2015 NASCAR at Michigan race day weather update: Second red flag

The weather forecast is coming together as expected. Scattered showers and storms have been the problem all afternoon. Just when you think you can go back racing, one small cell becomes a bigger cell or a line of showers and storms are moving over the track.

It’s not the rain you see on radar you have to worry about but the rain you don’t. In situations like today, radar will look clear one moment and then you look back 5-10 minutes later and you have a storm or shower where one wasn’t just a few minutes ago. Sometimes these cells can form right over a track without any warning. It makes for a challenging forecast and a long day.

CAN NASCAR GO THE DISTANCE? It is possible this afternoon but the challenge will be the unknown of shower and storm development. Sunset at Michigan International Speedway Sunday is 9:14 p.m. ET that means NASCAR has until about 8:45 p.m. ET of good light to race. While the goal is to get a complete 400 miles in on Sunday the aim should be halfway right now and any laps beyond that should be considered bonus. If there are enough windows and pockets of dry, they could get to halfway. I think the odds of this race being postponed to Monday are now around 45 percent.

WHAT DOES MONDAY’S FORECAST LOOK LIKE? The weather forecast for Monday is not much better. Looks like the same weather set up as Sunday, which means possible showers and storms, most of which are widely scattered around southern Michigan. I think NASCAR can race Sunday but the weather isn’t much improved for Monday.