The NASCAR offseason isn’t much of an offseason at all, as it is among the shortest in all of sports. But 13 weeks after Martin Truex Jr. hoisted the Cup Series championship trophy in celebration, his title defense is set to begin Sunday with the season-opening Daytona 500. To get you ready, SB Nation breaks down everything you need to know, watch, and follow from now through the season-ending championship final.
NASCAR 2018 season preview: Can anyone catch Martin Truex Jr. and Furniture Row Racing?
The drivers, storylines, and everything else you need to know for the 2018 NASCAR season.
Which four drivers will make the championship final?
Truex and championship runner-up Kyle Busch are good bets to again make it to Homestead-Miami Speedway with their title aspirations still intact. How the playoff schedule sets up favors Truex’s superiority on intermediate speedways, while Busch is arguably the best all-around driver in the series and capable of winning any week on any track.
A case could be made for several drivers to advance to the final, though Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott inspire the most confidence. Chip Ganassi Racing’s Larson is coming off a four-win season, continues to improve and just needs a little luck in the playoffs to race for the championship at Homestead — a track that matches his skillset perfectly.
As for Elliott, despite Hendrick Motorsports experiencing a slump (by its lofty standards) and Chevrolet lacking the same oomph as the Toyotas, he still nearly made the final a year ago. Now that both issues are seemingly resolved, Elliott is well positioned to go on another deep playoff run.
Who wins the Daytona 500?
Even before winning The Clash exhibition opener, Brad Keselowski was on the short list of favorites to win NASCAR’s biggest race, so it’s not as if Sunday’s outcome swayed his status. Although winless in the Daytona 500, his six restrictor-plate wins is tops among all active drivers and few are better at picking their way through traffic to maneuver forward.
Keselowski is overdue to finally breakthrough and get his first Daytona 500 win; he stands an excellent chance of doing just that come this weekend.
The predominant story of the season will be?
Veteran drivers stepping away and young guys asserting themselves at the expense of their more experienced counterparts was one of the central themes of 2017. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth, and Danica Patrick were the latest to announce they were moving in a different direction with their careers, while William Byron and Darrell Wallace Jr. enter and will vie for Rookie of the Year honors.
And with the Xfinity and Camping World Truck Series ranks filled with promising youngsters the youth movement will not slow down any time soon. That generational shift has caused some angst among fans who have seen some their favorites say goodbye, while veteran drivers have voiced their complaints that they are getting overlooked by NASCAR’s promotional arm they believe is solely focused on catering to a younger demographic.
Who wins Rookie of the Year?
Be it in the Xfinity or Truck Series, Byron has proved to be a quick learner and not at all overwhelmed. In his first and only season in trucks, he won nine times and only an engine failure kept him from taking the championship. Last year, in his only season in Xfinity, he won four times and became just the second rookie to win the series title.
Obviously, the Cup learning curve is steeper and the level of competition deeper, so Byron replicating what he’s done the previous two years is highly unlikely. Still, the college sophomore whose poise and patience is that of a veteran, is aligned with one of the better teams (Hendrick) in the garage.
It is not farfetched to think Byron will mirror the rookie season Elliott had in 2016, where he was competitive throughout the year and qualified for the playoffs. And perhaps, if all goes well, don’t be shocked to see Byron celebrating in victory lane at some point.
The driver who will most exceed expectations?
On multiple occasions Erik Jones came close several times to earning his first Cup Series victory during his 2017 freshman season and doing so with a first-year team. That initial win never occurred, though the 21-year-old was named Rookie of the Year and showed the potential that has many touting him as a future star. Now with Joe Gibbs Racing after sliding over from Furniture Row Racing this season, Jones should win multiple times and easily punch his ticket to the playoffs.
The driver who won’t fulfill expectations?
When Stewart-Haas Racing signed Clint Bowyer to replace Tony Stewart he was supposed to be the driver who elevated the No. 14 team where its performance was more in line with teammate and perennial title contender Kevin Harvick and the No. 4 team. But while Bowyer had moments — including three runner-up finishes — he lacked consistency and went through too many stretches where the results simply weren’t there. On the year, he led all of 22 laps and failed to break a winless streak that is now at 185 races and counting.
Bowyer may break through, win, and make the playoffs. It’s also just as likely he fails to win a race for the sixth straight year and has a season like 2017, where he was good but not good enough.
Who will best rebound from a subpar 2017?
The clear-cut No.1 choice is Joey Logano, who suffered through an unexplainable subpar 2017 where rarely did he or the No. 22 Team Penske stable look anything like the group that had won 15 races together since 2013 and twice made the Final Four. From driver to crew chief to the team overall, there is simply too much talent to think that last season was anything but a fluke.
Most notable name who fails to make the playoffs?
Kurt Busch began the 2017 season in grand style by winning the Daytona 500. That turned out to be his only victory of the year and for much of the rest season he was more ordinary than exceptional. The former Cup champion led all of 16 laps, had 10 finishes of 25th or worse — six caused by crashes — and was bounced from the playoffs in the first round.
SHR switching from Chevrolet to Ford absolutely contributed to Busch’s woes. However, there some in the garage who contend that the 39-year-old is no longer the same driver and cannot elevate a team like he once did.
Another issue at play is Busch’s uncertain future, which may prove a distraction as the season moves along. SHR elected not to pick up the option in his contract last summer, a decision prompted by sponsorship uncertainty more than performance, and the two sides were only able to agree to a one-year deal in December. That raised speculation that this may be Busch’s last with the organization and he will either move elsewhere or retire.
Biggest surprise to make the playoffs?
Every season there is at least surprise who qualifies for the postseason by virtue of steady, yet unspectacular results, or an unlikely regular season victory somewhere along the way. Because of his road course prowess, AJ Allmendinger is the best candidate to play this role with a win at either Sonoma Raceway or Watkins Glen International a distinct possibility.
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