NASCAR at Dover International Speedway 2015 race day weather: Looking a lot drier

Weather forecasts for Dover International Speedway continue to improve. There’s still a chance of showers and drizzle through the day, but most of the time should be dry. While I tend to agree with a drier forecast for Sunday, the stalled front off the coast and the upper level storm system across the Southeastern United States along with Hurricane Joaquin to the east will continue to bring a strong northeast wind off the Atlantic that will carry moisture with it. Along with cloud cover and gusty winds between 25 to 30 miles per hour, there could be showers that cause delays through the day and afternoon. The threat is not very high, but a stray shower or two cannot be ruled out.

ODDS OF RACING SUNDAY?
The weather forecast has come along since earlier in the week. In the last couple of days my odds of us seeing a race, let alone a complete race, have continued to increase. Despite the threat of showers and some drizzle, the odds of an “official race” -- one that gets to halfway completed -- is around 65 to 70 percent. The odds of a complete race are little lower because some delays could occur, so I’d say we have a 60 percent chance at a complete race.

To some those odds sound low, but they really aren’t. The reason for these numbers is, with an onshore flow of wind coming in off the Atlantic, the stalled storm system to the south and a stall front to the east just off the coast, I’ve been burned by bad data saying it wouldn’t rain and it did. I’d rather err on the side of caution.

Sunset at Dover: 6:41 p.m. ET