Fantasy football start/sit advice, Week 1

The 2015 NFL season is officially up on us! Week 1 fantasy football is underway, with Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady getting off to a fantastic start on Thursday Night Football. While TNF is a nice appetizer, Sunday is the exciting time for fantasy owners. A vast majority of players are in action, and decisions need to be made. We break down some start/sit options as you get ready for Week 1’s Sunday action.

Sam Bradford, QB
The Eagles vs. Falcons matchup has the highest over/under, according to Vegas. Philadelphia is also the favorite for Monday night’s game in Atlanta. This sets up for a high-scoring Week 1 for multiple Eagles players, and Sam Bradford will be at the center of it all. The Falcons allowed the most 300-yard passing games last season, and while Dan Quinn might help revitalize his new team’s defense, they’ll have a tough time keeping up with Chip Kelly’s offense.

Ryan Tannehill, QB
The Dolphins provided Tannehill with some new weapons this offseason, which bodes well for a solid fantasy campaign. More importantly, in Week 1 he faces a Washington team that has a lot of questions. The quarterback situation is in the spotlight, but their cornerback situation is worth noting. DeAngelo Hall and Chris Culliver can be play makers, but they can also give up big plays.

Chris Ivory, RB
As Rotoworld’s Rich Hribar noted, Ivory averaged 13.6 points per game when the Jets were favored last season. He only scored 8.9 points per game when the Jets were the underdog. The Browns defense gave up the most rushing yards last season. Mike Pettine’s last three seasons have produced run defenses in the bottom third of the league. Ivory is a lock to dominate the touches in the Jets backfield.

Mark Ingram, RB
C.J. Spiller is not expected to play this weekend, which means that many more touches for Ingram. He is not as much of a factor in the passing game, but one less running back bodes well for him. The Saints face a Cardinals defense that is talented, but could be gashed by the powerful running back.

Roddy White, WR
Another target in the Monday night track meet, White will be overlooked by plenty of owners. His average draft position (ADP) plummeted throughout the offseason with reports of different procedures and his bulky knees. White is practicing in full for Week 1, though, so you’ll at least be able to fire him up early this season. Good volume in the passing game will lead to a healthy amount of targets for White.

John Brown, WR
The Cardinals have questions surrounding Michael Floyd, which provides a big opportunity for John Brown early in the season. A year ago, the Saints gave up the sixth-most points to wide receivers, and there is little reason to expect anything different in 2015.

Jason Witten, TE
An overlooked commodity in fantasy football, Witten’s ADP dropped into double-digit rounds this year. A dip in his receptions over the past two years has turned public perception against him. Witten scored five touchdowns in his last four games against the Giants, and considering the Cowboys look in position to throw more this year, Witten makes for a solid play in Week 1.

Delanie Walker, TE
This is all about taking advantage of the rookie play. Marcus Mariota does not have a lot of great options in the passing game, but a capable tight end can be huge for a rookie. Expect him to look Walker’s way frequently, with PPR value being that much higher.

Alex Smith, QB
I loved Smith’s value in drafts this year, but Week 1 is not going to do his stock any favors. The Chiefs-Texans matchup has the second-lowest over/under for the opening week. Houston allowed just 202 passing yards per game over the last six games of 2014. A low-scoring game with Smith playing on the road, find a better option to stream.

Jay Cutler, QB
He could very well rebound in 2015, but it might be worth waiting to see how he opens the season. The Bears have had struggles against the Packers over the years, and this is not an ideal Week 1 matchup, even at Soldier Field. Cutler lost Brandon Marshall in a trade, leaving him a bit shorthanded while he figures out what he has. Take a wait and see approach with Cutler.

Alfred Blue, RB
Sticking with the low-scoring script, Blue was an underwhelming part of the Texans offense in 2014. He averaged 3.1 yards per carry, and while that can be a misleading stat at times, it tells most of the story with Blue. The Chiefs gave up four rushing touchdowns last season. I’m staying away from Blue.

Tre Mason, RB
The Rams are building toward Todd Gurley, which means Mason has limited value early. Week 1 is not one of those weeks. He faces a strong Seahawks defense that gave up the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs in 2014. Even without Kam Chancellor, it will still be tough sledding. Add in a hamstring injury, and he’s not worth starting.

Sammy Watkins, WR
Watkins will get to face Vontae Davis for most of Sunday’s game. According to Pro Football Focus, Davis didn’t allow a single touchdown in 2014, and he only gave yielded more than 50 receiving yards in one game. With an inaccurate quarterback in Tyrod Taylor, it’s hard to find confidence in Watkins for this one.

Brian Quick, WR
He is a talented receiver who is primed for a nice second season, but he opens with a tough matchup. The Seahawks secondary is no joke, and Quick is unlikely to find a lot of opportunities in Week 1.

Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen, TE
The Colts tight ends will have their moments in 2015, but they will not be particularly consistent considering the pass catching options at wide receiver and in Frank Gore. In Week 1, they face a Bills defense that held tight ends to the fewest fantasy points per game.