Over at The GM’s Perspective, Devon Teeple offers a couple of striking predictions:
Prescribing Path To Cooperstown For Rays’ Johnny Damon
Johnny Damon is on the cusp of reaching a statistic that almost guarantees entry into the Hall of Fame; 3,000 hits.
Wait a second. The cusp? Guarantees?
I wouldn't say he's on "the cusp" of 3,000 hits. Not quite yet. Derek Jeter needs 74 hits to reach 3,000. He's on the cusp. You might say Alex Rodriguez, still an excellent player and only 328 hits away from 3,000, is on the cusp.
Johnny Damon needs 429 hits and he’s 37 years old.
Granted, Damon has been wonderfully healthy throughout his career, in fact that’s why he’s on the cusp of being on the cusp. Damon’s been a major leaguer for 15 full seasons, and he’s played at least 141 games in all 15.
He’s been highly consistent lately, too, finishing each of the last four seasons with just north of 600 plate appearances.
So I wouldn’t put 3,000 hits past him. But he’s a marginal player already, given his poor defense and lack of power. Leaving aside the injury possibilities -- and again, he’s always been able to stay in the lineup -- Damon’s on the cusp of simply not being good enough to play regularly enough to collect 429 hits before he’s out of work.
He’s most likely to fall short, I think.
But what if he doesn’t? Does 3,000 hits guarantee Damon’s entry into the Hall of Fame?
I’m not convinced about that, either. Lou Brock is the only questionable Hall of Famer with 3,000 hits -- purely in terms of something like Wins Above Replacement, I mean -- but he had all those stolen bases. As good as Damon’s been, he doesn’t have anything extra at all, statistically speaking, and never finished higher than 13th in MVP balloting.
It’s not easy to predict what the Hall of Voters in 2025 might do. But I’m not sure there’s anything Damon can do to get in.
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