Budweiser Duels 2015: Stakes are high in Daytona 500 qualifying races

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. -- Earning a starting spot in the Daytona 500 is unique, distinct from any qualifying format NASCAR uses throughout the year. It’s a system that creates great ambiguity and much apprehension thanks to a pair of races that will set the field for Sunday’s main event.

For some drivers the Budweiser Duels are a mere formality, safe in the knowledge they will be in the Daytona 500 no matter what transpires Thursday night at Daytona International Speedway.

Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson are locked into the field, having posted the two fastest laps in qualifying Sunday. Also secured are 11 others, either through a combination of their speed in time trials or ranking in the 2014 standings.

“The qualifiers are going to be insane,” said Carl Edwards, who qualified third to put himself in. “If you’re not locked in, it’s so hard out there. I don’t know how to explain it, it’s so hard sometimes.”

That leaves 36 drivers racing for 30 spots, with a real possibility some marquee names could be headed home early. The list of those who hypothetically could miss the season opener includes Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Kyle Larson, Danica Patrick and Dale Earnhardt Jr.

A perfect storm of dire circumstances, however, would have to converge for either of the Busches, Larson or Earnhardt to not be in the Daytona 500. But the notion of Patrick not making a race she sat on the pole for two years ago is a real possibility.

Patrick struggled in qualifying, recording just the 30th-fastest lap, and her 2014 points position was a mere 28th. That means her most viable -- and perhaps, only -- means of earning getting into the Daytona is by finishing 15th or better Thursday.

Seeing Patrick racing her way to a top-15 result isn’t unrealistic, considering her ability on restrictor-plate tracks. Except that scenario was made more difficult with a switch to a backup car following a practice crash Wednesday, which forces Patrick to start at the rear of her duel.

“We knew we were going to have to race hard through the Duels anyway,” Patrick said. “That’s not going to change. It just makes extra work for everybody having to get everything ready with the other car.”

The favorites

Race 1: Of the two lineups this duel is significantly stronger with Gordon, Sprint Unlimited winner Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart and Earnhardt all potential victors. The deciding factor could be who has a teammate, with all but Kenseth having an in-house drafting partner.

Race 2: No one led more laps in the Unlimited than Truex, while Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin and Michael Waltrip all have won qualifiers previously. But keep an eye on Edwards, who looks determined to start his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing off on a winning note.

Storyline to follow

Race 1: Earnhardt will start last after the No. 88 was found too low in post-qualifying inspection. That shouldn’t be an insurmountable hurdle for the defending Daytona 500 champion to overcome, however. He started at the rear in the Unlimited and made his way to the front within 10 laps, but the stakes and the intensity are raised higher than last weekend’s exhibition.

Race 2: When the green flag drops, all eyes will be on Patrick and her efforts to make Sunday’s race. Working in her advantage is that by being in the second heat will allow her to formulate a game plan. Depending on how events unfold in Race 1, it could force Patrick to be aggressive or lean more conservative.

On the bubble

Race 1: Johnny Sauter, J.J. Yeley, Casey Mears, Michael Annett, Michael McDowell, Justin Marks, Cole Whitt, Landon Cassill and Ron Hornaday Jr.

Race 2: Bobby Labonte, Alex Bowman, Brian Scott, Justin Allgaier, David Gilliland, Jeb Burton, Reed Sorenson, David Ragan, Josh Wise, Mike Wallace and Danica Patrick.