From 2009 to 2010 the Kansas City Chiefs increased their win totals from four to 10 games. That six-game increase was a franchise record for the Chiefs and, as the Chiefs blogger at Arrowhead Pride, it was a lot of fun to watch the team improve week after week, especially after undergoing several horrid seasons.
History Not On Side Of 2010 Surprise NFL Teams
The Chiefs chances of increasing their win total again in 2011? Not very good, at least according to history. Cold Hard Football Facts has dug up some information on the 30 teams between 2002 and 2009 that increased their win total five or more games from one season to the next.
The numbers don’t bode well for 2010 surprise teams like the Chiefs and Bucs.
The 30 teams average three fewer wins the season after the five win improvement. If that doesn't sound like much, consider that three games represent just under 20% of an NFL season. A shocking 24 of the 30 teams (80%) won fewer games the season after the improvement - 13 of them experienced drop-offs of at least four wins.
History strongly suggests each of those teams will move backwards in 2011. That’s because of a tough schedule but also a regression to the mean, as CHFF notes.
The good news is that if one of those teams like the Chiefs or Bucs can improve their win total once again in 2011, then history says they'll do very well. Two teams who improved their win total the year after a five or game increase were the 2003 Panthers and 2006 Bears -- both of whom appeared in the Super Bowl that year.
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