NFL Week 4 Odds And Trends: Cowboys And Lions Highlight The Week

With half of Week 4’s game seeing very tight spreads and even tighter betting action, handicapping this week’s matches requires more diligence and more debunking of myths and strange trends. Eight games have spreads of three points or less and none has any huge trend action like last week when the Patriots rode a 15-0 streak into Buffalo and lost and Minnesota rode a 16-1 streak at home to Detroit and still lost.

This week, those winless Vikings have a 2-11 SU run on the road. They face the similarly winless Chiefs in a game that saw KC open as a small favorite only to bettors push the line all the way to -3 for Minnesota. But take out last year’s breakout season for the Chiefs and they are 1-11 SU in home games. [ Current Vikings vs Chiefs point spread ]

The surprising Lions look to go 4-0 for the first time since the Clinton administration and they are small underdogs at Dallas. The trends for the Cowboys at home point to the total, as they are 14-2 favoring the OVER in their past 16 games. [ Dallas vs Detroit NFL Matchup Report ]

Your money is suddenly safe with those 3-0 Lions meanwhile as they are 7-0-1 ATS their past 8 games overall. In Chicago, you should know that the Bears almost always win SU as a favorite and the Panthers almost always lose as an underdog of 7 points or less. That is the situation for Carolina Sunday.

A similar story where one team’s weak trend feeds another team’s strong trend is in Green Bay. See the trends below for the latest and check out Odds Shark’s NFL Week 4 trend article with even more juicy, trendy analysis.

Washington -1 at St Louis +1

Rams 4-0 ATS past four meetings with Redskins

49ers +10 at Eagles -10

Eagles lost 4 straight at home
49ers are 1-13 SU vs NFC East teams since 2004
49ERS 1-11-2 ATS past 14 vs NFC East teams

Vikings -2 at Chiefs +2

Vikings 2-11 SU past 13 road games
Other than 2010 season, KC 1-11 SU past 12 home games (best dog line)

Saints -7.5 at Jacksonville +7.5

Home team won all four meetings since 1996
Saints just 2-5 ATS past 7 as road favorite

Steelers +4 at Houston -4 – best OVER line

Texans 10-3 SU past 13 as chalk, after struggling in that role for years
Texans 10-3 ATS past 13 vs AFC North teams

Lions +1 at Dallas -1

Lions 7-0-1 ATS past 8 games
6 of past 7 meetings have gone UNDER total
OVER is 14-2 past 16 Dallas games overall

Titans +1 at Browns -1

Cleveland 3-1 ATS past 4 vs Titans
Cleveland is 6-1 ATS past 7 as small fave or 2 or less points
Titans 1-7 ATS past 8 as small underdog of 2 or less

Bills -3 at Bengals +3

Bills 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS against the Bengals
Bengals 6-2 ATS past 8 games as underdog
Bills 14-6 ATS as small favorite since 2003

Panthers +7 at Bears -7

Bears 16-4 SU past 20 games as favorite
Panthers 3-16 SU, 4-15 ATS past 19 games as dog of 8 or less

Falcons -4.5 at Seahawks +4.5

Seahawks 3-8 ATS past 11 as underdog
Falcons 6-1 ATS past 7 games as road favorite
Seahawks 14-6 ATS at home since 2008

Giants -1 at Arizona +1

Giants 11-2 ATS in the past 13 games vs NFC West teams
Total has gone UNDER in 7 of the New York Giants last 9 games against Arizona
Total has gone UNDER in 5 of past 6 meetings at Arizona

Dolphins +7 at San Diego -7

All 8 recent meetings have gone UNDER the total
Dolphins 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS past 8 vs Chargers

Patriots -4 at Raiders +4

Pats are 6-1 ATS in their past 7 road games
Raiders have played OVER in 5 straight at home
Both 3-0 favoring the OVER so far in 2011-09-29

Broncos +14 at Green Bay -14

Broncos are 1-10 SU in their past 11 road games
Packers 13-1 SU, 10-3-1 ATS in their past 14 games at home

Jets +3 at Baltimore -3

Ravens 6-1 SU in seven meetings against the Jets since 1997
Ravens are 13-1 SU in their past 14 home games
Jets are 12-1 favoring OVER in their past 13 road games

Colts +10 at Tampa Bay -10 Monday Night Odds