FanDuel strategy, Week 2: Undervalued, Overvalued players

Week 1 is in the books, and with it come the harrowing realities of previous predictions meeting actual production. Last week, I looked at two options per skill position; one came in at a higher than tenable salary, while the other offered a chance for a high return on your investment. Before looking forward to Week 2, let’s see how we did.

Playing Tyrod Taylor at minimum salary got you a decent return (16th among quarterbacks) while my argument against Peyton Manning proved prophetic, as Manning struggled to a dismal 5.9 points. At running back, Eddie Lacy did out produce some of the more expensive options, but he still finished only as RB9, a mediocre return on paying his RB6 salary. Avoiding Gio Bernard was a slightly better play, as his RB19 salary was matched by 11.8 points and RB22 production: he performed exactly as expected, which limits our upside reward.

Our wide out and tight end advice didn’t go exactly as planned. While Alshon Jeffery was correctly avoided, Davante Adams merely put up 7.9 points; he outdid his salary, but not by enough to be excited. At tight end, playing Ben Watson got you a mere 3.4 points, while Ladarius Green of course picked the one week I cautioned against him to finally wake up and score 15.9.

Nonetheless, we move to Week 2 and once more look to find value plays to exploit and players to avoid.

Overpriced: Russell Wilson at GB $8,500

Underpriced: Carson Palmer at CHI $7,800

Our first look at over and underpriced options begins at quarterback, where perennially slept on fantasy provider Carson Palmer once more enjoys a low cost with a plum matchup. Posting over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last outing, Palmer faces a Bears defense currently 29th in passing DVOA and 29th in the same stat for the 2014 season, having been burned by Aaron Rodgers last week in a hyper-efficient performance. With Andre Ellington unlikely to suit up this week, Arizona is likely to look toward the passing attack to move the ball on the lackluster Bears secondary.

Russell Wilson represents the other side of the price spectrum, coming in at our fifth-most expensive quarterback at $8500. He faces a Packers defense ranked eighth against the pass in DVOA but 31st against the rush, having just been trampled by Matt Forte. With the Seahawks already employing a rush-heavy attack—Marshawn Lynch saw 18 carries and five catches against a stout Rams front seven—the likely game plan is a heavy dose of Beast Mode. While Wilson may enjoy a portion of the run game, his passing game upside is limited by the Packers’ weakness on the ground. He very well could put up a top-10 score line, but a top-four investment is far too much money.

Overpriced: LeSean McCoy vs. NE $8,100

Underpriced: Christopher Ivory at IND $6,900

At running back, we have a classic example of overwhelming risk outweighing any sort of potential reward. McCoy, limited in practice all week and officially questionable for the game on Sunday, carries far too much concern to invest in as a daily option, let alone after considering his price of $8,100. While season-long owners may be pot committed with playing McCoy, we have the flexibility and freedom to let someone else stress about injury reports and Rex Ryan’s honesty.

Instead, look to his former team, my beloved New York Jets. Facing a reeling Colts defense freshly overrun by the Bills—an Indy defense ranked 19th in rushing DVOA last year and currently 27th in 2015—the Jets will look to establish the running game early and often. Enter Chris Ivory, battering ram of dread-locked fury that just posted a 22.5 score line in his first game. Unquestionably the lead back, Ivory has a defined workload, a plus matchup, and an offense built around ball control and effective rushing. While he carries the risk of game flow restricting his work, his cheap $6,900 salary mitigates that concern. Fire Ivory as your second running back and use the remaining budget to help pay the Gronk or Antonio Brown tax.

Overpriced: Randall Cobb vs. SEA $8,200

Underpriced: John Brown at CHI $6,200

Elite wide receiver options, priced as the top-10 wide outs (usually $8,000 and up), are often a matter of minimizing risk with your heavy investment. As a cowardly FanDuel player myself, I try and identify certain problematic indicators to help choose between these expensive options. The first centers on a player’s health: with Mike Evans nursing a balky hamstring and only a limited participant in practice, the red flag of re-injury or limited usage keeps me away. Second, I like to adjust for matchup as best as possible: I preached caution for the Broncos aerial attack last week against the rejuvenated Ravens secondary, and that kept me away from Demaryius Thomas. This week, Randall Cobb offers a brutal combination of these two factors without any adjustment of salary to reflect that situation. He is both battling through an AC joint injury and facing a Seahawks secondary that, even without Kam Chancellor, represents a less than ideal matchup. While Cobb can very well have a decent game for year-long leagues, investing $8,200—the fourth-highest salary of the week for wide outs—is a recipe for minimal return.

John Brown represents the other end of the financial spectrum, coming in this week at $6,200. Brown posted a solid, if unspectacular stat line last week, reeling in four catches for 46 yards and a touchdown. He, like Carson Palmer above, faces an incredibly burnable defense. The Bears offer the type of juicy matchup that entices a risky, but affordable play like Brown. Stack him with Palmer as a cheap duo and enjoy the rewards.

Overpriced: Jermaine Gresham at CHI $5,300

Underpriced: Jason Witten at PHI $6,000

Tight end selections in daily fantasy essentially break down into three questions: are you willing to pay the Gronk or Graham tax? If so, you’ll have to find the budget across the remaining positions to pay Gronk’s $8,300 salary or Graham’s $7,100. If not, are you looking for a second tier option? These will be your Bennett, Witten, Olsen, Eifert, or Jordan Cameron tier, the options between $5,400 and $6,100. Lastly, if you’re avoiding both of those and want a complete dart throw, who do you target?

All three approaches carry certain risks and rewards. A heavy investment like Gronk does give you the potential for elite production, but it does limit your flexibility on other vital positions. A mid-table investment like Greg Olsen seemingly serves as the best of both worlds, but you can easily end up with 1.6 points and a ton of missed value. Minimum salary prayers can get you a cheap touchdown and extra budget, but they’ll more often than not end up with a fantastic goose egg.

With that in mind, we’ll highlight two disparate options that represent differing values for our daily games. First, we’ll look for stability at the mid-tier with Jason Witten, priced currently at $6,000 and facing the Eagles this week. Witten, fresh off a nine-target, eight-catch for 60 yards and two touchdowns stat line, enters Week 2 as the best option among his price range. His consistent usage, likely to increase with Dez Bryant’s injury, coupled with the Vegas line of 55 points hints to a high scoring affair with plenty of fantasy opportunities. Witten is $1,100 cheaper than Graham and $2,300 cheaper than Gronk, while offering excellent upside.

Conversely, Jermaine Gresham is a minimum salary dart throw currently priced as a top-12 option (coming in as the 11th-most expensive tight end). In Week 1, Gresham saw all of one target—a reception for four yards—while his teammate Darren Fells saw five targets, turning that usage into 16.2 points. His salary may represent some sort of name recognition tax, but you should not invest $5,300 for minimal targets. Eric Ebron at $4,800 or Delanie Walker at $5,200 are cheaper, more exciting prospects.