Fantasy football, Week 5: Running backs to start and sit

Week 5 of the fantasy football season is here, and we’re back with another crop of start/sit options. We have a nice set of data about each team through four weeks, and can make informed decisions on good plays and traps. With that in mind, we’ll pick quarterbacks who should exceed expectations in Week 5, along with three you should probably sit.

Matt Forte is looking like another DNP this week, and Powell was sensational last week in the lead role. He does have a couple of factors working against him, in that the Browns defense is actually much better this year against the run and they are getting some key pieces like Danny Shelton back from injury. And Elijah McGuire is also carving out some space in the backfield, which could limit Powell to an extent. But Powell is still clearly the main man here and the Jets will get him heavily involved.

Ellington is certainly no David Johnson, but in one critical respect, Ellington is doing a really fine imitation. Over the past two games, Ellington has received 22 targets out of the backfield, the kind of numbers DJ posted regularly. With the Cardinals essentially abandoning the running game, Ellington is like a slot receiver with running back eligibility. If you’re in a PPR league, Ellington needs to be a weekly staple in your lineup, as his floor is around 10 points with all the receptions he’s scooping up.

Let’s just say this about Crowell: If he can’t get it done this week, he’s never going to. The buzz around the Browns is that this is the week they really commit to making the running game work and the Jets are just being eaten alive by opposing running backs this season. Crowell has been an enormous bust through four weeks, with Duke Johnson Jr. making some noise in PPR leagues, but if the Browns really do commit to Crowell this week, the opportunity is there for a nice game.

On most teams, the downgrade of Derek Carr to E.J. Manuel would be a huge upgrade for the lead running back. But against the Ravens, even with their defense weakened by the loss of DT Brandon Williams, it’s hard to get excited about Lynch this week. He hasn’t been much of a factor since Week 1 and he has limited (at best) pass-catching ability, so to have success, he’s going to have to reach back into the rejuvenation machine and do it between the tackles. I can’t see the Raiders giving him 20 carries and him being able to turn them into a big game.

Sure, Dalvin Cook going down last week was the biggest story in fantasy, but Chris Carson’s season-ending injury is likely to have a bigger fantasy impact. At least Cook owners knew the next man up was Latavius Murray. In Seattle, it’s back to the great unknown of Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy and guys like J.D. McKissic and C.J. Prosise lurking and trying to guess who will be each week’s hot hand is going to be a nightmare. Rawls appears to be the guy this week, and on paper, he should have success against a bad Rams run defense, but can you really trust him?

It really pains me to list Cohen in the sit section, because I have such a man-crush on the guy and have been using him in my own season-long PPR league since drafting him with my final pick. But there has been a pattern of diminishing returns with Cohen, and the Vikings defense will almost certainly key on stopping Cohen and Jordan Howard and make Mitchell Trubisky beat them in his first career start. The whole Bears offense has a giant “Stay Away” sign posted on it this week.