Can Max Verstappen pull off one of F1’s greatest comebacks?

When the Formula 1 season resumed following the Summer Shutdown, two of the major storylines facing the grid centered on McLaren:

First, when would they clinch their second consecutive Constructors’ Championship title?

Second, when would either Oscar Piastri or Lando Norris lock down the Drivers’ title?

However, thanks to a dominant win in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, another question has emerged.

Can Max Verstappen complete one of F1’s greatest comebacks?

When the grid went silent after the Hungarian Grand Prix, where Verstappen finished ninth, F1 entered the Summer Shutdown with Piastri leading the Drivers’ Championship race with 284 points. Norris, thanks to wins in three of the four races ahead of the break, was second with 275 points, just nine points behind his teammate.

Verstappen was a distant third with 187 points.

But much has changed since then.

Verstappen finished second to Piastri in the Dutch Grand Prix -- where Norris failed to finish after his MCL39 suffered an engine failure -- and won the next two races, the Italian Grand Prix and the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. That puts him just 44 points behind Norris in second, and 69 points behind Piastri.

Courtesy of Flourish, here is how the F1 Drivers’ Race has changed since the Hungarian Grand Prix:

After capturing pole position in a dramatic qualifying session on Saturday at the Baku City Circuit, Verstappen went wire-to-wire in the race itself, taking the Azerbaijan Grand Prix for his second-straight win.

With Piastri crashing on the opening lap and Norris failing to capitalize after that incident and settling for a seventh-place finish, Verstappen inched closer to his rivals for the title, perhaps setting up a dramatic final stretch of the season.

“They’re all a bit different, but I think this weekend has been incredible for us. Of course, last weekend was already great. But yeah, for us to win here again is just fantastic,” said Verstappen trackside after the race. “And I think also in the race, the car was working really well. On both of the compounds, we had clean air all the time, and you could then look after your tyres. And yeah, it was pretty straightforward. Of course, it’s not easy around here — very windy today, so the car is always moving around a lot. But yeah, of course, incredibly happy with this performance.”

Can he pull off this dramatic comeback?

If he does, it would go into the books as the biggest comeback in the Drivers’ title race when it comes to the points deficit. Sebastian Vettel came back to win a title in 2012 by just three points after trailing Fernando Alonso by 24 points with eight races remaining, and 39 points with seven races left. Kimi Räikkönen won the title in 2007 despite trailing by 17 points with just two race weekends left, that season using a different scoring format than the current system.

Vettel was also down by 31 points during the 2010 season to win the title in the finale in Abu Dhabi, moving into the championship lead for the first time all season in the final race of the year.

There is also John Surtees coming back from 20 points down with five races left in 1964, and the famous duel between James Hunt and Niki Lauda in 1976, which saw Hunt come back from 17 points down in 1976.

But 69 points with seven races left? That would be a staggering achievement.

However, math and history may not be on his side, something the living legend conceded after the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

At this point last season, Verstappen enjoyed a 59-point advantage over Norris in the Drivers’ Championship race. That gap closed to 52 points when Norris won the Singapore Grand Prix in dominant fashion.

But that was as close as the title chase got a year ago, with Verstappen eventually clinching his fourth Drivers’ Championship in Las Vegas and ultimately winning the title by 63 points.

While he is mathematically alive, as RaceFans noted via their Championship Points Calculator, even if Verstappen were to win the seven remaining grands prix -- as well as the three sprint races -- Piastri finishing second in each of those events would see the Australian driver through to his first title.

By a gap of 17 points.

Asked in Azerbaijan if the two recent wins have given him a “smidgen of hope” that the title is within range, Verstappen pointed to the uphill climb.

“I mean, I don’t rely on hope. But it’s seven rounds left – 69 points is a lot. So I personally don’t think about it,” said Verstappen. “I just go race by race, what I have been doing basically the whole season — just trying to do the best we can, try to score the most points that we can. And then after Abu Dhabi, we’ll know.”

Beyond the math is the history. While Monza and the Baku City Circuit have been fertile ground for Verstappen, Singapore, the site of this week’s race, has been a thorn in his side over his illustrious career. Verstappen has never won in Singapore, with his best finish coming a year ago when he finished second to Norris.

More than 20 seconds behind.

Verstappen noted that history after winning in Azerbaijan.

“Difficult to say at the moment, but for sure the last two race weekends have been amazing for us. Singapore — completely different challenge again with the high downforce. So we’ll see what we can do there,” said Verstappen trackside.

“Well, I have never won. Red Bull has won, right? We’ll see. It’s completely different. High downforce. A lot of deg on the tyres, so we’ll see what happens. I really don’t know at the moment,” added Verstappen.

To put the task in front of Verstappen another way, consider this. F1 has raced at 25 different circuits since the 2022 season. Verstappen has won at 24 of those tracks.

The 25th?

Singapore.

Two impressive weeks have put the prospects of a fifth Verstappen title back on the table, and put the Red Bull driver into a position he has not been in since 2021: As the hunter, and not the hunted.

If his tremendous form continues through Singapore, and he breaks through with his first win in that race?

Watch out.

One of F1’s greatest comebacks would be upon us.