One of the biggest headlines of an eventful NFL offseason came when the New Orleans Saints shipped Jimmy Graham off to the Seattle Seahawks in exchange for Max Unger and a first-round draft pick.
Fantasy football draft strategy 2015: Jimmy Graham too risky for a 3rd-round pick
The Seattle Seahawks got themselves one of the best players in the game when they traded for Jimmy Graham this summer. But is he too much of a risk for fantasy owners to draft early? We break down the fantasy implications:
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While it certainly alters the balance of the NFC, it also turned fantasy teams with Graham on the roster upside down. In New Orleans, Graham was a top-tier talent with fantasy production aplenty, averaging the fourth-most fantasy points per game in 2014 despite dealing with a shoulder injury. But now, his prospects are murkier in his new city.
Fantasy Spin: There's no question regarding Graham's upside, and he is justifiably being selected as the second tight end off the board behind Rob Gronkowski.
The issue is, the Seahawks threw the ball 200 times fewer than the Saints did in 2014, and that trend could continue when they already employ the NFL’s arguably most ferocious runner in Marshawn Lynch. It’s reasonable to expect that the Seahawks’ offensive philosophy takes Graham’s target numbers way down from his 138 in 2014.
Graham can mitigate lower targets with a high touchdown rate, which is absolutely possible. But for someone to bank too highly on a variant statistic like touchdowns is risky for any fantasy owner, even one that has one of the game’s best red zone threats.
Owners should absolutely target Graham in drafts, but his average draft position of the third round is too-high an investment when guys like Emmanuel Sanders, DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans will likely be on the board.
