World Series Game 6: The state of the Astros’ and Dodgers’ bullpens

If you’ve seen the movie Children of Men, you’ll remember the famous scene in which a flaming car is pushed down a hill to block a road and begin an assault. If you’ve seen the 2017 World Series, you’ll remember the famous scenes in which a flaming bullpen is pushed onto the mound to block a win and begin an assault. The homage is both obvious and striking.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. When I wrote the headline “Bullpens are going to decide the 2017 World Series,” I acknowledged the potential for nonsense, but I was still coming from a position of relative optimism about the ability of the Dodgers’ bullpen to control every game. The extra month has caught up to both teams, however, which means tired arms and pitches in the middle of the plate.

Who will the teams turn to in Game 6? Who can they turn to? Here’s a quick look at the options, with notes about how they’ve performed in the World Series, starting with the ...

Innings pitched in World Series: 1⅔
Last pitched: Game 4
Effectiveness: He’s faced 11 batters, and they’ve hit .444/.545/.889 against him.
Possible availability for Game 6: Oh, he’s available. Which might be the problem.

Notes: There have been no official announcements, but it’s hard to call Giles the closer at this point. A.J. Hinch stuck with Brad Peacock and Chris Devenski in two recent save situations, with mixed success, at the expense of Giles. He’s clearly gassed, but I would still think he’s one of the relievers in a glass case for the Astros in Game 6.

Innings pitched in World Series: 4⅔
Last pitched: 1⅓ innings in Game 5
Effectiveness: He currently has a 7.71 ERA in the World Series, but that also includes Puig’s one-handed home run. I’m not sure if that should be a demerit against a pitcher.
Possible availability for Game 6: Likely available.

Notes: Devenski probably isn’t a last resort, but he probably won’t be the ace reliever in the trickiest of late-inning spots this time. He’s been effective at times (Games 1 and 4), and the off day helps with whatever fatigue comes with pitching four out of five World Series games.

He’s probably the Astros’ best reliever right now, until you get to the starting pitchers who are moonlighting.

Innings pitched in World Series: ⅓
Last pitched: ⅓ of an inning Game 5
Effectiveness: He faced one batter and struck him out
Possible availability for Game 6: Available for several innings, if needed

Notes: One of the most well-rested relievers the Astros have, the only reason he’s not being relied on more is because he was having an Astros’ bullpen in the World Series kind of year already. He was extremely susceptible to the home run (he gave four in his last 7 IP in September), so you can understand why Hinch has been wary. I’m not sure if there’s a way to keep him out of the game now, though.

Innings pitched in World Series: 2 IP
Last pitched: ⅓ of an inning in Game 5
Effectiveness: He hasn’t allowed an earned run of his own, but he has allowed two inherited runners to score.
Possible availability for Game 6: Available, and probably one of the first lines of defense again.

Notes: Maybe the trick is to let Harris start his own inning instead of calling on him to be a fireman. The (reportedly) slicker baseballs aren’t helping his slider-heavy ways, but he’s thrown just 13 pitches combined over his last two outings, so he’s relatively rested.

Innings pitched in World Series: 2
Last pitched: All of those innings came in Game 5
Effectiveness: He walked three and gave up three runs and a homer
Possible availability for Game 6: Limited.

Notes: McHugh as a potential answer to Kenta Maeda was inspired. At least, it seemed that way when he came into Game 5. He pitched four brilliant innings against the Yankees in the ALCS, and he had the same kind of semi-impressive resume in the regular season that Maeda did.

It didn’t work out as well, but I would think Hinch could try again in Game 7. Probably not on Tuesday night, though.

Innings pitched in World Series: 3
Last pitched: An inning in Game 5
Effectiveness: He was scoreless in Games 2 and 5, but gave up two runs in Game 4
Possible availability for Game 6: Available.

Notes: Musgrove has been in Hinch’s circle of trust this postseason, coming into all three of his World Series games in the eighth inning or later. He threw just nine pitches when he picked up the win in Game 5, so he should be available.

Innings pitched in World Series: 5
Last pitched: 1⅓ innings in Game 5
Effectiveness: He was brilliant in Game 3, but he got hit hard in Game 5 on just two days’ rest.
Possible availability for Game 6: Not until the 12th inning or so, I’m guessing. And probably not even then.

Notes: If the Astros win one of the next two games, Peacock will be a folk hero for his extended save in Game 3. He was a surprising entry into Game 5, though, and it didn’t work out. He’s probably out until Game 7.

Innings pitched in World Series: Wait, he’s on the roster?
Last pitched: Whoa
Effectiveness: That’s wild
Possible availability for Game 6: Available!

Notes: His arm is fresh, skipper! Liriano was a struggling mess when the Astros acquired him, but they figured they could straighten him out in relief and have a super weapon. It hasn’t worked out that way. The last time he pitched was October 18, in Game 5 of the ALCS. He worked a scoreless inning, allowing just a walk.

It might be time to deploy him in this series, though, just because he’s one of the fresher arms. I’m not saying he’s a great candidate to do the Brad Peacock thing, but if he shows up in the middle innings and it looks like he has command of his slider, don’t forget that command makes him one of the nastier pitchers in baseball. He’s definitely someone to watch.

Innings pitched in World Series: 5⅔ (as a starter)
Last pitched: Game 3
Effectiveness: He had “trouble with the curve” ha ha, sorry, but no, he was all over the place.
Possible availability for Game 6: He is the secret weapon.

Notes: Before there was Brad Peacock, there was McCullers’ brilliance in Game 7 of the ALCS. He threw four innings and struck out six to get the save.

The problem here, though, is that his kill pitch is a curveball that can often fall out of the zone. The Yankees’ hitters were helpless against it. The Dodgers’ hitters spat on it. That isn’t to say that he doesn’t stand a chance against them, but Hinch will have to be wary about trying to recapture that earlier magic.

Innings pitched in World Series: 3
Last pitched: Game 5
Effectiveness: He allowed a home run in Game 5, but so did you. It was his only earned run of the postseason, though, in seven appearances.
Possible availability for Game 6: The off day means he’s available.

Notes: I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cingrani come into some higher-leverage situations in where you would normally see Brandon Morrow. He’s been effective for most of the postseason, and he can work against lefties and righties.

Innings pitched in World Series: 4
Last pitched: Game 5
Effectiveness: He was pummeled in Game 5, but nearly untouchable in the postseason before that
Possible availability for Game 6: If it gets to the 15th inning, maybe?

Notes: Morrow has pitched in every game this World Series so far, which is remarkable, considering how infrequently he pitched in even two consecutive games during the regular season. He was gasssssssed in Game 5, to the point where he even apologized for asking to come in the game. I would think he would have to be saved for a potential Game 7, although the scheduled off day could factor into Dave Roberts’ decision.

Innings pitched in World Series: 4⅔
Last pitched: ⅔ of an inning in Game 5
Effectiveness: He’s been brilliant, but his last outing was his worst one
Possible availability for Game 6: Available, but not for a bullpen-saving multiple-inning stint

Notes: I’m old enough to remember when Maeda was a solid-not-great starting pitcher (last month). His transformation into Robb Nen has been one of the better stories of the postseason. But it’s worth asking just how real those first nine innings are, especially now that the Astros have seen him several times. He threw 2⅔ innings in Game 3 and came right back two days later, which became his only ineffective outing of the month. There’s probably a lesson for Dave Roberts, there.

Innings pitched in World Series: 1
Last pitched: Game 2
Effectiveness: Two earned runs and the loss
Possible availability for Game 6: Available

Notes: I don’t remember if it was the first or second pitch McCarthy threw that made me laugh, but one of them did. It was a sinker that shot across the plate like he had drilled holes in the baseball. It was an amazing, hilariously effective pitch.

But he couldn’t keep it going, possibly because he was rusty. The talent is still there, and this might be the Dodgers’ answer to a multiple-inning stint if they don’t want to burn Maeda. I’m all for a McCarthy-Liriano showdown from the seventh inning on. Give us that chance.

Innings pitched in World Series: 3⅓
Last pitched: Game 5
Effectiveness: Other than a hiccup in Game 2 of the NLDS, he’s been nearly perfect
Possible availability for Game 6: Available

Notes: Watson has appeared in each of the last four games, including all three in Houston, but he’s been economical. He threw just nine pitches in each of his last two outings, so I would guess the scheduled off day puts him right back on track to pitch an inning in Game 6.

Innings pitched in World Series: 5⅔
Last pitched: Game 5
Effectiveness: He’s given up runs in each of his last three outings
Possible availability for Game 6: Still available, of course.

Notes: He’s still the best reliever in the game, perhaps, but he’s thrown 13⅔ innings (and 190 pitches) in October. He’ll close if the Dodgers have a lead, but it’s hard to see them going the super-reliever route and extending him for multiple innings, especially with a possible game looming tomorrow.

I know that he was already warmed up to come into Game 4, so Dave Roberts figured he might as well shut the door, but those unnecessary 14 pitches (and additional looks for Astros hitters) sure seem like a mistake from here.

Innings pitched in World Series: Zero, technically, though he faced three batters
Last pitched: Game 2
Effectiveness: His ERA is ∞, which seems bad
Possible availability for Game 6: Available

Notes: With the news about the balls being less amenable to sliders and the pitchers who rely on them, doesn’t Game 2 make more sense? Fields is a slider guy, and his sliders were a mess in his only appearance. He was effective all season long, so it caught everyone off guard. You can understand the reluctance of Roberts to use him now.

At the same time, he’s rested, and he really was solid in the regular season. He was spotless in three appearances before the World Series, too. He might have to dress up as Brandon Morrow for Halloween, and it’s not like he’s a barrel-scraping option. He was very good before whatever that Game 2 debacle was.

Innings pitched in World Series: 2
Last pitched: Game 5
Effectiveness: He hasn’t allowed a run this postseason, though he’s allowed at least one runner in four of his five outings
Possible availability for Game 6: Available

Notes: Stripling has the high-strikeout rate the Dodgers would want in a reliever, but he allowed 10 homers in 74 regular-season innings. You can understand why Roberts wouldn’t want any part of that.

That written, Stripling is rested and capable of throwing multiple innings. If Roberts doesn’t want to mess around with Fields or his mystery slider, this could be a late-inning option for him.

Those dingers mixed with this World Series, though ... yikes.

Innings pitched in World Series: 1⅔
Last pitched: Game 3
Effectiveness: Not ... not effective
Possible availability for Game 6: Definitely available

Notes: Darvish’s slider stopped working for Game 3, and his increased velocity suggests that overthrowing might have just as culpable as the slick baseballs. His command was abysmal, but the good news is he threw just 49 pitches. The Dodgers might want to save him for a potential Game 7, but they could also bring back Alex Wood on short rest.

What I’m struggling with, though, is figuring out the right scenario to use him in Game 6. With a one-run lead in the late innings? I would just as soon go with Fields, Stripling, Watson, and Cingrani, saving Darvish for Game 7. With a small deficit in the early innings, if needed? That’s probably the one, where there’s no tomorrow, and Roberts will figure out Game 7 when he’s forced to.

It’s a small set of scenarios, though. My guess is they’ll save the funny business for Game 7, when Clayton Kershaw and Alex Wood are both available in relief. If they get there.

The Astros are hoping for Justin Verlander to throw seven or eight innings, and it’s not an unreasonable hope. The Dodgers might want to stop being so cute with Rich Hill, who clearly wants to keep pitching when he’s on a roll, but I don’t know if they’ll let him get into too much trouble.

My guess for the Astros’ optimal plan, assuming that Verlander goes six:

Verlander
Musgrove
Harris
Giles

And the Dodgers, assuming the same for Hill:

Hill
Stripling
Watson
Cingrani
Maeda
Jansen

But there are potentials for creative left turns in there, with Darvish available and Liriano rested. The bullpens are going to decide the 2017 World Series, but we know that. Now it’s time to see exactly how it goes down.