Daniel Jones’ film and stats show how Colts QB figured it out

While Week 2 of the 2025 NFL season is not yet finished -- two games await football fans this Monday night -- one glaring statistic is perhaps the most shocking of the young season to date.

Not only are the Indianapolis Colts 2-0 after Sunday’s dramatic win over the Denver Broncos, but they have yet to punt this season.

After scoring on every possession during Week 1’s 33-8 win over the Miami Dolphins (three touchdowns and four field goals), Daniel Jones and company kept the good times rolling against Denver at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indianapolis had 10 drives against the Broncos on Sunday, scoring on seven of those. Two other possessions ended with the Colts being stopped on fourth down, and the other saw Jones take a knee to close out the first half.

Given their record and this statistic, we have to ask: Are the Colts for real?

One might be excused for hesitating to give Indianapolis credit after Week 1, against a Dolphins defense that certainly had some question marks heading into the season. But Denver provided a much stiffer test for the Colts, given the defense the Broncos run out onto the field and the presence of Patrick Surtain II, last season’s Defensive Player of the Year.

Yet the Colts racked up 473 total yards, with Jones completing 23-of-34 passes for 316 yards and a touchdown. Running back Jonathan Taylor had a massive game for Indianapolis, gaining 165 yards on just 25 carries (for an average of 6.6 yards per attempt) and a touchdown.

The bulk of Taylor’s damage came on this run in the fourth quarter, as he ripped off a 68-yard gain despite the initial contact coming nearly four yards behind the line of scrimmage:

But the headlines, as they often do in the NFL, start with Jones.

Over two games, Jones has produced some of the best numbers in the league. He has completed 71.4% of his passes (ranking him sixth in the league in completion percentage), and his 588 passing yards are second only to Russell Wilson. His Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 9.35 is fourth in the NFL, behind Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, and Lamar Jackson.

Herbert has yet to play in Week 2.

Looking at “Quarterback Efficiency,” a metric that compares QBs in both Expected Points Added per Play and Completion Percentage over Expectation as charted by Ben Baldwin, finds Jones ranked seventh in the league:

Looking at just some of his throws from the win over Denver illustrates why Jones is so high in that category.

Take this first example, as he slides away from pressure off the right edge, hangs in the pocket knowing a bit hit is coming from the left side, but delivers a perfect strike to Josh Downs on a crossing route to move the chains on 2nd-and-6:

Or this example, where Jones rolls to his left on boot-action. Again, he knows a big hit is coming, but he hangs in there to deliver a perfect throw to Michael Pittman Jr.:

Here is another example of Jones navigating pressure. On this play from midway through the first quarter, he carries out a run fake by turning his back to the defense. As he resets his eyes downfield, he sees pressure coming both through the interior and off the right edge.

Jones slides away from that pressure ever so subtly, before lofting in a perfect throw to rookie tight end Tyler Warren on an out-breaking route:

On this completion to Pittman in the third quarter, Surtain is draped all over the receiver.

Jones puts this throw into the only spot where a completion is possible, let alone probable:

This final example might be my favorite play of Jones’ from Sunday. With the Colts facing a 3rd-and-6 right at midfield with under two minutes remaining, they trail by two. This is the proverbial “gotta have it” situation for a quarterback.

The Colts dial up a mesh concept, with Alec Pierce and Downs running the shallow crossers underneath. Denver shows pressure pre-snap, with ten defenders down near the line of scrimmage.

The Broncos send six after Jones, and the QB faces some pressure off the left edge. Again, he uses his feet to slide away from the heat before connecting with Pierce on his crosser to pick up seven yards:

A few plays later -- and yes, after a penalty negated a missed 60-yard field goal try from Spencer Shrader -- Shrader converted from 45 yards out to give Indianapolis a 29-28 win.

So, given all this, are the Colts for real?

Again, one might want to pause on that assessment. After all, we -- including this very writer -- were here exactly a year ago. A team got out to a 2-0 start with a pair of blowout wins (the first coming against a team with questions, the second coming against an expected playoff contender), and that following Monday, I called them the NFL’s “best story so far.”

That team was the New Orleans Saints, who finished the year 5-12.

But before we go throwing cold water on the Colts, consider this.

Looking at both offensive and defensive EPA through two games, Indianapolis is among some of the best teams in the league:

The Saints may have fooled us a season ago, but if you want to hop aboard the Indianapolis bandwagon, now might be the time.