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FanDuel strategy, Week 3: Undervalued, Overvalued players
We enter Week 3 with a ton of surprises. The Jets are undefeated, the Seahawks are winless, and the predictions provided by this space thus far have returned some success. Let’s take a look at last week’s results before checking out FanDuel value plays for this upcoming slate of games.
At quarterback, we advised avoiding Russell Wilson, who scored 23.04 points at $8,500, and highlighted Carson Palmer as a cheaper play, which netted you 22.2 points at a cheaper $7,800. Our running back advice was less ideal, as LeSean McCoy out-produced my expectations with 13.1 points (albeit at a $8,100 salary) while Chris Ivory struggled through his health concerns to only snag 7.0 points. Advising against Randall Cobb and Jermaine Gresham proved accurate, as neither scored anywhere close to their salary price points, but our replacement options of John Brown and Jason Witten only returned mediocre production.
Now, we’ll look toward another round of value plays for the Week 3 slate.
Overpriced: Andrew Luck at TEN - $9,000
Underpriced: Russell Wilson vs. CHI - $8,400
For quarterback this week, we’re looking to the top echelon of prices to determine who to play and who to avoid. Andrew Luck comes in as the second-most expensive option at $9,000, as the Colts travel to Tennessee to face the Titans. His price point retains the legacy of his world-beating 2014 campaign, as Luck’s production in the first two weeks has been mediocre at best. While Luck and the Indianapolis offense are too talented to struggle all season, paying for 2014 Luck production without seeing a week with elite results is a tricky proposition.
Instead, look to Russell Wilson as your quarterback this week. A variety of promising and near-ideal benefits surround Wilson in Week 3. The Seahawks return home after two brutal road losses, they welcome back their star safety, and they’ll look to take all their frustrations out on a hapless Bears team missing its starting quarterback and any semblance of a defense. In the first two weeks of the season, opposing quarterbacks have combined for seven touchdowns and just 12 incompletions against Chicago, efficiently eviscerating this porous secondary. Wilson’s floor elevates with his re-established ground game, rushing 10 times for 78 yards last week against Green Bay. He is the sixth-most expensive quarterback this week but fully capable of ending it as QB1. My only concern is that the Seahawks so dramatically destroys the Cutler-less Bears that they stop throwing by the third quarter.
Over: Matt Forte at SEA - $8,400
Under: Frank Gore at TEN - $7,000
As expected, there’s a ton of upside at the top for running backs this week. Le’Veon Bell returns ready to ascend to fantasy glory, while Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson both have juicy matchups against mediocre defenses. Among the top 10 backs per price, Matt Forte gives me the most pause and reason for concern. Battling a knee injury, Forte has been limited in practice and faces a Seahawks defense welcoming back Kam Chancellor and very eager to avenge its winless start. The Bears will also head to Seattle with Jimmy Clausen at quarterback, essentially the NFL version of bringing a lamb to slaughter. Save your money and invest elsewhere.
While Andrew Luck may not have received the discount for his slow start, Frank Gore has dipped from $7,500 in week one to a mere $7,000 this week. Last week’s box score doesn’t accurately reflect the exciting production from Gore: he had several runs brought back due to penalties away from the play, a fluke fumble at the goal line that robbed him of a likely score, and a brutal matchup against the Jets’ elite defense. This week, he faces a middle-of-the-pack Titans rush defense that ranks 16th in yardage allowed and 17th in rush DVOA. Look for Gore to get back to his high-end RB2 preseason hype with a nice bounce-back performance in Week 3.
Over: Calvin Johnson vs. DEN - $8,200
Under: Allen Robinson at NE - $6,600
Calvin Johnson enters Week 3 with one great game and one mediocre game under his belt. Struggling largely due to Matthew Stafford’s slow start, Calvin has barely retained his top-10 value thus far and certainly does not deserve his fourth-highest salary for Week 3. The Lions head to Denver to battle the league’s top pass defense in both DVOA and yardage allowed (with an absurdly low 133.5 yards per game so far). The nominal WR1 in each of those Denver matchups struggled to produce anything, as Jeremy Maclin scored 7.5 while Steve Smith mustered a mere 2.3 points. Megatron is an alien life form hellbent on football destruction, but even he will struggle with an ailing quarterback and a brutal matchup.
Instead, look to Week 2’s darling, Allen Robinson, as your cheaper pick. Robinson exploded for 30.5 points in week two, hauling in six catches for 155 yards and two touchdowns. He faces a Patriots defense that has been burnt each week by the nominal WR1, with Sammy Watkins scoring 15 points last week and Antonio “Demigod” Brown enjoying 23.8 points in the season opener. Robinson is only $6,600 this week, an indication that FanDuel and other players don’t buy into the hype. I would much rather have Robinson at that price point than pay $6,800 for Golden Tate or $7,200 for Vincent Jackson.
Over: Jason Witten vs. ATL - $6,000
Under: Kyle Rudolph vs. SD - $5,300
And, finally, we reach the undefined abyss of non-Gronkowski tight end production. Among the second tier tight end options, Witten has the unenviable combination of health concerns—somehow he’s going to play through two sprained ankles and a sprained knee—and Brandon Weeden as his starting quarterback. While the logic of backup quarterback’s safety blanket does point toward Witten as a decent option, the risk of him playing hurt and Weeden’s general awfulness tell me to stay away at $6000.
Instead, look toward Kyle Rudolph as a cheaper fill-in. Rudolph has enjoyed a nice start to the season, averaging 9.65 points. He faces a San Diego team that appears vulnerable to the tight end, having allowed a touchdown each week to the opposing TE (Tyler Eifert scored 12.9 on them, while Eric Ebron put up 13.3). At $5,300, he’s below the second tier options but still offers a great chance at solid production.
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