The decision on when to draft a quarterback in fantasy leagues is dependent on your league. If your league really isn’t competitive, it makes sense to go after one early. Obviously if you get six points for passing touchdowns, that goes a long way too. However, owners in competitive leagues usually should wait on QBs because the well dries up mighty fast for receivers and backs. Plus, the waiver wire also gets thin in a hurry, so it’s hard to replace your injured players.
2015 fantasy football ADP trends: Cam Newton slipping among QBs with Kelvin Benjamin news
The quarterback position is an odd one. After Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck are off the board, fantasy owners tend to have several different approaches. And recent news has Cam Newton slipping considerably.
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If you don't grab Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson or even Peyton Manning, you're probably going to want to pick up two quarterbacks. Sometimes your mid-level QB1 will have a bad matchup, so many owners won't have confidence in playing him. In that case, fantasy owners will really want to shoot for a high-upside backup -- it also really helps to know which weeks your QB1 has a bad matchup, too.
With that, usually the high-demand sleepers tend to trend up. That’s not the case this year with most of the offensive changes coming to the big names, but we’ve still seen some rising trends to two names. On the other hand, the loss of some weapons has hurt a couple big-name quarterbacks.
Each player will have a graph from FantasyFootballCalculator.com with the ADP on the left side. The graph is from July 19 to Aug. 19 and you can see some noticeable trends.
Risers
Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles
He’s a consistent climber. We all know about the offensive system of coach Chip Kelly and his up-tempo style. He loves big plays and the faster pace gives his offensive players more chances for production. Quarterback Nick Foles doesn’t possess the potential of former No. 1 pick Sam Bradford, but injuries continue to derail the former Oklahoma Sooner.
As mentioned, Bradford has torn his ACL twice, including last season. He is already on the practice field and should be ready for game action before the regular season starts. He’s likely going to creep into the ninth round in the near future, which is still fair value. After all, if he gets hurt again, it won’t hurt you too badly to just drop him.
As mentioned in the intro, not many quarterbacks have seen changes to their offense. However, Big Ben is not in that group. Roethlisberger gets another year in pass-happy offensive coordinator Todd Haley's offense while his weapons are also elite. He has arguably the best running back behind him in Le'Veon Bell, the NFL's leader in receptions and receiving yards in Antonio Brown, and potentially a red-zone monster in Martavis Bryant.
Another positive is that the Steelers have a really bad defense. The days of them running the ball late in the second half are over, so Roethlisberger could wind up slinging the ball as much as any other QB. He was second in the NFL in passing yards and ranked third in yards per attempt last season. Plus, Bryant being a bigger factor on the offensive side should increase the TD efficiency.
Roethlisberger has a chance for 40 touchdowns this year after throwing 32 last season. His fantasy floor is already very nice and his ceiling is almost as high as Rodgers and Luck. As the graph shows, the secret is out. It’s going to be really tough to take him in the fifth round, so hopefully he’ll last until the sixth or seventh.
Fallers
Well, this one is due to some recent news. As you can see, Newton’s fantasy value has taken a dive today and it’s likely going to continue to fall. Receiver Kelvin Benjamin has a knee sprain and a severe injury to the No. 1 receiver in the Carolina offense would be devastating. Benjamin cleared 1,000 yards in his rookie season with nine TDs on his 73 receptions and 146 targets -- he was sixth in the NFL in targets, too.
So what will Newton do sans his elite WR? Well, it's not pretty. Rookie receiver Devin Funchess is nowhere near the talent of Benjamin while there really isn't anything else on the roster. Corey Brown? Ted Ginn? No thanks. Although, Greg Olsen could be very busy.
The lack of weapons will likely drop Newton a few more rounds. Yes, he can get some running touchdowns, but the Panthers won’t be taking many chances on offense with their terrific defense. We really can’t consider Cam a top-10 QB at this time.
In the last four seasons, Jimmy Graham caught a whopping 46 touchdowns and reeled in at least 85 catches in each season. Now he's in Seattle with the Seahawks, which leaves a gaping hole in the Saints' passing attack. They never really bothered to replace him and they even lost deep-threat Kenny Stills to the Miami Dolphins.
On the bright side, Brees led the NFL in passing yards in three of the last four seasons -- he ranked second in 2013. The attempts will definitely be there, but the touchdowns may not. Still, if he's going to fall into the sixth round in your draft, that's plenty of value. Maybe Brandin Cooks goes off and Marques Colston finds the Fountain of Youth.
