Fantasy football projections, Week 12: Chargers-Texans featuring Melvin Gordon, Philip Rivers, Lamar Miller, more

The Week 12 matchup between the San Diego Chargers and the Houston Texans features a pair of solid running backs trying to lead their teams to victory. We’ve got the fantasy projections courtesy of numberFire.

The good news is quarterback Philip Rivers threw three touchdown passes against the Miami Dolphins in Week 10 heading into the team’s bye week. The bad news is he also threw four interceptions in the game. He has thrown eight interceptions over the past four weeks and each of his 11 picks have come in the last seven games.

Rivers will be hard-pressed to put together a turnover-free effort against the Texans, a team that ranks sixth in the league at defending fantasy quarterbacks. Rivers will still put together big yardage numbers and find the end zone for multiple touchdowns, but if he reaches beyond his projections in Week 12, it likely won’t be by much of a margin.

A better bet to perform this week would be running back Melvin Gordon. Gordon ran 24 times for 70 yards against the Dolphins, but saved his fantasy day by making a few catches out of the backfield, adding value in PPR formats. As good as the Texans are against quarterbacks and wide receivers, they are exactly that bad against running backs, ranking in the bottom third of the league.

That bodes well for Gordon. Given that Rivers has had trouble taking care of the football, the coaching staff would be wise to run it a lot in Houston. Gordon could be the only Chargers player to surpass his projections in Week 12.

If the reality of the Brock Osweiler/DeAndre Hopkins era hasn’t sunk in with Hopkins’ fantasy owners by now, let this be a news flash that it’s time to lower expectations. Hopkins did catch five of his six targets against the Oakland Raiders in Week 11, but he finished with just 58 receiving yards. The effort marked the eighth time in 10 games that Hopkins has been held under 60 yards. His 2016 season has been nothing short of disappointing.

Few fantasy owners will blame him, but they will still be upset that they drafted him. He may or may not reach his projections in Week 12, but it’s safe to say his expectations are lower now than they were at the start of the season. It might be best to start benching Hopkins in favor of a hot waiver wire pickup.

In light of Hopkins’ struggles, running back Lamar Miller is a little bit of a safer option as far as consistent fantasy production is concerned. Miller carried the ball 24 times for 104 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders, notching his third 100-yard rushing game of the season.

Miller now has 243 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the last three games combined. Only four teams in the NFL ranked lower than the Chargers at defending fantasy running backs. Miller should surpass his projections in Week 12.