The Denver Broncos dropped out of the ranks of the unbeaten on Sunday, but it isn't likely to hurt their chances at the postseason.
NFL standings 2015: Broncos still in good shape despite 1st loss
The Panthers, Patriots and Bengals stay undefeated while Falcons take brutal loss.
While Denver was being upset by the Indianapolis Colts, the second-place Oakland Raiders failed to take advantage, losing 38-35 to the Pittsburgh Steelers. That leaves the Broncos with a three-game lead in the AFC West and a 95 percent chance of winning the division, according to Five Thirty Eight.
Where the loss does hurt the Broncos is in the race for a first-round bye. With the New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals staying undefeated, Denver's chance of a week off in January dropped from 64 percent to 48 percent. At the same time, the Patriots are up to an 84 percent chance of a bye, while the Bengals are at 67 percent.
In the NFC, the big winner of the day was obviously the Carolina Panthers, who took control of the conference with their 37-29 win over the Green Bay Packers, combined with the Atlanta Falcons' inexplicable loss to Blaine Gabbert and the San Francisco 49ers. The Panthers now have a 93 percent chance of winning the NFC South and a league-high 90 percent chance of getting a first-round bye.
Green Bay has now dropped into a first-place tie with the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North, something that would have been hard to imagine when the Vikings were blown out by the 49ers in Week 1. The Vikings and Packers still have to play twice, but the Packers have the advantage of two games with the Detroit Lions, while Minnesota has already swept Detroit. Because of that, the Packers are still given a 74 percent chance of winning the division, but the Vikings are up to a 66 percent chance of making the postseason.
NFC East gets closer
When the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Dallas Cowboys 33-27 in overtime Sunday night, it moved them back within a half-game of the first-place New York Giants. Because Philadelphia finishes the season with five home games and a road game in Detroit, they are now a 50-40 favorite to win the division, with Washington and Dallas splitting the other 10 percent.
Colts’ upset keeps them ahead in the AFC South
With Indianapolis stunning Peyton Manning and the Broncos, they are now 4-5 and a half-game ahead of the Houston Texans. They've now got a 69 percent chance of winning the division, with Houston at 21 percent. The 2-6 Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans are ranked as the league's worst teams by Five Thirty-Eight's ELO system, but they still combine for a 10 percent shot at the division.
Browns join Lions in the race for 2016
Last week, the Lions became the first team to drop under a one-percent chance of making the postseason with their 45-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in London. This week, the Cleveland Browns joined them in the dubious club with their 31-10 defeat Thursday night to the Bengals.
San Diego is done for
With their season on the brink at 2-6, the San Diego Chargers badly needed a win over the rebuilding Chicago Bears on Monday to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Instead, San Diego let a late lead slip away and dropped its fifth game in a row. The Chargers now have to win out to have any hope of stealing a wild card berth, and with a myriad of injuries on both sides of the ball, that doesn’t look likely. This just isn’t their year.
| AFC East | W | L | AFC West | PA | Point diff. | Div |
| New England Patriots | 8 | 0 | 276 | 143 | 133 | 3-0 |
| New York Jets | 5 | 3 | 200 | 162 | 38 | 1-1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 4 | 4 | 209 | 190 | 19 | 2-1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 3 | 5 | 171 | 206 | -35 | 0-4 |
| AFC North | W | L | PF | PA | Point diff. | Div |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8 | 0 | 229 | 142 | 87 | 3-0 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 4 | 206 | 182 | 24 | 0-2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 6 | 190 | 214 | -24 | 1-2 |
| Cleveland Browns | 2 | 7 | 177 | 247 | -70 | 1-1 |
| AFC South | W | L | PF | PA | Point diff. | Div |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4 | 5 | 200 | 227 | -27 | 3-0 |
| Houston Texans | 3 | 5 | 174 | 205 | -31 | 2-1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2 | 6 | 170 | 235 | -65 | 0-2 |
| Tennessee Titans | 2 | 6 | 159 | 187 | -28 | 0-2 |
| AFC West | W | L | PF | PA | Point diff. | Div |
| Denver Broncos | 7 | 1 | 192 | 139 | 53 | 2-0 |
| Oakland Raiders | 4 | 4 | 213 | 211 | 2 | 1-1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | 5 | 195 | 182 | 13 | 0-1 |
| San Diego Chargers | 2 | 7 | 210 | 249 | -39 | 0-1 |
| NFC East | W | L | PF | PA | Point diff. | Div |
| New York Giants | 5 | 4 | 247 | 226 | 21 | 2-2 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | 4 | 193 | 164 | 29 | 2-2 |
| Washington | 3 | 5 | 158 | 195 | -37 | 1-1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 2 | 6 | 160 | 204 | -44 | 2-2 |
| NFC North | W | L | PF | PA | Point diff. | Div |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6 | 2 | 168 | 140 | 28 | 3-0 |
| Green Bay Packers | 6 | 2 | 203 | 167 | 36 | 1-0 |
| Chicago Bears | 3 | 5 | 162 | 221 | -59 | 0-3 |
| Detroit Lions | 1 | 7 | 149 | 245 | -96 | 1-2 |
| NFC South | W | L | PF | PA | Point diff. | Div |
| Carolina Panthers | 8 | 0 | 228 | 165 | 63 | 2-0 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 3 | 229 | 190 | 39 | 0-2 |
| New Orleans Saints | 4 | 5 | 241 | 268 | -27 | 1-2 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 5 | 181 | 231 | -50 | 2-1 |
| NFC West | W | L | PF | PA | Point diff. | Div |
| Arizona Cardinals | 6 | 2 | 263 | 153 | 110 | 1-1 |
| St. Louis Rams | 4 | 4 | 153 | 146 | 7 | 3-0 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 4 | 4 | 167 | 140 | 27 | 1-1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 6 | 126 | 223 | -97 | 0-3 |
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