These 4 drivers will advance to the NASCAR championship final

Eight drivers have been eliminated, leaving eight drivers left to vie for the Monster Energy Cup Series championship when the semifinal round of the playoffs begins Sunday at Martinsville Speedway (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN).

And those still in title contention comprise a stacked field featuring a who’s who of NASCAR’s best. The participants are: every series champion since 2012 (Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski); two young talents regarded as future superstars (Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott); the best active driver yet to win a championship (Denny Hamlin); and the 2017 regular-season points champion (Martin Truex Jr.), whose superiority has often been overwhelming.

Truex and Busch have the inside track to be among the four advancing to the best-finish-wins-the-championship finale Nov. 19 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. But as Busch, the third playoff seed and the championship co-favorite, demonstrated in the last round, any preconceived notions about someone being seemingly well positioned to transfer can quickly evaporate with a few poor finishes.

In Busch’s case, he entered the Round 2 elimination race nine points behind the cutline after crashing in consecutive poor finishes at Charlotte Motor Speedway (29th) and Talladega Superspeedway (27th). He needed stage points in abundance and a top-10 finish at Kansas Speedway to avoid an unexpected early playoff knockout.

Kyle Larson, the No. 2 playoff seed, wasn’t so fortunate. Despite going into Kansas with a 29-point cushion, an engine failure regulated him to 39th place. He missed the cut- off by nine points.

The three-race semifinal round doesn’t have a Talladega or Kansas, two notoriously challenging speedways, but Martinsville, Texas Motor Speedway (Nov. 5) and Phoenix Raceway (Nov. 12) present their own idiosyncrasies. Martinsville is a classic short, Texas is a high-speed intermediate oval that’s tough on equipment, while Phoenix can often be a free-for-all due to its spot as the elimination race.

“They all say I’m a lock because I got so many playoff points,” Truex said. “I’m telling you, it’s not that simple. We got to go out and perform, can’t have an engine failure, can’t get in a crash five laps into Martinsville. We got to focus on one race at a time and do the best job we can do, try to keep the momentum going.

“There’s no guarantee we’ll even get to Homestead.”

Here’s a breakdown of the playoff field and a handicap of who has the best chance survive the round and to make it to Homestead with their championship hopes still intact.

Regular season wins: 4

Playoff wins: 3

Points above cutoff: 52

Overview: A hefty points cushion means Truex can likely write off one bad finish, maybe even two, and still advance to the championship bracket. Considering he’s never won at any of the three tracks within the round, that safety net could come in handy should a rash of bad luck strike.

Prediction: Even if he has a stumble along the way, Truex is still a near-lock to grab one of the four available spots in the next round by virtue of his points accumulation. It would be the shock of all shocks if he wasn’t racing for the championship next month in South Florida.

Regular season wins: 2

Playoff wins: 2

Points above cutoff: 25

Overview: As great as Busch looked in the first round, he looked equally feeble in Round 2, barely skirting elimination. But a fresh start awaits in the semifinals, and this bracket sets up well, as he owns victories at all three tracks and nearly won at Martinsville and Phoenix in the spring.

Prediction: Busch should move on. He’s amassed enough points to guard against one bad race, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him solidify his status by scoring a win or two along the way.

Regular season wins: 2

Playoff wins: 1

Points above cutoff: 9

Overview: A Talladega win locked Keselowski into the semifinals, a round he’s been knocked out of twice previously. The biggest hurdle facing him is whether Ford can close the speed gap on Toyota. If not, Keselowski will find it difficult to be in contention for the win at Texas and Phoenix.

Prediction: Keselowski won at Martinsville in the spring and repeating that feat Sunday is certainly on the table. The Virginia half-mile track negates the advantage Toyota holds, presenting the Team Penske driver with an excellent chance to win and not have to concern himself about where he finishes the next two races.

Regular season wins: 1

Playoff wins: 0

Points above cutoff: 0 (Tied with Johnson for the final transfer spot)

Overview: The 2014 champ has been good but not consistently great in the playoffs. That kind of yo-yo performance often comes back to bite a team, and entering the semifinals tied with Jimmie Johnson for the final transfer position doesn’t afford Harvick much room for error.

Prediction: Martinsville looms potentially large for Harvick, who hasn’t finished better than 17th there in his past three starts. If he struggles to run well and leaves in a points hole, then he absolutely must excel in the next races or else. The hunch is he and crew chief Rodney Childers take care of business Sunday then execute the rest of the way to clinch a spot in the title race for the third time in four years.

Regular season wins: 3

Playoff wins: 0

Points above cutoff: 0 (Tied with Harvick for the final transfer spot)

Overview: The playoffs are supposed to be Johnson’s time to shine, but that hasn’t happened yet with the No. 48 Chevrolet still lacking speed, and the team not executing up to its usual standards. It took fortuitous circumstances just for the defending series champion to make this far.

Prediction: You should never count out Johnson. To do so is akin to tugging on Superman’s cape or spitting in the wind. And yet, there is nothing to suggest he is on the cusp of going on one of his patent championship marches. Unless he wins at Martinsville, he won’t defend his title at Homestead.

Regular season wins: 2

Playoff wins: 0

Points below cutoff: 3

Overview: While teammates Busch and Matt Kenseth have garnered most of the attention throughout the playoffs, Hamlin has quietly gone about his business. He’s finished sixth or better in four of six races and nearly won a couple of times.

Prediction: This round sets well for Hamlin with all three tracks among his best. Martinsville is a particular stronghold, as his five wins trail only Johnson’s nine victories among active racers. Even if a win doesn’t materialize on his home state track, the fact he drives a Toyota is a boon that should propel Hamlin into the final four.

Regular season wins: 1

Playoff wins: 0

Points below cutoff: 8

Overview: Few expected Blaney to get this deep in the postseason, yet here he is. That he drives for the legendary Wood Brothers Racing only adds to the sentiment that the 23-year-old is cast in the role of Cinderella -- albeit one wearing a trucker hat and an throwback T-shirt.

Prediction: In the spring, Blaney ran well but didn’t finish well at Martinsville and almost won at Texas before stumbling late, giving credence that he could continue this run if he can put together complete races to give himself a chance of advancing going into Phoenix, where he finished 23rd in March. More than likely, he falls short as sentimentality can carry you only so far.

Regular season wins: 0

Playoff wins: 0

Points below cutoff: 11

Overview: Although he’s the lone winless driver to reach the semifinals, Elliott has come close producing three runner-ups in six playoff races -- and he was leading at Talladega when he crashed himself out with six laps remaining.

Prediction: It is possible to qualify for the championship round without winning a race, and Elliott is more than capable of doing so. Then again, he could also punch his ticket by scoring his first series win at either Texas or Phoenix. In a stacked field of contenders, the latter scenario will likely need to occur for him to advance.