Fantasy football lineup advice, Week 1: Using Vegas lines to set DFS, weekly lineups

It would be nice if setting your fantasy lineup were as easy as looking at the projected points Yahoo! and ESPN provide for you. One click, done. Instead we’re left groaning up to the minute, inevitably pulling out what hair we have left (wait, do you have hair left?) because of that last-second decision we shouldn’t have made in the first place.

Take my dad, for instance. We were sitting around watching the game Thursday night, portraying a normal family as best we could, when one of those fantasy commercials aired. Being my father, and knowing what I haven’t amounted to with the line of work I chose, he turned his head and asked, “So you can win a million dollars with that thing?” He continued, “Have you done that yet?”

Now, I’m not saying I wouldn’t be watching a football game with my father (who rooted for whichever team was playing Dallas as means to connect with his Cowboys-fan son) if I had won a million dollars at any point last season. However, there’s a greater-than-average chance the watching would be done via Skype and the water bottle sat next to me would be a croissant filled with champagne had that occurred.

My point being, we all know “dads,” and they assume it’s that easy.

Admittedly, what I should have done is show him what I like to refer to as “The List,” or the step-by-step process I endure every week to ensure my results are, at the least, consistent.

For example ...

There are a few more intricacies I like to use, but they’ll all be sprinkled throughout the next too-many paragraphs for the sake of time.

For now, here are your Week 1 matchups and movements (and picks, since we’re trying to cover as much as humanly possible before pulling our hair out) to watch.

(Home team in CAPS)

Vegas Scoring Total: 49 points

We’re one game into analyzing the Week 1 slate and I’m already torn. On the one hand, correlation stacking clearly states that picking the starting running back and wide receiver/tight ends from the same team has a slight negative correlation. It’s only slight, but that type of stuff matters when trying to topple one, let alone 350,000 opponents in both cash games and GPP. On the other hand, EDDIE LACY AND DAVANTE ADAMS. Aaron Rodgers has also been historically great against Chicago (and in general), torching the Bears for 31 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 109.8 QB rating throughout his career. Because of the inevitable out-of-this-world ownership percentage that all three will surely garner, I’ll be fading Rodgers in GPP while continuing to use Adams in all my head-to-heads. Whether you include Lacy in that mix is entirely up to you. Whether you should combine Adams and Lacy is becoming the civil war of the fantasy industry and I refuse to be John B. Hood.

As for the team no one is giving a chance, I’m admittedly going to own too much Jay Cutler, Martellus Bennett and regrets come Sunday. Despite Cutler’s 57 percent completion rate against Green Bay, the Bears’ quarterback has averaged 311 yards during Week 1. Not only that, but Bennett has for whatever reason scored 10 of his 16 touchdowns with the Bears during the first three weeks of the season. Given the high scoring total combined with the fact Chicago will most likely be playing from behind at home, I consider Cutler a fantastic contrarian play that could notch that coveted 300+ yard bonus. Yes, I realize starting Cutler in any format opens the possibility that your lineup finishes last before it’s even set, but if there’s ever a time to attempt it, it’s with a new head coach and offensive scheme during the first week of the year.

And while we’re here, stop picking up James Jones. Sure, he had 14 touchdowns that one time in Green Bay, but take into consideration what we know now: he’s 31 and struggled beating out the juggernaut core of Denarius Moore, Kenbrell Thompkins and Rod Streater during his stint in Oakland. No thanks.

Total: 41

New arrival Jeremy Maclin is sure to make an immediate impact. For starters, it’s assumed his ability to get behind the defense will ensure Andy Reid stops comparing his team’s lack of receiving touchdowns to moldy cheeseburgers. The Texans defense may have nabbed the third-most interceptions last season, but it also gave up 28 passing touchdowns (ninth in the league). Maclin will most likely receive numerous opportunities downfield since the stingy Houston front seven allowed only six rushing touchdowns last year, second only to Kansas City. For Alfred Blue, that probably means a tough day at the office for both him and those who choose to own him.

Blue did average 4.3 yards per attempt during his three starts last season, but two of those came against the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns, both of whom allowed at least 4.5 YPC anyways. Oddly enough, the Chiefs were quietly gashed for 4.7 YPC. If Blue were priced as a starter, I would suggest everyone leave him be. But at his current near-minimum salary, I can’t say I blame anyone for throwing a dart his way.

On the opposite side of the ball, DeAndre Hopkins still isn’t receiving the credit he deserves as a potential WR1. I’m probably not using him on FanDuel this week, but there’s no doubting his ability and feast of targets. Even playing alongside Andre Johnson for 15 games last season, Hopkins surpassed his counterpart by an additional 274 yards and three touchdowns. I would be more than confident moving forward if I owned him in any season-long formats.

Total: 41

(Thinking ...)

Greg Olsen.

Total: 39.5

In what has a spectacular chance to finish as the lowest scoring total of the weekend AND put fans to sleep, there are a few surprisingly great plays for GPPs at MetLife Stadium this Sunday. As mentioned above, the Cleveland defense allowed the fourth-most YPC last season. Danny Shelton is sure to fix that to a certain extent, but I love Chris Ivory in both GPP and cash games this week. With only Bilal Powell and Zac Stacy behind him, Ivory should receive 20+ touches in a matchup that allows him to stay on the field for the entirety of the game. Furthermore, I’m expecting the Jets to be the highest-owned defense because Josh McCown.

Now, please allow me to preface this next sentence by directly stating that I wouldn’t use any (repeat: any) Browns this week. Having said that, my favorite takeaway (besides all of them) from Rich Hribar’s Week 1 Worksheet actually pertains to this game.

Just something to keep an eye on now that we’ve received confirmation that Duke Johnson will play a significant role on Sunday.

Total: 45

Let’s go ahead and get this out of the way: Andrew Luck is going to disappoint a lot of owners this week. In season-long formats, you have to start him unless you were fortunate enough to grab another top-five option later in the draft. But too many owners are going to approach FanDuel thinking he’s guaranteed to throw for eighty billion. In reality, he’s facing a Bills defense that allowed only Ryan Tannehill and Derek Carr to throw touchdown passes following their Week 9 bye last season (shutting down Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady along the way). Considering the line implies that Buffalo will be hanging around, limiting the Colts offense is surely the first part of that equation. Still, T.Y. Hilton being shadowed by rookie Ronald Darby might be worth a flier.

The other solution for the Bills would be Tyrod Taylor. LeSean McCoy has already admitted to not being 100 percent (though I would still consider him a top-15 back given the matchup). I don’t expect Sammy Watkins to account for much offense seeing as he’ll be covered by Vontae Davis throughout the afternoon, and both Percy Harvin and Robert Woods are either rehabbing on the sideline or splitting time as the No. 2 wideout. If anything, Taylor should dazzle with his legs and use Charles Clay to take advantage of a secondary that allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends in 2014. With his minimum cost, Taylor is almost too easy to fit into most lineups.

Total: 40.5

No one is safe. If you were thinking about using Marshawn Lynch, just know he rushed for a combined 76 yards on 26 carries during his last two games at St. Louis. If you were thinking about playing Jimmy Graham, just know the Rams allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the red zone last season. Russell Wilson could connect with Tyler Lockett, but it still seems too early to bank on something we’ve only seen once during the final game of the preseason. And if you were thinking about picking the Seahawks in your office survivor pool, Michael Scott has a message for you.

But since I’m attempting to touch on everything in this column, I guess I should note that Benny Cunningham scored 11 fantasy points at home against Seattle last year. Cunningham, by the way, is the starter this week.

Also, if you’re looking for even more potential brainstorming ideas regarding your fantasy lineup and the NFL as a whole, Seahawks fans lingering around NFL reddit aren’t a bad place to start.

Total: 43.5

San Diego fans lingering around NFL reddit, however ...

It’s not surprising how many will immediately shun Kirk Cousins and the Washington offense. And normally, I would agree. But for this week, there’s really only one way to attack the Miami defense and that’s definitely not by running directly into Ndamukong Suh. Cousins might average nearly two turnovers every time he takes the field, but there’s no denying his fantasy outlook (as opposed to his actual outlook, which ... well, you know.) Cousins, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed could all make for one of the sneakiest stacks of the weekend against a Dolphins secondary that lost Louis Delmas to a torn ACL last month. Much like his expected production every week, Jackson scored at least 17 points during three of Cousins’ five starts. He produced less than five points during the other two.

Unfortunately, not even that can be said about Alfred Morris, who scored seven points or less in four of the five games Cousins was at the helm. His YPC also plummeted, dropping from 4.4 to 3.5 without Robert Griffin III in the lineup. With Matt Jones on the horizon, I can’t imagine any scenario in which I would use Morris, and that notion might extend to fantasy leagues everywhere. As for the Dolphins, you’re starting most of them with confidence. I just don’t know how many I’ll be using in daily lineups with cheaper options potentially involved in higher scoring totals.

Total: 48

This is one of those games where I’ll be watching the movement right up until kickoff. I don’t think the Saints match up well with the Cardinals, especially as it pertains to their pass rush. Furthermore, the absence of Keenan Lewis allows for John Brown to go one-on-one with Brandon Browner (which is the sole reason I’ll have Brown in all of my lineups). Browner led the league with 15 penalties and allowed a QB rating of 109 with passes thrown in his direction. Even if Browner is forced to cover Larry Fitzgerald rather than Brown, Kyle Wilson allowed a QB rating of 111. Did I mention I’m going to own a lot of Brown?

But I’ll still be watching the movement due to the Saints’ one advantage: Mark Ingram. If New Orleans can manage to keep the game close, Ingram and the revamped offensive line can take advantage of a Cardinals defense that allowed 155 rushing yards per game from Week 12 on. Points will be scored, and there are a lot to go around in this one.

Total: 45.5

For the Chargers, it’s more about the undervalued as opposed to those you should pay for. Stevie Johnson and Danny Woodhead are priced as minimum players even though they’re both sure to play a huge role in the offense come Sunday.

Ladarius Green is unlikely to play this week (concussion) which essentially leaves no tight ends for San Diego to throw to. That bodes well for Johnson and a potential uptick in 3-WR sets. Woodhead played only three games last season before breaking his fibula, but finished 2013 as a top-15 back in PPR formats (RB19 in standard). With Branden Oliver listed as the third running back on the initial depth chart, Melvin Gordon’s pass blocking is the only thing stopping Woodhead from seeing an even split of snaps. If you’re looking for cheap “punts,” both Johnson and Woodhead seem like a good place to start.

Though Joique Bell is no longer listed on the injury report, I think Ameer Abdullah became the apple of too many eyes during the preseason. He’ll be highly owned (especially at his low pricing), but I’m not willing to pay for him until I see at least one week of how the Lions choose to unleash their plethora of backs. Detroit will reportedly use him extensively in its passing game, but for what percentage of snaps? For season-long leagues, however, you’re definitely keeping him around.

Oh, and remember that Calvin Johnson guy? You know, the same one who averaged 6-91-1 once returning from injury in Week 9? He has a pretty good chance to catch a few touchdowns this week.

Total: 41

Mike Evans has yet to practice this week and is looking unlikely to play Sunday. Why is that important? Because with the absence of Jason McCourty in the Titans’ secondary, the Buccaneers are now facing THIS.

(Grades provided by Pro Football Focus)

The Titans defense allowed the second-most rushing yards and third-most rushing touchdowns last season, but I don’t think that’s going to be an area the Bucs choose to exploit come Sunday. Vincent Jackson is owned in only 1.8 percent of lineups in FanDuel’s Thursday $350K Bomb. Even with a low scoring total, his ownership (or lack thereof) makes him the perfect tournament play and the reason why he’ll be in 100 percent of my GPP lineups.

If you’re contemplating shying away from Jackson because of Jameis Winston’s poor preseason performance, 1) stop worrying about the preseason and 2) stop worrying in general. Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has done miraculous things with every quarterback not named Blaine Gabbert, even when the offensive line struggled with blocking.

*Grades provided by Pro Football Focus

The Buccaneers were graded as the worst pass-blocking team according to Pro Football Focus last season. As of right now, I’m not too concerned.

Total: 43

Though some might worry about Andy Dalton on the road (and rightfully so), there’s no need to feel the same way about A.J. Green. He tends to do okay when playing away from Cincinnati.

Over the course of his career, Green has averaged 40 more yards per game when on the road than when the Bengals have played at home. If only we could put a finger on Dalton ...

(Wait, what’s that? The Important Tweet alarm is sounding??)

All credit goes to Cincinnati super fan @JoeGoodberry for this outlier among the pantheon of Bengals tweets.

Uncommon refers to teams the Bengals haven’t played during the previous or current season. Basically, if an opponent hasn’t seen Dalton or the Cincy offense in the past year, there’s a good chance we get the good Red Rifle. And in the Thursday Bomb on FanDuel, Green is owned in only 6.4 percent of lineups. I can’t see that number growing immensely by the time Sunday rolls around. Even though we should all continue to awe over the play of Khalil Mack, stacking the Bengals makes for an interesting strategy in GPPs this week.

Total: 48

Even if you have 100 percent of your exposure towards C.J. Anderson, just know it’s not enough. As a starter from Week 11 on, Anderson averaged slightly over 108 total yards and at least one touchdown per game. Being involved in what Vegas projects as one of the highest scoring bouts of the weekend (though the total has moved down a few points since Monday), Anderson is sure to be a focal point of the Broncos offense, whether they have a large lead or are simply attempting to put the game away late. Paying to feature all of Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and even the Broncos defense doesn’t seem like too bad of an option in tournaments.

Though I don’t see any stacking opportunities within the Ravens, I do see numerous punts. When a Vegas total is this high, there are usually a number of players receiving volume. Justin Forsett isn’t coming off the field no matter the score, so that helps. But considering Steve Smith will be playing under the constant umbrella of either Chris Harris or Aqib Talib, numerous targets are out there for both Kamar Aiken and Crockett Gillmore. Punting is best used with a tight end guaranteed to run a high number of routes, and Gillmore seems to fit that mold perfectly.

Total: 51.5

The Giants’ front seven can be punctured without Jon Beason in the lineup, but who’s going to do it? Reports have collided throughout the week, having multiple beat writers name both Darren McFadden and Joseph Randle as the starter at some time or another. The green light goes off once I spot a running back favored by seven points, but it doesn’t seem worth it when we lack concrete evidence. Fortunately, the Dez Bryant and Tony Romo stack is alive and well against the putrid Giants secondary.

A lot of people are going to own Odell Beckham Jr. and I’m not one of them. With Orlando Scandrick out, Beckham is guaranteed to be the focus of a few, if not all, the double-teams. No Victor Cruz means I’m much more inclined to start Rueben Randle. Remember, the Giants offense averaged 62 more yards per game following their week 9 bye than they did during the first half of the season. In 2014 alone, Eli Manning finished 0-2 against the Cowboys but threw for 586 yards and six touchdowns. In what’s looking to close as the second-highest total of the weekend, there should be more than enough volume to go around for Rueben Randle, Larry Donnell and even Shane Vereen (if you assume New York will be playing from behind.)

Total: 55.5

Matt Ryan checks all the boxes of what we’re looking for in a cash game. Underdog? Check. Total over 50? Check. Playing at home? Check, check, check. For these reasons, he’ll be in every cash game I play. I’ll also own a lot of Julio Jones, assuming the Eagles isolate Byron Maxwell to one side of the field much like the Seahawks did. If you’re playing the Sunday-Monday night games only, Leonard Hankerson is also worth taking a look at.

Though he was just named the starter, Tevin Coleman has a tough matchup on paper. Last season, the Eagles limited opposing running backs to 3.7 YPC. Adding Kiko Alonso should only make them better, but Kyle Shanahan is no slouch. Still, I struggle finding a spot for the rookie in any of my DFS lineups. Philadelphia and Atlanta ranked No. 32 and 31, respectively, against the pass last season, so I’m not touching Coleman unless forced to play him in Primetime Only leagues.

Now on to Sam Bradford. There’s a lot to be excited about and he could certainly finish Week 1 as a top-five quarterback, but I think the public perception has gotten out of hand (especially since the Eagles looked great during the preseason). Monday night games usually feature a large number of highly owned players and I’m expecting Bradford to seamlessly fit right into that category. With all the other cheap and viable options available at quarterback this week, I would only sprinkle Bradford into a lineup if you can’t fight the temptation. Something feels funny about the debut of a defensive-minded head coach with more than two weeks to prep for any offense, let alone one they’ve undoubtedly been thinking about for months on end.

Total: 41.5

Remember that discussion we had about paying attention to the movement? In this case, we’re working backwards. The line originally opened in June with San Francisco as 3.5-point favorites. Since then, it’s clearly moved in the direction of the road team. Why? It’s simple: the 49ers lost everyone. That conclusion alone (a correct one, I might add) is what everyone lobbying to win $1 million dollars this weekend is sure to see. Adrian Peterson is the most expensive running back on FanDuel and no one is going to care. What they’re missing, however, is that Minnesota might not have anyone to block for Peterson.

Center John Sullivan will be absent for the first eight weeks and right tackle Phil Loadholt was placed on IR during the preseason. If their offensive line had stayed healthy, this would be the perfect storm for Minnesota; think if John Wick 2 were to begin with the villain targeting a dog pound. Keanu Reaves would be the most livid person on Earth and everyone wins. Unfortunately, that’s not the case.

(SPOILER ALERT: The actual synopsis IMDB has written for John Wick is “An ex-hitman comes out of retirement to track down the gangsters that took everything from him.” “Everything” being his dog. In other news, it’s the greatest movie ever created.)

I think Peterson has a good matchup, but there are enough fairly priced options at running back this week to forego what could result in a disaster play. At this point, Charles Johnson seems like one of the few Vikings players I would be more than willing to own in DFS Monday night. And until I see Carlos Hyde average more than 2.6 YPC as a starter, all San Francisco players can remain undrafted. Anquan Boldin (whom I love in season-long formats) and Torrey Smith could each go for 100+ yards and I would still be glad I didn’t own either of them.

If only it were always that easy, dad.