The green jacket won’t be awarded until Sunday, but we don’t need to wait that long to figure out who will claim it. Even with 54 holes to play, we can use Masters history, recent trends and the process of elimination to narrow the field down to one. A lot of things have happened over the years at Augusta National and while there are firsts and rarities, things ultimately tend to repeat themselves. So let’s use that information to start cutting down the field.
After 18 holes, we already know who will win the 2014 Masters
They’ve only played 18 holes at Augusta, but with the help of some Masters history and the process of elimination, we can already pick the winner.
No players withdrew following the first round and the cut won’t be made until after the second round, so right now we are still left with the full field of 97 players.
Players remaining | ||||||
Bill Haas | Matteo Manassero | Russell Henley | Sergio Garcia | Martin Kaymer | Dustin Johnson | Jason Dufner |
Louis Oosthuizen | Rory McIlroy | Thongchai Jaidee | Matt Jones | Chris Kirk | Ryan Moore | Chang-Woo Lee |
Adam Scott | Francesco Molinari | Matt Kuchar | Hunter Mahan | Joost Luiten | Ian Woosnam | Hideki Matsuyama |
Bubba Watson | Jordan Spieth | Patrick Reed | Larry Mize | Mark O'Meara | Y.E. Yang | Jordan Niebrugge |
Jonas Blixt | Sang-Moon Bae | Charl Schwartzel | Jose Maria Olazabal | Vijay Singh | Angel Cabrera | Craig Stadler |
K.J. Choi | Bernhard Langer | Henrik Stenson | Thorbjorn Olesen | Scott Stallings | Peter Hanson | Ben Crenshaw |
Marc Leishman | Graeme McDowell | Boo Weekley | Webb Simpson | Derek Ernst | Zach Johnson | Branden Grace |
Brandt Snedeker | John Senden | Mike Weir | Keegan Bradley | Matthew Fitzpatrick | David Lynn |
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Kevin Stadler | Kevin Streelman | Lee Westwood | Jason Day | Oliver Goss | Michael McCoy |
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Jimmy Walker | Steve Stricker | Steven Bowditch | Ken Duke | Sandy Lyle | D.A. Points |
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Gary Woodland | Nick Watney | Darren Clarke | Ernie Els | Phil Mickelson | Tom Watson |
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Fred Couples | Thomas Bjorn | Brandon de Jonge | Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano | Garrick Porteous | Tim Clark |
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Rickie Fowler | Roberto Castro | Victor Dubuisson | Lucas Glover | Ian Poulter | Luke Donald |
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Stephen Gallacher | Stewart Cink | Harris English | Billy Horschel | Justin Rose | Trevor Immelman |
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Miguel Angel Jimenez | Jamie Donaldson | Jim Furyk | John Huh | Matt Every | Graham DeLaet |
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We can eliminate nearly half the field right off the bat because in the 77-year history of the Masters, only one player has shot a 75 or worse in the first round and gone on to win. Assuming no one pulls a Craig Stadler circa 1982, we are probably safe to cut the bottom 45 players on the leaderboard. That means goodbye to Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose, Keegan Bradley, Zach Johnson, Dustin Johnson, Jason Dufner and others.
Players remaining | |||
Bill Haas | Matteo Manassero | Russell Henley | Sergio Garcia |
Louis Oosthuizen | Rory McIlroy | Thongchai Jaidee | Matt Jones |
Adam Scott | Francesco Molinari | Matt Kuchar | Hunter Mahan |
Bubba Watson | Jordan Spieth | Patrick Reed | Larry Mize |
Jonas Blixt | Sang-Moon Bae | Charl Schwartzel | Jose Maria Olazabal |
K.J. Choi | Bernhard Langer | Henrik Stenson | Thorbjorn Olesen |
Marc Leishman | Graeme McDowell | Boo Weekley | Webb Simpson |
Brandt Snedeker | John Senden | Mike Weir |
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Kevin Stadler | Kevin Streelman | Lee Westwood |
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Jimmy Walker | Steve Stricker | Steven Bowditch |
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Gary Woodland | Nick Watney | Darren Clarke |
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Fred Couples | Thomas Bjorn | Brandon de Jonge |
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Rickie Fowler | Roberto Castro | Victor Dubuisson |
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Stephen Gallacher | Stewart Cink | Harris English |
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Miguel Angel Jimenez | Jamie Donaldson | Jim Furyk |
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That leaves us with 52 players, but we can drop a few more based on their first-round scores. No player in the history of the Masters has ever won after being lower than a tie for 33rd following the first round. That means the likes of Jim Furyk, Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia and Hunter Mahan are out.
Players remaining | ||
Bill Haas | Matteo Manassero | Russell Henley |
Louis Oosthuizen | Rory McIlroy | Thongchai Jaidee |
Adam Scott | Francesco Molinari | Matt Kuchar |
Bubba Watson | Jordan Spieth | Patrick Reed |
Jonas Blixt | Sang-Moon Bae | Charl Schwartzel |
K.J. Choi | Bernhard Langer | Henrik Stenson |
Marc Leishman | Graeme McDowell | Boo Weekley |
Brandt Snedeker | John Senden | Mike Weir |
Kevin Stadler | Kevin Streelman | Lee Westwood |
Jimmy Walker | Steve Stricker |
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Gary Woodland | Nick Watney |
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Fred Couples | Thomas Bjorn |
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Rickie Fowler | Roberto Castro |
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Stephen Gallacher | Stewart Cink |
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Miguel Angel Jimenez | Jamie Donaldson |
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Now down to 39, we can trim a few more players thanks to an over par score. Seven players have been over par after 18 holes and gone on to win, but only one — Tiger Woods in 2005 — has pulled off that feat in the last 15 years. For this purpose, were going to assume that trend stays true. Sorry, Matt Kuchar, Lee Westwood and Charl Schwartzel.
Players remaining | |
Bill Haas | Matteo Manassero |
Louis Oosthuizen | Rory McIlroy |
Adam Scott | Francesco Molinari |
Bubba Watson | Jordan Spieth |
Jonas Blixt | Sang-Moon Bae |
K.J. Choi | Bernhard Langer |
Marc Leishman | Graeme McDowell |
Brandt Snedeker | John Senden |
Kevin Stadler | Kevin Streelman |
Jimmy Walker | Steve Stricker |
Gary Woodland | Nick Watney |
Fred Couples |
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Rickie Fowler |
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Stephen Gallacher |
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Miguel Angel Jimenez |
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Just like that, we’re down to 26 contenders. Of those, six are 40 years or older, which is bad news for their chances. Six players have won a green jacket after turning 40, but none have done so in the last 15 years. Mark O’Meara was the last to do it when he won in 1998. Experience can be a virtue, but not at Augusta. See ya, Fred Couples, Steve Stricker and others.
Players remaining | |
Bill Haas | Rickie Fowler |
Louis Oosthuizen | Stephen Gallacher |
Adam Scott | Matteo Manassero |
Bubba Watson | Rory McIlroy |
Jonas Blixt | Francesco Molinari |
Marc Leishman | Jordan Spieth |
Brandt Snedeker | Sang-Moon Bae |
Kevin Stadler | Graeme McDowell |
Jimmy Walker | Kevin Streelman |
Gary Woodland | Nick Watney |
Youth hasn’t exactly fared well either, with only three players winning the Masters before their 25th birthday. Maybe in a few years, Rory McIlroy, Matteo Manassero and Jordan Spieth.
Players remaining | |
Bill Haas | Gary Woodland |
Louis Oosthuizen | Rickie Fowler |
Adam Scott | Stephen Gallacher |
Bubba Watson | Francesco Molinari |
Jonas Blixt | Sang-Moon Bae |
Marc Leishman | Graeme McDowell |
Brandt Snedeker | Kevin Streelman |
Kevin Stadler | Nick Watney |
Jimmy Walker | |
That leaves us with just 17 players remaining. Augusta isn’t kind to first-timers with just three players with only Fuzzy Zoeller, in 1979, taking it in his rookie appearance. That eliminates Jonas Blixt, Kevin Stadler, Jimmy Walker and Stephen Gallacher.
Players remaining | |
Bill Haas | Rickie Fowler |
Louis Oosthuizen | Francesco Molinari |
Adam Scott | Sang-Moon Bae |
Bubba Watson | Graeme McDowell |
Marc Leishman | Kevin Streelman |
Brandt Snedeker | Nick Watney |
Gary Woodland | |
In the last 20 years, only Tiger Woods in 1997 won the Masters after either missing the cut, or not appearing in the event the year before. That doesn’t bode well for Louis Oosthuizen, Gary Woodland, Francesco Molinari, Sang-Moon Bae, Graeme McDowell and Kevin Streelman.
Players remaining |
Bill Haas |
Adam Scott |
Bubba Watson |
Marc Leishman |
Brandt Snedeker |
Rickie Fowler |
Nick Watney |
And then there were seven. Previous success has played a role at the Masters, with just one of the last 15 winners taking home the green jacket despite never logging a top 25 finish at Augusta before. That eliminates Rickie Fowler.
Players remaining |
Bill Haas |
Adam Scott |
Bubba Watson |
Marc Leishman |
Brandt Snedeker |
Nick Watney |
Only twice in the last 20 years has a player been in first or second place following the first round and gone on to win. So while Adam Scott, Bill Haas and Bubba Watson are off to great starts, it doesn’t bode well.
Players remaining |
Marc Leishman |
Brandt Snedeker |
Nick Watney |
And then there were three. In the 77-year history of the Masters, no player named Brandt has ever won a green jacket. The same can be said for golfers named Marc. Sorry Brandt Snedeker and Marc Leishman, blame your parents.
Players remaining |
Nick Watney |
And there you have it, highly sophisticated science tells us Nick Watney will be your 2014 Masters champion. Seems legit. No pressure, Nick.
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