The Diamondbacks have been the significantly stronger wild card team in the National League for some time, but this hasn’t always been reflected in their record or in the standings. The D-Backs have had the run differential for much of the year that makes them look more like a team that should be in the running for the division. But we’re also in a season in which the Dodgers already have 92 wins in spite of their recent slide.
The D-Backs have won 10 in a row, now have huge wild card lead
Monday’s Say Hey, Baseball looks at the D-Backs’ recent surge, the Dodgers’ struggles, and a real weird homer.
Photo by Joe Mahoney/Getty Images
As Arizona is in the midst of a 10-game win streak, however, their place in the standings is a bit closer to reflecting their actual ability. The D-Backs have a 6 1/2 game lead over the Rockies for the first wild card and are seven up on the Brewers for a wild card spot in general. They’re also 9 1/2 games ahead of the Cardinals and 11 1/2 ahead of the Marlins: In addition, those are all the teams closer to the Rockies in the wild card standings than the Rockies are to the Diamondbacks.
Even with 10 wins in a row, however, the D-Backs are underplaying their run differential a little. Their expected record based on that figure — Arizona has scored 124 more runs than they’ve allowed — is 81-56, only 9 1/2 hypothetical games behind the Dodgers. That’s compared to the actual gap of 13 1/2 games behind Los Angeles, but even that number is a lot smaller than it used to be: On Aug. 25, Arizona was 21 games back of the Dodgers. By the way, it’s only Sept. 4.
Now, don’t take that to mean that the Diamondbacks are set up to overtake the Dodgers and reclaim the division lead they lost to them months ago. It’s more just that the D-Backs are a little better than the Dodgers’ success allowed us all to remember, while the Dodgers might be a little weaker than their record page from the summer suggests they were.
It’s a long baseball season, y’all, and the likelihood of the Dodgers picking things back up and crushing the opposition for the next four weeks isn’t that much different than the D-Backs continuing to surge. They could also both play ridiculously well the rest of the way! The important thing to remember is that the D-Backs are and have been good all year, even if they’ve been overshadowed. And if they get through the wild card round, well, the rest of the bracket might be forced to reckon with that fact.
- Jose Ramirez hit two home runs on Sunday, and one of them was strange as heck. The ball bounced off the top of the outfield wall — not once, but twice! — and then was knocked over the wall by Tigers outfielder Mikie Mahtook.
- DRays Bay is wondering about the best September performances in Rays history as the team tries to get itself back into the postseason chase.
- The Dodgers lost the last three games of a four-game series against the lowly Padres and are now on pace for “just” 110 wins. While that’s still plenty, it does make tying or exceeding the 2001 Mariners difficult.
- On the bright side for Los Angeles, Cody Bellinger set the club’s rookie record for homers and is approaching the NL record as well.
- Wilmer Flores fouled a ball off his own face. At this point, the Mets might be better off just forfeiting the rest of their season and resting up for 2018.
- Remember that Yankees fan emotionally destroyed by Rafael Devers’ homer off Aroldis Chapman? He got to meet Devers this weekend.
- Good dog.
- If you feel like reading about baseball physics, Hardball Times has a feature on “late break.” Light holiday reading!
- My Labor Day recommendation for you, as it pertains to baseball, is to order yourself a copy of Lords of the Realm if you haven’t read it. You can get a used copy for a few bucks, but the history lessons within are vital to understanding what it is the MLBPA is and should be fighting against.
- That or spend your day reading about Curt Flood. Both are vital.
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