2015 NASCAR at Richmond weather forecast: Repeat of last spring?

It’s starting to look like NASCAR could have a similar experience at Richmond International Raceway as they did back in April. A storm system arriving Saturday could bring rain and thunderstorms to Richmond, and depending on timing and duration, could mean problems for NASCAR.

While Saturday could be wet, the good news is Friday looks like a nice, warm day for Sprint Cup practice and qualifying along with the Xfinity Race.

WILL NASCAR RACE SATURDAY? Forecast data is not consistent on the duration of the rain Saturday afternoon and evening. The data does agree that showers and storms arrive between noon and 2 p.m., with the rain lasting most of the afternoon and early evening with occasional thunderstorms. Some forecasts do have the rain starting to diminish between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m., while others don’t have it ending until after midnight. The end time of the rain is the biggest challenge. If the rain ends in the early to mid-evening, NASCAR has a chance of racing. If it doesn’t break up enough until after midnight, we are looking at a Sunday race.

At this point my odds of racing Saturday night are 40 to 45 percent. I will admit that is better than what I had back in April for the rained out spring race, but I am still concerned that this race could see the same fate.

SHOULD I GO TO THE RACE SATURDAY? I can’t, nor will I ever tell someone whether they should go to a race or not. All I can ever tell someone is what I would do if it were me. If I paid money for an event and there was the smallest chance a race would start or even get to halfway, I’d probably go and have a backup plan in case there is rain. Also, I would suggest before you make a decision that you look at other weather forecasts, not just mine, to make your decision. Each week my weather forecasts are geared for the fan going to the race and those watching it at home, but I am still a meteorologist and I can be wrong. My recommendation is you look at all the weather information you can from other reliable sources like the National Weather Service or the meteorologists from the local television stations and see what they are saying. Then use that along with this forecast to make your decision.

IF WE DON’T RACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHAT DOES SUNDAY LOOK LIKE? There is only a slight chance of lingering showers Sunday morning, but overall the weather for Sunday is drier and cooler than Saturday. If we don’t race Saturday night, we could on Sunday.