Prior to kickoff between the Chicago Bears Bears and Green Bay Packers on Sunday, I immediately hopped online and began scoping out ownership percentages. Really, I was only interested in Davante Adams. Having been priced at a near-minimum cost several weeks beforehand, the injury to Jordy Nelson paved way for what was sure to be a flood of exposure. Needless to say, I was right. Adams was owned in 33.4 percent of the lineups entered into FanDuel's $5 Million Sunday Kickoff, the highest rate among all players.
Fantasy football lineup advice, Week 2: Using Vegas lines to set DFS, weekly lineups
We take an in-depth look at the matchups and Vegas scoring totals that could win your league for you in Week 2.
As mentioned last week, I stuck to the plan and faded him in every tourney. All it took was a tweak of the ankle or one dropped pass for the pendulum of value to suddenly swing towards my direction and that, in my mind, was worth it. You know the rest. Adams caught four passes for 59 yards, finishing the day with 7.9 points. My work was done.
That’s one side of the story. The other involves having friends that read your column and, as your friends, call you an idiot when one of your infamous theories goes awry. You know the one I’m referring to.
And while we're here, stop picking up James Jones. Sure, he had 14 touchdowns that one time in Green Bay, but take into consideration what we know now: he's 31 and struggled beating out the juggernaut core of Denarius Moore, Kenbrell Thompkins and Rod Streater during his stint in Oakland. No thanks.
Sigh.
Keep in mind the goal is to limit the dumb decisions we’ll inevitably make throughout the year. Sure, James Jones will probably finish with 750 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns now, but at least the process of getting to that point was the same one that’s made for consistent results in previous weeks. Or at least that’s what I like to tell myself.
Here are the matchups and movements to watch in Week 2.
(Home team in CAPS)
Houston Texans (+3) over CAROLINA PANTHERS
Vegas Scoring Total: 39
In two starts last season, Ryan Mallett threw for a combined 400 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions en route to finishing with a 54.7 percent completion rate. On the other hand, the Carolina offense averaged 3.0 yards per carry and accumulated only 17 first downs last week. Get excited.
But seriously, you have to continue starting DeAndre Hopkins and Greg Olsen in season-long formats. In your FanDuel lineup, however, I would suggest staying away from both. Even though the Texans allowed Travis Kelce to run wild in Week 1, I'm not too sure even the Panthers know what they're doing on offense just yet. And as for Hopkins, it might not exactly be as luxurious as Revis Island, but Josh Norman Island still has free Wi-Fi and comes all-expenses-paid.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Total: 47
If you recall, the eventual 12-4 Dallas Cowboys opened 2014 at home against the 8-8 San Francisco 49ers and faced a 21-3 deficit in a matter of minutes. On that same day, the 2-14 Tennessee Titans walked into Arrowhead and took a 20-3 lead against the 9-7 Kansas City Chiefs heading into the fourth quarter. And last week, the new-look Bucs were forced to rocket all passes in the direction of Austin Seferian-Jenkins after trailing by 21 points in only eight minutes of play. So what did we learn in each of these cases? Absolutely nothing.
When a majority of lines opened on April 25, Tampa Bay was getting only 6.5 points. Yes, public perception matters that much. I’m not buying that anyone, let alone a division opponent is 10 points better than the Buccaneers after only one week of play. Admittedly, I’ll have 100 percent of my exposure on Mark Ingram, but that’s only because running backs favored so heavily at home can’t be passed on. Not only that, but assuming C.J. Spiller is out, there’s a good chance Ingram once again leads the week in targets among running backs. It just comes down to whether we go against the grain and gather enough fortitude before kickoff to nix negative correlation and stack both Ingram and Brandin Cooks. That decision is helped immensely by the fact that I’ve seen both Marques Colston and Brandon Coleman play football (though in season-long formats, Coleman remains worthy of a flex).
Having said all of that, I'm still smart enough to realize Jameis Winston's floor and therefore pass on him. The Saints allowed 4.8 yards per carry last week, so Doug Martin could be heavily featured if, unlike their Titans matchup, game script calls for it. But without Keenan Lewis, there are more than enough opportunities for the Saints to give way to a top-20 WR. Considering Vincent Jackson has caught only three of his last 22 red zone targets, I wouldn't hesitate to punt with a healthy Mike Evans.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6) over San Francisco 49ers
Total: 46
Not to scare you, but it's crucial that I lead this one off with the most important note: Don't pay for Carlos Hyde in tournaments. If you had him last week, great. That was a stupendous pick. But there are few things worse in DFS than being late to the party, and that's still deciding to join that party a week later. Stay at home. Play Madden or something. I don't care, just don't try and make up for what you missed out on. The red flags in this one are endless, including (but not limited to): the line movement, which opened at -5 and has since moved in favor of the home team; game script, which clearly states to avoid running backs on underdogs of greater than four points (especially when on the road); the Steelers front seven, which limited the Patriots backfield to 3.3 yards per carry in Week 1; and public perception, which will include a majority of tickets on a 49ers squad that knocked off the darling Vikings in front of the world. No thanks.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-2.5) over Detroit Lions
Total: 44
All concerns you had with either of these teams last week remained concerns once it was all said and done. Let’s review.
- Adrian Peterson's potential floor wasn't worth his price. Just ask anyone who stayed up to watch that game. Peterson was mauled before reaching the line of scrimmage more times than his actual points scored (6.7). It goes without saying, but I'm avoiding him in cash games until further notice.
- The Detroit defense lost Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley during the offseason and it certainly looked that way. Philip Rivers averaged 9.6 yards per attempt against the Lions secondary and carved them up for 404 yards and two touchdowns.
- Calvin Johnson didn't exactly give hope to all those hinging on another resurgence. Sure, the Chargers bracketed him with every opportunity (hence the performance of Eric Ebron), but his history against Minnesota (71 yards per game, 5.1 catches per game) doesn't bode well for his Week 2 production.
Fortunately for his owners, Ameer Abdullah remained the lone bright spot of the Lions offense. During Week 1, Abdullah out-snapped (21, 17) and out-gained (94, 41) Joique Bell in all aspects of the game. He should be an RB1 in a matter of weeks and remains a great value ($6,400) for those seeking cheaper options at running back. This is probably the last time you'll see his salary in the $6,000 range.
Baltimore Ravens (-6) over OAKLAND RAIDERS
Total: 43
Nope.
New England Patriots (-1) over BUFFALO BILLS
Total: 44
Though the mantra is typically to make room for Rob Gronkowski in your cash lineup if he takes the field on Sunday, I'll defer this week. He doesn't have the type of historical success you would like to see against Rex Ryan (five touchdowns, 57 yards per game), and being involved in a low-scoring total, I prefer to find value elsewhere. As for Tom Brady, he's only eclipsed the 300-yard mark in two of the six games he's faced a Rex Ryan defense on the road. In the other four, he threw for fewer than 250 yards, failing to toss a touchdown in two of them. I would also prefer to wait and see how LeGarrette Blount is used before sneaking him into your lineup.
With Tyrod Taylor no longer available at minimum cost, feel free to look elsewhere to address your quarterback slot. His salary remains reasonable, but there are other quarterbacks priced only a couple hundred dollars more with higher ceilings. I would still feel comfortable starting him in season-long formats, but I'm not sure where he's going to get help if Bill Belichick and the Patriots eliminate their run game entirely. Sure, Sammy Watkins is a good place to start since he played 84 percent of the Bills offensive snaps last week, but he hasn't ... well, see for yourself.
Sammy Watkins' last eight PPR weekly finishes dating back to last year: WR58, WR63, WR88, WR18, WR78, WR20, WR40, WR114
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) September 17, 2015 CHICAGO BEARS (+2) over Arizona Cardinals
Total: 46.5
This column was built on the foundation of games like this one. In other words, the Bears are home dogs for consecutive weeks and I’m terrified. The line has already dropped half a point since opening with the Cardinals as 2-point favorites and will remain on my radar right up until kickoff. If it continues to drop, I would immediately fade all Cardinals in cash games. It hurts to miss out on Carson Palmer and others in a fortuitous matchup, but I’d much rather be safe than sorry. I would feel a bit better about the Bears, however, if Andre Ellington were to sit. I’ve seen CJQuestionMarkK play football and it’s not pretty.
Having said that, I’ll still attempt to find a way to fit Matt Forte in my head-to-heads come Sunday. Not only did he receive the most touches of any player in Week 1 (the exact type of volume we’re looking for in cash games), but Forte also has the benefit of playing behind the 14th-ranked offensive line adjacent to the 31st-ranked defensive line this week. It appears an upset is brewing and I would much rather take Chicago’s side (maybe even Jay Cutler and Martellus Bennett).
CLEVELAND BROWNS (+1.5) over Tennessee Titans
Total: 41.5
If I told you there were a QB/WR stack out there that cost only $11,500 -- less than 20 percent of the allotted $60,000 cap on FanDuel -- and featured an explosive quarterback facing an abysmal secondary, you’d be interested, right? Let’s quickly recycle content from last week.
It's only been one week and it seems like everyone has already forgotten just how exploitable the Titans secondary is. Now admittedly, Johnny Manziel throwing to Travis Benjamin is about as terrifying as it sounds when you're actually invested in it. In fact, the only thing more terrifying would be Josh McCown throwing to Benjamin. But quietly, Benjamin played 61.7 percent of the Browns snaps in Week 1, exactly the type of percentage we're looking for when punting on matchup plays.
On the other side of the spectrum, Kendall Wright had an impressive week and has nowhere to go but up. Despite running only 15 routes, Wright caught all four of his targets for 101 yards. But while everyone will be on Marcus Mariota and ignore the fact that he's facing a Cleveland defense that ranked sixth in yards per attempt last season, I'll be singing with the opposition in most GPPs.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3) over San Diego Chargers
Total: 47.5
In what should result in a surprisingly high-scoring bout, it's probably worth paying up for the same players that found success last week. For the Chargers, those names are once again Stevie Johnson and Danny Woodhead. Johnson's usage was confirmed in Week 1 when he was on the field for 91 percent of the Chargers' offensive plays. On that same note, Woodhead played eight more snaps than Melvin Gordon and received all red zone opportunities. Woodhead should also become the benefactor of even more work, as the Chargers best run blocker (D.J. Fluker) will now miss the next few games with a high ankle sprain. At their next-to-minimum costs, both should yet again be sprinkled throughout your GPPs and cash games.
Tyler Eifert, on the other hand, is a tough one. The dude is incredibly talented and had an obvious impact against the Raiders in Week 1. The problem, of course, is that everyone will surely have exposure towards him. But if the Chargers choose to play A.J. Green the exact way they defended Calvin Johnson, that would most likely result in another monster game for the Cincy tight end. For that reason alone, I might convince myself to stack him with Andy Dalton in a couple of tournaments by Sunday.
And as for non-fantasy related topics, at least we can go to sleep at night knowing Adam Jones felt remorse for his actions.
Adam Jones: "I can't promise it won't happen again. I'm an emotional player." #Bengals @FOX19
— Jeremy Rauch (@FOX19Jeremy) September 16, 2015 St. Louis Rams (-3.5) over WASHINGTON
Total: 41
Remember: when choosing a defense, yards allowed account for much less of your production than takeaways. Much like the Seattle Seahawks last week, Washington could accumulate an abundance of yards against St. Louis. And sure, Kirk Cousins and Pierre Garcon could connect for their fair share of stackable points. But if there are any guarantees in life, they are certainly death, taxes and Cousins interceptions. The Rams are arguably the No. 1 play at defense this week.
If you're not starting Gronkowski and you're passing on Eifert this week, paying for Jared Cook seems like the only other way to go. Against Washington last season, Cook had 61 yards receiving and two touchdowns. With no imminent threat standing in his way of targets and Washington still having one of the better defensive fronts in football, I would be more than happy playing him in most tournament lineups.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-2.5) over Atlanta Falcons
Total: 51.5
Unfortunately, Eli Manning makes all too much sense as a top GPP and cash play this week. He checks every box we’re looking for when going through the motions of finding quarterbacks at home in the midst of a projected total above 48 and, despite what the line says, deemed as an underdog. With Odell Beckham Jr. manned by Desmond Trufant, opportunities will surely be there. It certainly helps that 39 percent of Beckham’s routes came from the slot while Trufant moved inside only twice.
Don't think too hard about which Falcons to play. Assuming Julio Jones takes the field and isn't limited (though it's beginning to look troublesome), he should once again find a home in your cash game. Feel free to spend for Tevin Coleman as well, who accounted for 23 touches to Devonta Freeman's 10. If Jones does actually sit this one out, I expect the Atlanta offense to focus more on running the ball than anything.
Miami Dolphins (-6) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Total: 41
I still don’t understand how the hell Washington found room to run against Miami, but alas, here we are. Either way, there should be no vacancy for Jacksonville players in your lineups this week. (I’ll probably just copy and paste that last sentence over the next 15 weeks.)
Though Jarvis Landry and the Dolphins defense was the stack to own on Sunday, replacing Landry with Lamar Miller seems like the correct move in Week 2. The Jaguars defense actually didn't play all that badly against Carolina. But a road team favored by nearly a touchdown is the type of line we're looking for when scoping out running backs with potential volume. Don't be scared to pay up for all three of Miller, Andrew Franks (kickers need love, too) and the Miami defense. Just cross your fingers Miller doesn't fade into the background over the course of the game as usual.
Dallas Cowboys (+5) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Total: 55
If you think the Cowboys will find success on the ground against the Eagles, think again. Even with Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray manning the offense last season, they struggled to find any daylight outside of passing the ball.
Dallas vs Philadelphia 2014: 67 carries for 208 yards (3.1 per carry). Eagles play with full box to stop run - even w Dez and DeMarco.
— Bob Sturm (@SportsSturm) September 16, 2015For that reason alone, I'll be staying away from the entire Dallas backfield in both GPPs and cash games. But that begs the question: Is Lance Dunbar considered part of the backfield? Against the Giants, Dunbar played 32 snaps and received a whopping zero carries. He lined up out wide for the entirety of the night and in doing so, finished Week 1 as the WR18 in PPR leagues. Without Bryant, his minimum salary might be worth throwing a dart at. For Terrance Williams, however, the opposite rings true.
On the surface, Bryant is injured and that’s all anyone will see. Most will look to the next man in line (Williams), notice his slightly above-minimum salary and immediately slot him into their lineups. But if you took away anything from Week 1, it should’ve been to avoid playing whomever seems like the most obvious candidate to win the Davante Adams “Too Many People Own This Mess” award. Despite his low cost, far too many players will own Williams, making the outside chance he finishes with fewer than 50 yards more valuable than his bottom-dwelling salary. In cash games, I’m all for it. But in GPP, there are only so many ways I can write “Stay Away.”
Philadelphia is implied (hold that thought) to finish with 32 points, leaving a lot of volume for the taking. Unfortunately with the Eagles, said volume remains up in the air. For instance, Nelson Agholor ran the second-most routes for his team Monday night but finished tied with Brent Celek for the fewest catches. Even so, I'll be all over Jordan Matthews (who benefits from playing in the slot against Tyler Patmon) and Sam Bradford (who most likely smuggles friends into the game with his oversized jersey) in all of my cash games.
(As if you needed to remember anything else from this column, implied points are actually simple to equate. Just divide the total by two and add/subtract the line from each team, depending on whether or not they’re favored. In this case, the total is 55.5, meaning the implied points scored are Eagles 32.75, Cowboys 22.75. I know, I don’t understand anything I just said either.)
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3.5) over Seattle Seahawks
Total: 49
In what will likely finish with the bronze medal of projected totals this weekend, both the Packers and Seahawks are expected to put points on the board come Sunday. The Seahawks allowed eight plays of 20-plus yards to the Rams last week, meaning the possibilities for Green Bay are endless. Normally, Randall Cobb would be the first place to look for that type of production. But Richard Sherman led all Seattle corners with 13 snaps from the slot, the exact position where Cobb lined up 89 percent of the time. This week, I’m much more inclined to roster Adams in both GPPs and cash games (go figure). While Jones remains touchdown-dependent (and may even catch another two or so), Adams is a safer bet for more volume.
As for the Seahawks, the woes pertaining to their offensive line just might be enough to scare me off. Marshawn Lynch seems like a reasonable tournament play and could potentially finish atop the running back rankings this week, but I just can’t see myself divvying up the cash when there are so many cheaper options with similar upside available.
New York Jets (+7) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Total: 47
Last week against Vontae Davis, the Bills targeted Watkins a total of three times and he caught none of those throws. As of now, it appears Brandon Marshall will receive that same treatment. Fortunately for Eric Decker owners, Darius Butler has quickly risen up our WHO'S HE COVERING START HIM list. Butler was thrown at six times last week and allowed six receptions for 119 yards and one touchdown. Simply put, get Decker (and to a lesser extent, Ivory) in those GPPs.
As it pertains to the Colts offense, I'll be shying away from Donte Moncrief this week. It could absolutely backfire seeing as Moncrief received 11 targets last week, but given the way Andre Johnson hobbled up and down the field, I won't be shocked to see the Jets relocate Revis Island from the slums of Johnson to the coast of Moncrief. Still, you're picking him up in 100 percent of your fantasy leagues given the opportunity.
You know, sorta like James Jones.
Last Week: 11-4
Week 1 Exposure: Jay Cutler (15.1 points), Tyrod Taylor (15.9), Chris Ivory (22.5), C.J. Anderson (6.5), Eddie Lacy (16.9), Julio Jones (30.6), John Brown (12.6), Vincent Jackson (7.1), Jordan Matthews (15.2), Martellus Bennett (14), New York Jets (17)
Season: 11-4
Week 2 Exposure: Sam Bradford, Eli Manning, Johnny Manziel (if he starts), Matt Forte, Mark Ingram, Tevin Coleman, Jordan Matthews, Davante Adams, Odell Beckham Jr., Travis Benjamin (if Manziel starts), Jason Witten, Martellus Bennett, Dolphins, Rams
