NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup Round 2 playoff preview

The first round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup unfolded largely as projected, with championship contenders Martin Truex Jr. (twice) and Kevin Harvick each visiting victory lane in the three-race bracket. As for the four drivers cut from the field, only Kyle Larson’s elimination could be considered a surprise.

But while Round 1 may have lacked drama or unanticipated occurrences, it did offer a glimpse of what’s to come when the quarterfinal round begins Saturday night at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Toyota is every bit as good as thought

Because of the varying agendas amongst teams, the regular season doesn’t always provide an accurate representation of which drivers will be strongest come the playoffs. Often teams that have secured Chase berths early will eschew regular season consistency and results to test and fine-tune experimental parts for when the stakes really matter.

So although Toyota drivers combined to collect 13 of 26 checkered flags during the regular season races and lead 56 percent of all laps, conventional wisdom suggested a team representing a different manufacturer would rise up and challenge Toyota altogether. And yet, despite formidable efforts by the Chevrolets of Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, and rookie Chase Elliott, it was Truex who again dominated.

The Furniture Row Racing driver rallied from a flat tire to take the Chase opener at Chicagoland Speedway, led the most laps and finished seventh the following week at New Hampshire Speedway, and rolled to victory in the Round 1 elimination race at Dover International Speedway.

“It’s a lot of fun to be a part of this right now, but at the same time you have to keep your focus on the next race,” Truex said. “You can’t dwell on the fact that we won two races in the first round because as of today it doesn’t really matter. We have to focus on Charlotte.”

Beyond Truex, quasi-teammates Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin, and Matt Kenseth of Joe Gibbs Racing all advanced with relative ease. Busch’s performance was especially noteworthy, with the defending Sprint Cup champion quietly clicking off subsequent finishes of eighth, third, and second.

With how the second round sets up, the Toyotas should continue to set the pace. The first two events at Charlotte and Kansas Speedway are particular strongholds. In spring races held at those two facilities, Truex and Busch combined to lead 90 percent of the laps at Kansas en route to a Busch victory, while Truex led 392 laps of 400 to triumph at Charlotte.

Although it would require a bit of luck -- especially with Talladega Superspeedway hosting the elimination race -- all five Toyota drivers transferring to Round 3 isn’t farfetched. In fact, it’s almost expected.

“I don’t see any reason why we can’t all five make it to the [semifinals],” Edwards said. “We’ve got great cars, great engines, and really good teamwork.

“We really feel like we can step it up a little bit and run really well, so I don’t think there’s any concerns in our camp.”

Kevin Harvick still a major factor

Harvick demonstrated he’s capable of running with and beating the Toyotas with an impressive win at New Hampshire, where he passed Kenseth with six laps remaining. And were it not for an ill-timed caution, Harvick very well could’ve won at Chicagoland.

If Harvick being positioned as Toyota’s No. 1 adversary carries an air of familiarity, that’s because he played the same role last year while finishing a close second to Busch in the championship finale. Harvick, the 2014 Cup champ, has shown all season he possesses the necessary speed and consistency to outrun the FRR and JGR cars -- he led the series in top-10 finishes, and ranked second in average finish and third in laps led.

The only question about Harvick entering the Chase was a mistake-prone pit crew, but that has become a nonissue thanks to swapping of crew guys. And similar to the Toyotas, he’s a bona fide threat to win every week, regardless of the track.

Hendrick Motorsports rebounds

Amidst a summer stretch during which it endured a team record for futility, Johnson continually stressed Hendrick Motorsports was hard at work trying to solve its shortcomings so it would be playoff-ready.

Those efforts have apparently worked. Both Johnson and teammate Elliott were strong throughout Round 1, with each emerging as potential winners at Chicagoland and scoring solid finishes in the next two races to comfortably advance.

With the speed now present, it’s time for Johnson to focus on execution. The six-time champion continues to accrue pit road penalties at an alarming rate -- nine over the past 10 races, including win-preventing blunders at Chicagoland and Dover. Such mistakes stem from a team still trying to compensate for its slowness on the track, but with that problem addressed the infractions need to cease if Johnson is to avoid an early Chase exit for the third consecutive year.

Talladega ominously looms

No track is more foreboding than Talladega, where horsepower-sapping restrictor plates put the entire field under a virtual blanket and allow drivers little room for escape when the inevitable multi-car accident breaks out. Adding to the fever pitch intensity, the Oct. 23 event is also where the four lowest-ranked Chase drivers will be dropped.

The desire to circumvent having one’s playoff decided in a race viewed by many as a crapshoot will add importance to procuring a win at either Charlotte or Kansas. To do so guarantees a spot in the semifinals, thus rendering Talladega insignificant and alleviating the anxiety of needing a good result at a track where drivers have little control over their fate.

“It would be a lot easier on my blood pressure,” Harvick said of what a Charlotte or Kansas win would mean. “I think everybody has the same goal to try to win one of these two races to eliminate that possibility. ... If you can get to Victory Lane it’s a huge benefit.”