Fantasy football projections, Week 12: Seahawks-Buccaneers featuring Doug Baldwin, Thomas Rawls, Mike Evans, more

The Week 12 matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be decided by a wide margin. We’ve got the fantasy projections courtesy of numberFire.

Running back .C.J. Prosise has been plagued by injuries throughout his young career. The injury bug struck again as Prosise injured his shoulder midway through the team’s Week 11 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. He is now likely out for the remainder of the fantasy season. Prosise’s absence means Thomas Rawls is a No. 1 running back again. Rawls had 57 rushing yards on 14 carries against the Eagles. He started the season slowly losing his starting job to Christine Michael and getting hurt. Now the Seahawks have no choice but to give him the ball. Rawls will almost certainly surpass his projections in Tampa based on the fact there is now nobody to compete with him in Seattle’s backfield. That’s especially true now that Michael is with the Green Bay Packers.

If Rawls struggles, wide receiver Doug Baldwin will be counted on to help the passing game move the ball. Much like last season, Baldwin appears to be turning it on in the second half. He caught four out of five passes for 104 yards against the Eagles, and scored three touchdowns the week before that against the New England Patriots. Even with tight end Jimmy Graham playing better lately, Baldwin is still going to be Russell Wilson’s go-to guy the rest of the season. The Buccaneers ranked 25^th in the league against opposing passing games. There’s no reason Baldwin won’t ball out in Florida this week.

Fantasy owners looking for the most reliable fantasy option on Tampa Bay’s roster need to look no further than wide receiver Mike Evans. He will, however, have his hands full against the Seahawks. Only one team has given up fewer touchdowns to receivers than Seattle this year. The good news is that Evans has been targeted just over 12 times per game in 2016. That’s too big of a number to look away from in fantasy leagues. Especially in PPR formats. Evans will be covered by Richard Sherman on Sunday, but he has both the talent and the volume to warrant topping his projections in any given week.

On the other hand, running back Doug Martin is far from a sure bet when it comes to going beyond expectations. His fantasy production has been on-again, off-again for his entire career. Injuries have played a role in that roller coaster. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, he appears to be on the downside of that ride once again. Consider that Martin is averaging just 2.4 yards per carry since returning from injury. Increasing that average is going to be tough against Seattle’s stout defense. Take the conservative approach and assume that Martin will not hit his numbers in Week 12.