Now focus on the road games. It's depressing. They're allowing 464 total yards on average when playing away from home. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown 12 touchdowns in those five road games (that includes a one-score outing from Nick Foles). Cutler's floor should be at least two touchdowns for Week 13.
Alex Smith at Raiders
The Raiders have allowed two or more passing touchdowns in eight games this year. Smith has a solid floor in the passing game, but he's also added over 30 yards rushing in each of his last four games. Marcus Mariota posted three touchdowns on Oakland last week. That should give you confidence about the matchup.
David Johnson at Rams
It's hard not to be excited about Johnson's opportunity. Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington are out for Week 13, leaving the rookie to handle the No. 1 duties. The Rams have allowed 460 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to running backs over their last four games. They're also giving up the fourth-most receptions to the position, which bodes well for a good receiver like Johnson. He's a cheap DFS play, too.
Javorius Allen at Dolphins
It would've been nice to see Allen play more snaps in his first game without Justin Forsett, but he finished with 84 total yards and a touchdown on 16 touches. Now he gets a Dolphins defense that been horrible against the run. Over the past four weeks, running backs have scored five touchdowns and posted three 100-yard rushing games against Miami.
Danny Amendola vs. Eagles
With limited participation at practice (a good sign for a Patriots player), Amendola looks like he'll get back on the field for Week 13. He'll face E.J. Biggers, the Eagles slot corner who has consistently received negative grade from Pro Football Focus. With Gronk and Julian Edelman out, it's a no-brainer to plug Amendola in on any roster you have him.
DeVante Parker vs. Ravens
If you held onto the rookie for the whole season, congrats. Parker finally broke out with four catches for 80 yards and a touchdown in Week 12. Rishard Matthews is out indefinitely with multiple broken ribs, leaving the rookie a starting gig alongside Jarvis Landry. The Ravens have allowed 18(!) touchdowns to wide receivers. Parker gets another chance to shine in a great matchup.
Jacob Tamme at Buccaneers
He went off for 10 catches, 103 yards and a touchdown in his first meeting with Tampa Bay. Leonard Hankerson doesn't look like he'll play again, leaving Tamme to reap the benefits in the Falcons passing game. In four weeks without Hankerson, Tamme has seen an average of 8.5 targets and six receptions per game. Fire him up again if you're in need a of Gronk or Graham replacement.
Sit
Russell Wilson at Vikings
Minnesota ranks No. 3 in terms of fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. This defense has only given up one 300-yard passing game in 2015. Wilson was on fire the past two games, but the matchup against Mike Zimmer's defense should have you looking for a second option.
Drew Brees vs. Panthers
Brees threw a combined 10 touchdowns in his last two starts in the Superdome, so benching him here might seem like a bad decision. But when you really look at his numbers, he's only produced against some of the league's worst defenses. As Rotoworld's Rich Hribar notes, Brees has finished in the bottom half of scoring among quarterbacks in six of 10 games. The Panthers defense is playing its best football of the year. Josh Norman would agree you should sit Brees.
Latavius Murray vs. Chiefs
The last three games have been rough for Murray. He has a high of 59 rushing yards in that span. Kansas City is the fifth-toughest team for running backs to face fantasy-wise. Only one running back has broken 100 yards against the Chiefs in 2015. Murray might help you in the playoffs, but it's setting up to be another disappointing week.
Frank Gore at Steelers
Chuck Pagano literally said Gore is "beat to crap." That's probably one of the last things you want to hear about your 32-year-old running back. The Steelers give up the fewest fantasy points to running backs. After seeing Gore rush for 58 yards on 33 carries in the last two games, it shouldn't be a tough call to sit him here.
Jordan Matthews at Patriots
The Eagles were losing 45-7 when Matthews scored his touchdown last week. It was the definition of garbage time points. Mark Sanchez hasn't done anything to help Matthews' stock, as the second-year receiver only has 10 receptions over the past three games. The Patriots aren't worrisome matchup for fantasy wideouts, but the Matthews-Sanchez connection shouldn't be trusted.
Doug Baldwin at Vikings
He's setting the world on fire with 20 receptions for 339 yards and four touchdowns in his last three games. But Baldwin gets a tougher matchup with Captain Munnerlyn and the Vikings defense for Week 13. We already talked about benching his quarterback, and with both teams relying heavily on their ground games, we should be in for a Rawls vs. Peterson battle. Baldwin is a low-end WR3.
Jason Witten at Washington
Witten hasn't broken the 50-yard mark since Week 7. Romo, Cassel, it doesn't seem to matter who's under center. The veteran tight end hasn't found the end zone since the first game of the season. Washington has only allowed two touchdowns to tight ends, leaving fantasy owners with another easy decision here.
