It should come as no surprise, but Martin Kaymer is a heavy favorite to win the 114th U.S. Open. The German machine is now 1/2 to win his second major championship, sitting on a six-shot 36-hole lead at Pinehurst No. 2.
2014 U.S. Open odds: Martin Kaymer overwhelming favorite at Pinehurst
Much like the leaderboard, the oddsmakers have a runaway favorite to win the U.S. Open with 36 holes to play.
That margin matches Rory McIlroy (2011) and Tiger Woods (2000) for the largest lead at this point in a U.S. Open. His two-day total of 130 after back-to-back rounds of 65 is the lowest mark in U.S. Open history, edging that masterpiece by McIlroy at Congressional by a shot. It’s hard to see Kaymer regressing back to the field at this point, and it’s even harder to see anyone chasing him down. If the USGA makes conditions much tougher, as is their wont, that should actually be better for Kaymer. After winning The Players a month ago, we knew we’d hear more from Kaymer again ... just not this soon and in not such a convincing manner.
McIlroy is listed as the player with the next lowest odds, but he’s only 17/1. So the oddsmakers have this as much of a runaway as the current state of the leaderboard, where Rory is nine shots off the pace. It’s actually a pretty loaded and good leaderboard, except for that guy waaaay out in front. Of the talented group clustered down around 2-under and 1-under, I think Keegan Bradley, at 33/1, is probably the best value option. He’s never played particularly well at the U.S. Open, but this is an untraditional setup and he seems comfortable and in form at 2-under. Those are also better odds compared to the guys around him.
Here are updated odds, via Bovada, heading into the third round at Pinehurst:
| Player | Odds to Win |
| Martin Kaymer | 1/2 |
| Rory McIlroy | 17/1 |
| Brendon Todd | 20/1 |
| Henrik Stenson | 20/1 |
| Dustin Johnson | 22/1 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 28/1 |
| Jordan Spieth | 30/1 |
| Kevin Na | 30/1 |
| Adam Scott | 33/1 |
| Keegan Bradley | 33/1 |
| Matt Kuchar | 33/1 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 55/1 |
| Brendon De Jonge | 66/1 |
| Brooks Koepka | 66/1 |
| Chris Kirk | 80/1 |
| Ian Poulter | 80/1 |
| Justin Rose | 80/1 |
| Jason Day | 100/1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 100/1 |
| Francesco Molinari | 125/1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 125/1 |
| Steve Stricker | 150/1 |
| Graeme McDowell | 200/1 |
| Jimmy Walker | 200/1 |
| J.B. Holmes | 250/1 |
| Victor Dubuisson | 250/1 |
| Webb Simpson | 250/1 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 300/1 |
| Danny Willett | 300/1 |
| Erik Compton | 300/1 |
| Jim Furyk | 300/1 |
| Marcel Siem | 300/1 |
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