2016 Indy 500 preview: Mixing patience with going flat-out is the key to winning

“In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable,” once said Dwight D. Eisenhower, the 34th president of the United States and supreme commander of allied forces of the Europe campaign during World War II.

The essence of that quote is that while having sound strategy is key, in the heat of the moment the unexpected will inevitably occur and plans will then need to be adjusted accordingly.

On Sunday, 33 drivers will enter the 100th running of the Indianapolis 500 with an idea of what they need to win. For some that means having to overcome an unfavorable starting spot, for others that requires positioning themselves near the front to better make a late charge, while others want to avoid making a mistake that translates to lost track position, which can be difficult to recoup.

In a race that is often unpredictable, where the draft can equalize between the haves and have nots, and a driver’s mistake can easily and quickly ruin someone else’s chances, Sunday’s winner will not just be decided by who has the superior car and team, but who can best acclimate to the ever-changing circumstances.

“It’s tough to plan anything because you don’t know what the others are going to do ... so I really don’t have a plan,” Tony Kanaan said. “My plan is to start the race. If there is a gap, I’m going to go for it.”

The “go for it, go hard” mindset is a popular one. With attrition no longer the concern it once was due to the reliability of cars and parts, just finishing the Indianapolis 500 doesn’t assure a solid result. Each of the past two races has seen a record 20 drivers finish on the lead lap, making track position critical.

No one has had more success in the Greatest Spectacle In Racing than Roger Penske, whose 16 Indianapolis 500 victories is more than three times the next closest team owner. Because he fields multiple entries, a typical Penske game plan is to place his drivers on divergent strategies; therefore he’s covered should an unanticipated scenario arise.

But while Penske drivers Helio Castroneves, Will Power, Simon Pagenaud and defending race winner Juan Pablo Montoya may employ varying pit tactics -- how long to go on a fuel run, when to stop, etc. -- on the track all four will have the same approach as Kanaan.

“I think that track position is going to be so important all day long,” Penske said. “You just can’t be in the back and expect to win. So we’re going to run hard. ... It’s going to be flat-out. I think that it’s going to be hard to pass.”

Then Penske added the caveat that hearkened back to Eisenhower’s onus on remaining flexible.

“It’s hard to tell until you’re really in the race who’s got the speed and who doesn’t,” Penske said. “So we’ll see what happens.”

Penske’s expectation that passing could be a chore would be a rapid departure from the pack racing that’s been prominent the past three years. That change is brought about by IndyCar Series officials trying to create some separation and help prevent cars from lifting off the ground, a significant issue in 2015. They did so by altering the aerodynamic body kits supplied by Chevrolet and Honda, primarily through the use of a domed skid plate at the bottom of the chassis and rear flaps.

In the buildup to Sunday the Penske drivers have focused their attention in practice on setting their cars to run as low as possible around the 2.5-mile oval.

“You’re not going to be able to pass if you’re just running in the middle of the track,” Penske said. “Our guys have been working on getting that car to be down where they can run under the white line.”

The challenge in completing passes has drivers stressing the need to be patient. To get by someone will require setting a competitor up down the straightaways, then sling-shotting underneath upon corner entry, where the majority of passing is likely to occur.

“You’re going to have a tendency of people being extremely impatient and putting where two cars don’t fit,” Kanaan said. “Patience is going to be a big factor here because it’s not as easy to pass as it used to be in the recent years. Being extra cautious I don’t think is going to be a bad thing.”