How McLaren can clinch the Constructors’ Championship at Singapore Grand Prix

Could this week decide the 2025 Formula 1 Constructors’ Championship race?

McLaren certainly hopes so.

The Woking-based operation entered the Azerbaijan Grand Prix with a commanding 337-point lead over second-place Ferrari, putting a championship on the table for McLaren in Baku. But with Oscar Piastri crashing on the opening lap of the race, and Lando Norris settling for a disappointing seventh, the team endured their toughest race weekend of the entire season, and the champagne stayed on ice.

Now, the grid heads to the Singapore Grand Prix for one of the most physically demanding races on the calendar, but Team Papaya has another chance to cool down after the race with some bubbly.

Let’s walk through the ways McLaren can clinch the title this weekend.

They enter the week with 623 points on the season, and only two teams (Mercedes and Ferrari) are still mathematically alive. Mercedes enters the Singapore Grand Prix with 290 points, and Ferrari is four points behind them with 286.

With seven grands prix remaining, along with three F1 Sprint races, the maximum number of points a team can claim over the rest of the season is 346. A driver (and team) secures 25 points for a grand prix victory, 18 points for a P2 in a grand prix, eight points for an F1 Sprint race win, and seven points for a P2 in an F1 Sprint race. A one-two finish in a grand prix is worth 43 points, and a one-two finish in an F1 Sprint race is worth 15 points. Therefore, the most a team can score over an F1 Sprint weekend is 58 points. Three of those weekends remain (the United States Grand Prix, the São Paulo Grand Prix, and the Qatar Grand Prix) this season.

Thus, hypothetically, Ferrari (or another team chasing McLaren) could go one-two in every grand prix and F1 Sprint race the rest of the way and claim 346 points.

After the Singapore Grand Prix, there are only 303 points available, meaning McLaren needs to be 303 points clear of the team in second place to clinch the Constructors’ Championship in Baku. With 12 Grand Prix victories, McLaren has already secured the most race wins this year, so if the Constructors’ Championship standings see McLaren tied with another team atop the standings after the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, McLaren will retain the title due to tiebreaker rules, with grand prix wins being the first tiebreaker.

Red Bull is closest to McLaren in this category thanks to Max Verstappen’s four wins, but he cannot catch them with seven race weekends remaining.

So, how can McLaren clinch this weekend?

By scoring 13 points.

13 points would move McLaren to 636 points on the season. Let’s they secured exactly 13 points, with one of their drivers finishing fourth for 12 points, and the other finishing tenth for one point. Right now Mercedes is in second with 290 points. Even if they scored a front-row lockout with George Russell and Kimi Antonelli finishing one-two, that would net 43 points, moving Mercedes to 333 points on the season.

A gap of 303 points.

Even if Mercedes ran the table from there — and McLaren never scored another point — the teams would finish tied with 636 points, and McLaren’s 12 wins would clinch them the title on a tiebreaker, ahead of Mercedes’ eight wins in this scenario.

As for Ferrari, if McLaren scores exactly 13 points to move to 636 on the season, a one-two from Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton would increase their points total to 329, leaving them more than 303 points behind McLaren.

While a P4 and a P10 would net McLaren exactly the 13 points they need, they have many combinations to reach that mark. Here is how points are allocated for an F1 Grand Prix:

First: 25 points
Second: 18 points
Third: 15 points
Fourth: 12 points
Fifth: 10 points
Sixth: 8 points
Seventh: 6 points
Eighth: 4 points
Ninth: 2 points
Tenth: 1 point

So, as long as one of their drivers finishes on the podium, they’ll reach that 13-point threshold. Or a P4 and a P5 would be enough, as would a P5 and a P6.

There have been only two races this year (Canada and Azerbaijan) where both Piastri and Norris missed the podium.

There is evey a way that McLaren can clinch if both Norris and Piastri finish outside the points, which has not happened this season. If McLaren does not score a single point (and remains on 623 points) then Mercedes would need to score 31 points to get inside that gap of 303 points, and push the title race on to the United States Grand Prix. That would mean getting both drivers on the podium, something that has happened just once this season in Canada.

As for Ferrari’s title chances, they would need to score at least 35 points in a scenario where McLaren does not bring home a single point, which would mean a race win and the other driver on the podium.

Ferrari has yet to win a race this season, and Lewis Hamilton has not finished on the podium in a grand prix.

McLaren missed out on clinching a title in Azerbaijan, but their second consecutive Constructors’ Championship is very much on offer this weekend in Singapore.