The league's two hottest teams are the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Oklahoma City Thunder, which shouldn't surprise anyone who follows the NBA. That the Indiana Pacers are right behind them is a little more eye-opening.
Paul George can lead the Pacers to the playoffs
The Pacers are playing well and their superstar’s return from injury is on the horizon.
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Paul George's return is looming, but the Pacers haven't waited on him to turn things around. On Jan. 24, Indiana had lost seven straight games and were 15 games under .500. They've won eight of their last 12 since. And with George participating in a full-court practice for the first time Thursday, they will only get better.
The biggest factor to the turnaround is George Hill, who made his season debut Jan. 23 after missing half the year with a left knee injury. While Indiana's reputation is their defense, Hill's main impact has been the spark he's brought on offense.
Since his return, the Pacers are scoring 105.2 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com's stats page. That's No. 6 in the NBA during that period. Their defense is only middle of the pack in that same stretch, but they still grab the highest percentage of defensive rebounds, preventing those easy second chance points that still traumatize some of the league's elite. It has all come together for this solid stretch, including wins against the Cavs and the Warriors.
Hill has allowed Indiana to use a true 10-man rotation without a single player averaging more than 30 minutes or 11 shot attempts since he's returned. David West leads the way with just under 30 minutes and exactly 11 field goal attempts per game, but it's a balanced mix. West, Hill, Rodney Stuckey and CJ Miles all fall between 13 and 15 points scored per game.
It’s not the grinding defensive mentality we associate with Indiana of late, but with the eight wins in 12 games, it’s clearly working.
What happens when Paul George comes back?
All signs point to George playing sooner than later; mid-March is currently the target. When he does, the Pacers will likely ease him back into NBA shape. It’s been seven months since his injury and an adjustment period should be expected.
Getting Closer
If Pacers coach Frank Vogel opts to keep the 10-man rotation, he could easily slide Damjan Rudez to the bench. Rudez is averaging 16.4 minutes per game and 18.4 since Hill's return, but someone has to be bumped down a spot and he's the most likely candidate.
George is an elite force on both ends when fully healthy, of course. The offense has been good recently without him, but having a player to guard the elite wings of the East -- LeBron James, Jimmy Butler, DeMar DeRozan -- can help coax the Pacers defense back to league-leading levels.
Can Indiana actually make the playoffs?
Without question. The No. 7 and 8 seeds are both still wide open thanks to the East’s ineptitude and it’s a six-team hunt. Miami and Brooklyn are the current teams holding those respective spots, but Charlotte, Detroit, Boston joins Indiana as teams hoping to leapfrog those two. All six are separated only by two and a half games.
The Pacers are the hottest team in the bunch and none of the others are about to get their best player back from injury, so Indiana has to be favored to move up. Miami is the other wild card: the Heat added Goran Dragic at the trade deadline but lost Chris Bosh for the season, so it's hard to tell which direction they'll be headed.
However, with the way the Eastern Conference is trending, those final two seeds only delay the inevitable. LeBron James has the Cavaliers one game out of taking the No. 2 seed from Toronto, and if they do, none of the six teams will have a realistic chance against them or Atlanta. George returning to lead a playoff push would be a story we all want to see, but if it happens, it will end in the first round.
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