Red Sox stars aren’t hitting in the World Series, but they’re up 3 games to 1 anyway

The Red Sox came back from being down four runs in the seventh inning of a crucial game in the World Series on Saturday night, a game that started less than 17 hours after the prior night’s crushing loss in 18 innings which let the Dodgers back into the series. Another team might not have been able to come back from that deficit after a Game 3 like that happening the night before, but Boston did. Which is one of the reasons they’re on the verge of a championship at all.

That’s how this team has been all year though, with a narrative attached that is inescapable at this point in the postseason. Because they keep proving it to be true. This Boston team is unkillable. That they can come back from anything. That they are extremely dangerous with two outs, which they added more evidence to multiple times in Game 4. That you can never tell which part of their lineup is the most dangerous in any given series because they all have the ability to be dangerous.

The thing about how the Red Sox got to be one win away from a World Series title is that, usually, their top players are part of the rallies. Crucial contributors to the run scoring efforts and the reason Boston was a historically good team in the regular season. They are a team full of stars after all — multiple AL MVP candidates, a DH who was a top free agent signing, young bats who can always be relied on to produce — and up to this point they have.

Sure, they’ve all had down streaks during the year but no player is immune to streakiness. Here’s how the top four players in Boston’s World Series lineup did at the plate in the regular season.

Here’s how the top four players in Boston’s World Series lineup did in the ALDS and ALCS.

And here’s how the top four players in Boston’s World Series lineup are doing in the actual World Series.

Not great! Let’s also make note of Xander Bogaerts, who slotted into second spot in the lineup in Game 3 and went 0-for-8 with two strikeouts in that marathon game. All in all, a pretty dismal showing by the very people who are meant to be getting on base and starting rallies. Who are usually the reason that the Red Sox are so scary in the first place, a feeling which the supporting cast helps back up in a steady rotation of “oh that guy is bringing runs home?!” moments for each bit player.

It’s not just the pure stats though, and if you’ve been following along with the series you can probably tell that Betts, for one, looks listless at the plate. He’s following in Christian Yelich’s footsteps by being an MVP candidate who appears completely lost in the biggest moment of his career thus far. J.D. Martinez’s has almost completely abandoned him not just at clutch points but at all points. The team as a whole is hitting 34-for-156 with 35 strikeouts.

Yet they’re still one win away from the team’s fourth title in the past 14 seasons and it’s because the usual bit players have become the stars. Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland, Steve Pearce, and Eduardo Nuñez have all hit home runs or brought runs to the plate at pivotal points. Jackie Bradley Jr. Jesus has a home run as well even as he struggles overall. If you take all the supporting cast members and put them together, they make up what the stars are lacking.

It’s not a perfect system, and if you asked Alex Cora he’d probably prefer the top of the lineup to be doing literally anything but what they’re doing, but it almost seems right that a team who could get run production from anywhere all year is now hauling themselves over the finish line with the most random offensive contributors possible in any given inning.

It also helps that the Dodgers are giving them a boost every time Ryan Madson enters the game, which was probably not part of LA’s World Series strategy.

Madson, who had a 5.47 ERA but a 3.98 FIP this season in his time with the Nationals and Dodgers, has been the biggest liability for the Dodgers in just about every game. In the series, he’s allowed every inherited runner to score. At seven runners through four games, he already has the World Series record of most inherited runners allowed to score. In the regular season, he allowed just four inherited runners to score.

So, basically.

Yet with Kenley Jansen also not looking like himself (or, alternatively, looking a bit too much like his 2018 self) and Pedro Baez unavailable at key moments and the rest of the bullpen a tossup if their names aren’t Julio Urias, Madson keeps getting the nod.

In Game 4, a 4-0 game turned into a 4-3 lead for the Dodgers with Madson in. When he took over for Hyun-Jin Ryu in Game 2, a 2-1 LA lead became a 4-2 Boston lead in two batters. And in Game 1, a 3-3 game turned into a 5-3 Boston lead when Madson got the call.

To win a World Series it’s usually helpful to have your top players producing at the plate. It’s also helpful when the other team provides an opening, a weakness, that your players can capitalize on and target. To boost their confidence a bit if they are struggling in other areas. The former isn’t happening for Boston but at the moment Ryan Madson (plus a few other bullpen decisions) is a 6’6”, 225 pound weakness that Boston can capitalize on. Everything else is coming from some of the most unexpected parts of the Red Sox lineup and they haven’t skipped a beat.

We’re possibly a game away from World Series MVP Steve Pearce or World Series MVP Nathan Eovaldi or World Series MVP Mitch Moreland and who could have foreseen that? It’s precisely what makes the postseason the postseason though, so maybe the Game 5 hero will be Sandy Leon or Brock Holt. Or maybe the top of the lineup will finally wake up and live up to their 2018 reputations.