NASCAR at Daytona Preview: Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s playoff hopes hinge on winning Coke Zero 400

Almost anything that could go wrong has gone wrong. Not all of what Dale Earnhardt Jr. envisioned in his first season back after a career-threatening concussion suffered last year, and in what is now his final season before stepping away from full-time competition, a decision NASCAR’s most popular driver announced in April.

Earnhardt’s 2017 season has been full of frustration and disappointment, broken parts and smashed cars. Through 16 races he’s led all of 10 laps, finished in the top 10 only four times with a best result of fifth, and sits 22nd in the points standings -- 134 points behind the provisional cutoff to qualify for the 16-driver playoff field. Ten spots which have already been virtually secured, with a group of more competitive and consistent drivers (Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano and Jamie McMurray) having an easier road to the postseason.

The deficit Earnhardt faces means that to have another shot at a coveted first-ever championship, he’ll need to win one of the 10 remaining regular season races.

“We are running out of time and I’m aware of that,” Earnhardt said.

Opportunity comes for Earnhardt to turn around his subpar season in the form of the Monster Energy Cup Series making its annual July stop at Daytona International Speedway, site of Saturday night’s Coke Zero 400 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC).

The restrictor-plate track, one of two on the schedule, is where he’s been consistently at his best, to the point his ability to manipulate the draft to his advantage has left his rivals often feeling as if they’re in a different race altogether.

Twice Earnhardt has won the Daytona 500. Twice he’s won the Coke Zero 400. And 12 other times he’s been victorious in various races and series at Daytona. Among the most memorable is a win six months after his father, seven-time Cup Series champion Dale Earnhardt Sr., was killed on the final lap of the 2001 Daytona 500.

Now the younger Earnhardt enters the weekend needing to conjure some more Daytona magic.

“It’s a great opportunity,” Earnhardt said. “I know what I need to do on the racetrack, and I will try and go out there and do that and drive the race that I need to drive and hopefully that has me in position at the end of the race.”

But as good as Earnhardt may historically be at Daytona and Talladega Superspeedway, he’s struggled as of late. Instead of dominance that allowed him to overpower rivals almost into submission, he’s looked rather ordinary.

Earnhardt’s superiority vanished not coincidentally when NASCAR changed its aerodynamic rules package prior to the 2016 season, which made passing more difficult unless a driver had significant help to offer a push toward the front. The altered rules -- along with an aging Daytona surface that’s increased the emphasis on handling over horsepower and track position -- caused Hendrick Motorsports’ cars to become unstable in traffic where a common sight has been Earnhardt losing control and spinning out -- an epidemic that’s also hampered teammates Elliott, Alex Bowman and Jimmie Johnson.

But Elliott said he’s noticed a different Earnhardt this weekend. Motivated by his recent follies, Earnhardt has been quite vocal in the caliber of car he expects to have at Daytona -- not an unreasonable request considering his prowess on plate tracks.

“I won’t say he has a chip on his shoulder -- but I do think he has been very, very determined this weekend on making sure his car is driving exactly like he wants it,” Elliott said. “He doesn’t want it good. He doesn’t want it great. He wants it perfect, and I think he has made that very apparent in our post-practice meetings.”

As implored, Earnhardt’s crew chief Greg Ives has seemingly delivered the appropriate adjustments. Since the post-practice debrief on Thursday where he expressed that handling was more important the team otherwise thought, Earnhardt has been happy with how his No. 88 Chevrolet has felt in traffic. He believes the problems that have recently hindered him -- a car that wanted to jump sideways — are resolved.

On Friday, Earnhardt sped to the pole in time trials. Elliott qualified second to give Hendrick a Daytona front row sweep. Although single-lap qualifying runs are vastly different from the conditions drivers will encounter Saturday night, it provided Earnhardt further confidence that he can again be a contender.

“The car needs to be perfect handling-wise to win the race,” Earnhardt said. “If I get a really good handling car that doesn’t give me any issues, then I can just think solely on being on the offense and putting together moves or taking advantage of opportunities I see in front of me.”

“I feel great about the car and we have learned some things.”