Fantasy football projections, Week 13: Dolphins-Ravens featuring Jay Ajayi, Kenneth Dixon, Steve Smith, more

The Week 13 matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens features two teams with interesting situations in the backfield. We’ve got the fantasy projections courtesy of numberFire.

The title of top rush defense in the NFL belongs to the Baltimore Ravens. That doesn’t bode well for fantasy owners of Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi. While Ajayi did score a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12, he rushed for only 45 yards in the game despite receiving 18 carries. That’s a 2.5 yards per carry average. That’s a pitiful number considering the 49ers are one of the worst run defenses in the league. It’s hard to imagine Ajayi rising above his projections against Baltimore. He has cooled off considerably since putting together back-to-back 200-yard rushing games earlier this season. Considering the Dolphins were missing three starters in their offensive line in Week 12, Week 13 may be just as rough for Ajayi.

Wide receiver Jarvis Landry is probably more likely to surpass his projections. Not only does he get targeted regularly in the passing game, there’s also a good chance DeVante Parker won’t be in the lineup. Parker missed practice during the week with a back injury. Landry’s role in the offense has been somewhat reduced with the running back going off, but he may just reprise his role as a reception machine now that Ajayi is cooling off. Landry caught just four passes for 47 yards against the 49ers. He might go well north of 10 targets this week. That should get him past his projections.

After finding the end zone in three straight games, wide receiver Steve Smith was shut down by the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12. Smith caught all four of his targets in the game but finished with just 20 receiving yards. It’s obvious that he still has a lot to give despite his advanced age, but he needs to do better with the fantasy playoffs around the corner. Only two receivers have generated more than 50 yards against the Dolphins over the last five weeks. Smith should get plenty of targets in Week 13, but to expect him to be a top performer right now is unrealistic given the matchup. It’ll be tough for Smith to reach his projections on Sunday.

Fantasy owners looking for more upside wouldn’t be totally ludicrous to consider starting rookie running back Kenneth Dixon in Week 13. He’s slowly but surely taking carries away from teammate Terrance West. Dixon turned 17 touches into 80 yards combined last week. He averaged 3.8 yards per carry. That’s not spectacular but he’s improving every single week. Dixon should be up to his projections against Miami and could be the starting running back once the fantasy playoffs get started.