Hungarian Grand Prix tire strategy options

Charles Leclerc surprised everyone, including himself, when he took pole position for the Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix ahead of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris.

Beating them over one lap is one thing, but keeping those two fast McLarens behind him is another.

But that is the task ahead of Leclerc, and strategy options may play a big role. Here are the strategy options for the Hungarian Grand Prix.

The main storyline from the 2024 Hungarian Grand Prix focused on Oscar Piastri securing his maiden F1 Grand Prix victory, and the team orders from McLaren to Lando Norris that aided in that effort.

Beyond the “Papaya Rules,” however, the 2024 Hungarian Grand Prix was largely a two-stop affair for the teams and the drivers. Every driver who finished in the top eight, including Piastri and Norris, utilized a two-stop approach. The McLaren pair went with a medium-hard-medium strategy while Lewis Hamilton, who joined them on the podium with a third-place finish, went with a medium-hard-hard strategy.

Yuki Tsunoda was the highest-finishing driver to complete the 2024 Hungarian Grand Prix with a one-stop strategy. Tsunoda began the race in P10, started on a set of mediums, and made it until Lap 29 when he stopped for a set of hards that went the distance for him.

As for Lance Stroll, who finished tenth, he was the only driver in the points to utilize the soft compound. Stroll began on a set of soft tires from P8, pitted on Lap 14 for a set of mediums, and went until Lap 45 on those, when he stopped for hard tires.

As with last year, Pirelli has designated the C3, the C4, and the C5 tires as the options for the Hungarian Grand Prix. The C3 is the hard, the C4 is the medium, and the C5 is the soft.

However, unlike last year, when those were the three softest compounds in Pirelli’s range, this year the presence of the C6 tire means Pirelli has not opted for the softest three compounds available.

According to Mario Isola, Pirelli’s Director of Motorsport, the two-stop approach remains the fastest option for teams in 2025.

“If the race is dry, the two-stop strategy using mainly hard and medium tires is clearly the fastest,” said Isola in Pirelli’s post-qualifying report.

Under this approach, drivers would start on the C4 medium compound until a pit window between Laps 16 and 22, when they would pit for a set of hard tires. Then they would pit again between Laps 40 and 46 for another set of hards, running until the end of the 70-lap race.

However, the approach Stroll used last year — starting on a set of softs, then using both the medium and he hard — could be in play for teams, particularly due to the strength of the undercut. Last year, pitting early aided several drivers, including Hamilton, who pitted on Lap 16, triggering Norris on Lap 17 and then Piastri on Lap 18 to cover him off, setting the team orders drama into motion.

This year, a driver could start on a set of softs to both make up ground and pit early for an undercut strategy, and then use both mediums and then hards to make it the full 70 laps.

“Among the two-stop options, the strategy involving all three compounds cannot be ruled out, starting on softs to try and make up places early on and then potentially exploiting clean air after the first pit stop,” said Isola. “Overtaking is far from easy here and the undercut is highly effective.”

Drivers using this approach would start on softs and run until Laps 8 to 14 for their pit stop. If they make the switch to mediums, they would run until Laps 32 to 38 to pit for hards, but if they run a soft-hard-hard strategy, the second pit window would open up around Lap 38.

As far as a one-stop approach using the medium and the hard tire, starting on the mediums would see drivers extend an opening stint until Laps 25 to 31 before stopping for hards.

As diagrammed by the official F1 website, here are the various strategies:

Also from F1, here are the sets of each compound each driver has available:

Something to note about two of the drivers at the front: Piastri and Norris. Both have just one new set of mediums and one new set of hards available. But do not rule out McLaren trying a one-stop approach with one or both drivers, given how well the MCL39 has handled degradation this season. While that approach is slower on paper, if the weather is cooler, that will keep degradation down, and might open the door to teams trying this approach.

There is also an off-ramp available if teams try a one-stop with the medium and then the hard, and start to lose lap time. They can pivot to a two-stop approach late in the race, perhaps for a brief stint on softs.

There are also ten drivers (Oliver Bearman, Hamilton, Carlos Sainz Jr., Franco Colapinto, Kimi Antonelli, Tsunoda, Pierre Gasly, Esteban Ocon, Nico Hülkenberg, and Alexander Albon) who have a new set of softs available. One or more of these drivers might opt to start on the softs and aim to combine early grip with an undercut as noted above to make up positions on the track.

As with last week’s Belgian Grand Prix, the forecast for Sunday’s Hungarian Grand Prix could upend everything.

“There’s a good chance the weather could change for tomorrow with the possibility of rain, mainly in the morning but also likely during the race,” said Isola in Pirelli’s post-qualifying report.

“However, unlike a week ago in Spa, I think that today all the teams have set up their cars for the dry at a track where usually, aero levels are set at maximum. The change in the weather, especially as regards temperatures, could lead to some changes in the pecking order, as was seen in the closing stages of today’s qualifying,” said Isola. “All it took was a drop of about ten degrees in temperature, a few drops of rain, and a 90-degree shift in wind direction at key points, such as Turn 5 and the final sector, to mix things up and, more importantly, for lap times to get slower, by half a second from Q2 to Q3.

“We have not yet fully analysed the data so we can only come up with some general observations, namely that the drop in temperature may have affected the warm-up on the preparation lap, and not everyone adapted to the changing conditions.”

Current forecasts for Budapest call for rain on Sunday morning and potentially more rain in the early afternoon before race time. There is even a chance of rain in the closing laps of the race.

Yeet another wrinkle to consider.