Chiefs vs. Texans preview, NFL playoffs 2016: Houston looks to slow down streaking Kansas City
Defense wins championships, right? The Texans and Chiefs ranked 1-2 in points allowed from Week 8 until the end of the regular season.
It’s finally here. The 2015 postseason kicks off with a Saturday afternoon battle between two of the league’s hottest teams in a game that no one could have possibly imagined in late October.
At that point, the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans were buried in the standings and had a better chance of a top-five draft pick than playing for the Lombardi Trophy. The Chiefs started 1-5 and the Texans opened with five losses in their first seven games. Since then, both squads are a combined 17-2.
The Chiefs, who suffered through a five-game losing streak after winning their season opener, are riding an unprecedented 10-game win streak into this matchup. They are the only team in NFL history to lose five games in a row and win 10 games in a row in the same season. Kansas City finished with an 11-5 record, the best ever by a club that had five consecutive defeats during the season.
They also became just the 10th team since the 1970 merger to end the season with 10 or more straight wins. Yet, that extended momentum has little predictive power for playoff success. While three of the previous nine clubs went on to win the Super Bowl (2003 New England Patriots, 1976 Oakland Raiders, 1972 Miami Dolphins), the last two teams to achieve this feat (2012 Denver Broncos, 2009 San Diego Chargers) both lost their first playoff game.
If K.C. is going to reverse that trend, it will also have to snap an eight-game postseason losing streak dating back nearly two decades (tied for the longest in NFL history), and overcome its miserable 8-15 postseason mark (the second-worst among all franchises).
With a 7-2 record over the final two months, the Texans’ late surge has been slightly less impressive than the Chiefs, but nonetheless still historic due to their unthinkable quarterback shuffle this season. They are the first team in the Super Bowl era to make the playoffs despite having four different quarterbacks who started and won a game for them during the regular season.
It hasn’t mattered too much who has been under center for Houston this season because its defense has emerged as one of the NFL’s elite units in the second half of the season. They allowed the fewest points and yards per game from Weeks 8-17, and held their opponent to one or zero touchdowns in six of those nine contests.
This is the Texans’ third playoff appearance and first since they made back-to-back trips in 2011 and 2012. They are 2-0 in their opening games -- winning both of their previous Wild Card games -- but have never advanced past the Divisional round.
Digits
Kansas City’s formula for success during its 10-0 run has been pretty simple: get an early lead, win the turnover battle, repeat. Since Week 7, the Chiefs have the second-most takeaways, the second-fewest giveaways and the best turnover margin of any team. They didn’t commit a single turnover in the first five games of the win streak, and forced one or more turnovers in every contest.
Building early momentum in games allowed the Chiefs to control the tempo and paved the way for their stout defense to take over down the stretch. They outscored their opponents by 41 points in the first quarter from Weeks 7-17, tied for the highest mark in the league. And no team allowed fewer points in the final three quarters than the Chiefs did during their 10-game win streak.
One of the key matchups in the game is how the Chiefs handle the most disruptive defensive player in the universe, J.J. Watt, and the rest of the Texans dominant front seven. Kansas City's offensive line has really struggled to protect Alex Smith this season, ranking 29th in sack rate allowed. He's been taken down at least once in every contest and multiple times in 13 of 16 games.
The Texans counter with the league's third-best sack rate on defense, and are coming off an eight-sack performance in their final regular season game against Jacksonville. Watt and Whitney Mercilus form the league's most productive pass-rushing duo with a combined 29.5 sacks, and both have been nearly unstoppable in recent weeks. If Kansas City can't keep those two defensive monsters out of the backfield, it could be a long afternoon for Smith.
Who to Watch
While the battle in the trenches will certainly be a critical factor in determining the outcome of the game, don't underestimate the fantastic matchup on the outside between Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and the Chiefs defensive back duo of Marcus Peters and Sean Smith. (Kansas City's defense has its cornerbacks predominantly stick to one side, so both guys will see time covering Hopkins.)
Hopkins is the Texans’ best playmaker and a huge reason why they were able to weather their quarterback storm this season. He ranked third in the NFL in both receiving yards and receptions, and set a franchise record with 11 touchdown receptions. When Houston fed him the ball, good things happened. The Texans were 6-3 when he had at least seven catches and 3-4 when he didn’t reach that mark.
Peters just completed one of the best rookie campaigns by any cornerback in recent years. He tied for the league lead with eight interceptions, including two he returned for scores. His eight picks are the most by a first-year player since Jarius Byrd in 2009. Peters also was credited with 26 passes defended, tied for the highest mark in the NFL this season. Smith graded as the 13th-best corner in the league, per Pro Football Focus, and chipped in with two interceptions.
How to Watch
When: 4:35 p.m. ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
TV: ABC/ESPN
Announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Lisa Salters
Online: WatchESPN
Odds
The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites and the over/under is 40, according to OddsShark.com.
Preliminary Judgement
Kansas City looks to be the favorite among the experts. Mike Ditka is the only member of ESPN’s 13-man panel taking the Texans, while five of the eight guys at CBS Sports are going with the Chiefs. Here at SB Nation, the only one picking Houston is the OddsShark computer, but all of the humans are taking the Chiefs to win on the road.
Further Reading
For more on the Chiefs, head over to Arrowhead Pride. To read about the Texans, check out Battle Red Blog.
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