Top daily fantasy football plays for Conference Championship weekend

Welcome to the Conference Championship round of the Daily Fantasy season, the final weekend for NFL action until Preseason 2017. Playoff DFS presents its own challenges with limited player pools and more defined roles for starters. That said, there are still plenty of value opportunities across all positions. This article looks at some of the best plays, some low-owned, some underpriced, who could provide huge boosts to your tournament lineups, as well as some trap plays to avoid.

One thing we notice, particularly when compared to DraftKings, is that the pricing for the four quarterbacks is pretty tight. Only $1,600 separates top and bottom, as opposed to a $2,300 gulf on DK. The main takeaway here is that if you’re not getting a huge break on salary, you might as well pay up for the guy in the best position to post the biggest score, and that is Ryan, who should have Julio Jones at full disposal in a game with an over-under of 61.

The only reason I didn’t go with Aaron Rodgers ($9,600) here is the uncertainty surrounding his receivers, as Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison all are listed as game-time decisions. If they’re all active — or at least if Nelson and one of the others are active — then Rodgers probably goes back to being my top option, as he was the only one of the remaining four QBs to consistently post 30+ games down the stretch with a healthy receiving corps at his disposal.

Because the over-under is a paltry 51 compared to the NFC game, Big Ben and Tom Brady ($8,300) are the “discount” options this weekend. If I’m going to save salary at QB to pay up at the other skill positions, I’m going to take the full discount and go with Roethlisberger, especially if we think that the Patriots will sell out to contain Le’Veon Bell.

What makes Ben and Brady most appealing is that they will both be underowned, with most of the love going to Ryan and Rodgers. The Steelers pass defense has been pretty tough down the stretch, and Brady looked almost human last week against Texas. Of the two, I think Roethlisberger is more likely to go off.

As mentioned, all four QBs are legit options this weekend. I think Ryan and Roethlisberger make the most sense for tournaments for the reasons listed above, but with the pricing fairly tight for all four, you really can’t go wrong picking any of them.

I love Le’Veon Bell. I really do. But this week, on the road, against a Patriots defense almost certain to make him the focus of attack, and with a $9,500 price tag and likely high ownership, it all adds up to a tournament fade. Basically, if you want three times the salary out of your high-priced players, you need Bell to drop a 28.5 on the Patriots 3rd-ranked defense or you need 24 points from Freeman against a weaker Packers run D.

Bell has reached 29.5 just twice in his past seven games. Freeman has topped 24 three times in his past six games. Basically, look at your roster construction, and if the $1,500 difference doesn’t change your lineup plans, feel free to ride the Bell train. But I’m guessing that $1,500 could play a huge role at other positions in a week where Bell and Freeman might have similar point production.

Regardless of which high-priced running back you install as your No. 1, Montgomery is the ideal play as RB2. Montgomery is the perfect storm of production this week. The Packers receiving corps is devastated with injuries, meaning Montgomery should get more pass targets than he usually sees as the main running back. And no team in the NFL gives up more production to pass-catching running backs than the Falcons. Montgomery is in a perfect spot on the salary list, as New England’s Dion Lewis is just $100 more and is expected to garner ridiculous ownership for his expected level of production (see below). Grab Montgomery and rake in the winnings.

Lewis’ price has shot up by $1,600 after his Sayers-esque three-touchdown game last week. Does anyone really expect Lewis to go for three touchdowns again? He rushed for 41 yards and caught two passes for 23 yards. Take away just one of the touchdowns (the kickoff return, especially) and it was a nice game but hardly a “worth $7,000 game.” Add to that his expected spike in salary, and he is an easy fade this week.

If, as I anticipate, the Patriots are going to put their main focus on limiting Le’Veon Bell, it could leave Brown in a great spot to garner double-digit targets in man-to-man coverage. Now obviously, Malcolm Butler is the real deal at corner and he kept Brown from really going off the last time Roethlisberger started against the Pats in the season opener in 2015. But Brown still put up a big game that night, and combined with kick return duties, could be lined up for a massive game in this one. I’m also not sure how much I trust Julio Jones with his toe injury, making Brown the safer of the top two receivers.

Edelman is the Patriots passing game right now, and Brady is going to look his way all afternoon. The only knock on Edelman is his seeming inability to get into the end zone, but you can easily see a 10-120 line in this one, making a potential touchdown the icing on the cake. He is priced reasonably and could be the beneficiary of that $1,500 savings (or more) if you use him in a Bell-less lineup.

If Jones is at all limited, Sanu is certain to be the receiver who picks up the slack. At $3,000 less than his teammate, Sanu is a terrific salary-saving pivot who almost matched Jones in FanDuel points last week thanks to his late touchdown. He’s certainly in play for any Falcons-heavy stacks and could really pay off if you fade Julio altogether.

He’s a game-time decision, but even if he plays, it’s hard to see him being a major factor while nursing those ribs (and apparently dealing with a separate illness). That price tag just screams stay away, especially with Brown just above him and Edelman just below.

I’m not sure when the Steelers are going to make a definitive call on Ladarius Green, but all indications are that he won’t be cleared to play. The best hope for FanDuel players is no word before the Packers-Falcons game locks, causing players to shy away from James because they think Green might play and steal targets. The entire world is going to be on Jared Cook at $6,400, so James, who looked really good last week, gets the benefit of crazy-low ownership and a decent discount. Even if Green does play, James will be a target in the red zone. Trust him.

I’ve been down on Bennett all season, and I’m not about to stop now. The guy looks totally disengaged, he gets hurt on every other play, and he hasn’t topped five targets since mid-November. Maybe he gets in the end zone, but I’m not risking my lineup on it.