Preseason is the time where fantasy owners get a taste of what’s to come once the games start mattering, and as a result, opinions can run wild with a few good or bad performances. So here, I’ve decided to compile a list of players who are trending upward or downward due to overarching storylines from the summer.
Fantasy football draft strategy: Preseason Week 3 running back stock report
Preseason can provide a roller coaster effect on the average draft positions of running backs for fantasy owners. We break down the fantasy implications that Week 2 of the preseason provided.
Keep in mind, this is about who is rising or falling, so if you don't see a name like Adrian Peterson in the "Trending Up" section, it's because he's already made it to the top. Let's have a look:
Trending Up
The St. Louis Rams cleared their first-round pick to participate in team drills on Monday, and he's already had time working with the starters. Though his torn ACL suffered last November is nothing to scoff at, it's clear that the Rams want Gurley involved as much as possible after investing such a high pick in him. Gurley can still be had for a bargain in the fifth round, which owners would be wise to take a chance on with such massive upside presenting itself in terms of usage, as well as his raw talent.
It’s easy for viewers to get excited about players during the preseason. It’s the first look we’ve had of players in a long time, and seeing them respond well in new situations, plus owners wanting to find “the next big thing” tends to skew views toward the optimistic, whether they are warranted or not.
For Ameer Abdullah, fantasy owners have grown more excited for him by the minute after an electric preseason debut, showing off big-play burst and every reason why the Detroit Lions added him to their backfield. Owners responded to this performance by selecting him earlier in drafts, as evidenced by his now fourth-round average draft position. There's little question that Abdullah has plenty of big-play talent and upside amid a formidable offense, but questions remain about his usage in a crowded backfield. Approach with caution in redraft leagues, although Abdullah is a premier talent to be had in dynasty formats.
Backfield injuries will always influence the fantasy stock of once off-the-radar players, and that's what has happened with Alfred Blue. Seen formerly as a mere handcuff for Arian Foster, Blue will be in line for a lead role while Chris Polk and Jonathan Grimes spell the second-year back.
The question remains regarding how long Foster will be out after tearing a groin muscle, and Blue’s fantasy value directly relates to how effective Foster will be when he returns to action, and also when that return will be. In the meantime, fantasy owners don’t seem to be all that optimistic about Foster’s return, as evidenced by Blue’s skyrocketing ADP. Since Aug. 1, Blue’s ADP has risen from the 13th round all the way up to the sixth.
Trending Down
It's not usually a good sign when a team opts to sign a 29-year-old running back to compete for starting duties, and that's what has happened with the Arizona Cardinals and Chris Johnson. Andre Ellington helped a lot of PPR fantasy owners last season with his volume, but left much to be desired in terms of his efficiency and his ability to stay healthy.
Ellington missed four games in 2014 and was banged-up for most of the year with a foot injury, undoubtedly contributing to a paltry 3.3 yards per carry. Though he remains at the top of the backfield depth chart, it’s worth mentioning that it’s growing more crowded. Ellington remains more valuable in PPR leagues than standard, but fantasy owners seem to be more cautious after an uninspiring first-year as a feature back.
Joique Bell
Joique Bell's stock falling is evidence of just how real recency bias is. After back-to-back years of putting up over 1,000 total yards and logging eight touchdowns in both 2013 and 2014, Bell's draft stock has fallen to the seventh round.
That doesn't come without reason, however. Rookie Ameer Abdullah has impressed, and Theo Riddick will warrant usage, as well. But the main factor is Bell continues to recover from knee and Achilles surgeries, and has missed practice this summer. Despite reports of Bell retaining his starting role upon return, fantasy owners remain bearish on how much he will be used, due to the team's committee approach and skepticism regarding his effectiveness. Should he return to form, Bell would be quite the get in the mid-rounds.
