NFL Week 1 gambling picks from a moron

The good people over at Oddshark were kind enough to invite me in to the Westgate Super Contest this year. They were likely blown away by the 54 percent winning percentage I put up in my 2014 gambling column, and really what’s not to like? My strategy, at the beginning at least, was to imagine what the world’s dumbest football fan would do, and then do the opposite. About halfway through the season (as I was trying to climb my way out of a pretty big hole) I came to the realization that I was the dumb one. I switched up my entire philosophy to bet against my actual picks every week and sure enough, I bounced back into the black.

As Confucius was probably misquoted, “The wisest man is the man who knows that he knows nothing.” So now, I’m the wise one because I realize how dumb I am, which makes me smart. You savvy?

Thus, my strategy is to pick all my games according to my gut, and then at the very last moment go back and reverse my picks. Some call it “The Costanza Method,” some call it “fading yourself.” I’m just hoping that I’m as dumb as I think I am.

The rules of the super contest are simple. I pick five games per week, and if I win, I get a million dollars. Last year’s winner hit on 76 percent of their picks. Candy from a baby. So without further ado, here are this week’s picks from me -- team “Big Moron.”

(Home team is in CAPS)

Me and every sucker in America (or at least 68 percent) are taking the Pack this week. The Bears are a steep seven-point home underdog, and their defense should be less atrocious than it was last year. Has to be. The Packers offense is going to have to figure out a new identity without Jordy Nelson to stretch the field. But they still have loads of offensive weapons, and now that Mike McCarthy is no longer calling the plays they might be more likely to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the “bee’s wanger” yard line.

The fact that the Bears were such big home dogs in Week 1 made this game the easiest for me to pick -- in favor of Chicago. But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed it at the last second to the Packers -7.

I’ve been doing a lot of reading about the dire state of affairs when it comes to rookie QBs who come from a spread offense, and it caused me to second guess myself on Marcus Mariota. He’s been operating under center a bit more during the preseason, but I feel like Jameis Winston is going to be way more effective this year. Plus, the game is played by 21 other people besides the QB at any given time, and the Bucs in my opinion have a much stronger supporting cast. Easy call, Bucs by a million.

I felt really confident in this pick, but I’m a Big Moron, so I changed it at the last second to the Titans +3.

Whenever I see “Cardinals” I still think “Jake Plummer.” And whenever I see “Saints,” I think Super Bowl. I suspect this is a pretty similar mindset to many casual sports fans. The Cardinals have historically been so bad, and the Saints have been recently so good that when people look at these teams, we think more about their brands than their current teams -- especially in Week 1 when they don’t have an identity yet. I keep waiting for the Cardinals to regress, and I keep waiting for the Saints to make another deep playoff run.

I look at Carson Palmer coming off of a serious knee injury and that just confirms to me that I should take the Saints. But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed it at the last second to the Cardinals -2.5.

The Browns are bad offensively, but they aren’t offensively bad. Their defense actually figures to be pretty good between their line and their DBs. Meanwhile, the Jets are a big question mark. A team so weird that the fact that their starting QB is out with a broken jaw might actually translate into a one- or two-point line swing IN THEIR FAVOR.

I just don’t see a situation where the Jets should be favored by more than a field goal to anyone. But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed it at the last second to the Jets -3.5.

The Vikings are a trendy pick to snag a wild card spot, and with good reason. They’re getting one of the best players in football back in Adrian Peterson. Teddy Bridgewater has another year under Norv Turner to learn how to lose in the playoffs, and he’s got some pretty good weapons at WR. Add in a stout Mike Zimmer defense and I can totally understand all the hype. The 49ers on the other hand are incredibly, tragically depleted on both sides of the ball. It’s like they leveled up in a video game and have to learn how to win all over again. Jim Tomsula is a hell of a guy by all accounts, and I want to see him win. But this doesn’t feel like a good situation for him.

Feels like an easy call. Vikings win big. But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed it at the last second to the 49ers +2.5.