Since starting the season off 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, the New England Patriots are 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS over their last 14 games. The Patriots will be making their sixth trip to the Super Bowl in the last 14 seasons and looking for their first win since 2005 Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks.
Super Bowl 49 betting: Why Patriots will win and cover the spread
We look at how the New England Patriots will win and cover the spread in Super Bowl 49.
New England is a one-point favorite in the big game at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. With a balanced attack on offense and a strong defense, the New England Patriots have the goods to win Super Bowl XLIX.
And while many of the betting trends do not favor the Patriots (NFC is 6-1 ATS past seven Super Bowls, underdogs are 10-3 ATS past 13 and Seattle is vicious as an underdog at 19-4-1 ATS), one intriguing pattern certainly favors them.
This is the 19th time a team has made a repeat trip to the Super Bowl and only five times has that team been an underdog. However, in all five games, that returning underdog lost the game SU and ATS (0-5 ATS).
The Patriots finished the season ranking fourth in scoring offense with 29.3 points per game, and have taken their game to another level in the postseason averaging 40 points per game through their first two playoff games.
Tom Brady is still one of the best quarterbacks in the game, and he has plenty of weapons to spread the ball around to, including Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell. LeGarrette Blount's breakout game against Indianapolis proved the Patriots can run the ball effectively, control the clock and wear down a defense.
While the Patriots are known for their offense, the defense really came into its own this year. New England finished the season ranked eighth in scoring defense, allowing only 19.6 points per game, but has been particularly good recently, allowing only 13.7 points per game over the team’s last six games.
With Seattle's offense coming off one of its sloppiest games of the season last week, the defense should have plenty of tape to watch and have a gameplan for Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch for Super Bowl XLIX.
The Seahawks may have the edge on defense with the best defense in the league, but will that be enough to overcome New England’s clear advantage on offense? Tom Brady is a more explosive quarterback than Russell Wilson, and his offensive weapons at tight end and wideout are much stronger.
The Patriots aren’t likely to match their playoff average of 40 points in this one, even though the Odds Shark computer says they will get 35, but this year’s team is good enough to earn the win and dethrone the defending champions.
It will be good enough to blunt their current 1-5-1 ATS run in the franchise’s seven Super Bowl appearances.
