The top two picks of the 2016 NFL Draft were traded away in the weeks before, but teams have waited until the night of the 2017 NFL Draft to make deals. That means we could be in for a wild night of trades Thursday.
NFL Draft trade value chart explained
Jimmy Johnson created a trade value chart early in his tenure with the Cowboys and it’s still reflected in trades in 2016.
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When teams negotiate those swap of selections on draft day, they will likely use the trade value chart to decide fair compensation.
Former Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins head coach Jimmy Johnson is credited with creating the chart early in his time with the Cowboys, taking older versions of trade value charts and modifying them to build one that has stood the test of time for more than two decades as the most accurate reflection of draft values.
Essentially, the chart attempts to quantify the value of each pick, with the No. 1 pick valued at 3,000 points, the No. 10 pick at 1,300 points and just 100 points for the No. 100 pick.
Want to trade from No. 10 to No. 8? Well, the No. 8 pick is worth 1,400 points and No. 10 is worth 1,300 points so an early fourth-round pick worth about 100 points should do the trick.
The first trade of the 2015 NFL Draft was a move for the San Diego Chargers up just two spots from No. 17 to grab running back Melvin Gordon at No. 15. The trade closely followed Johnson's chart to make for a fair swap:
| Chargers send: | 49ers send: | ||
| 2015 1st (17th overall) | 950 points | 2015 1st (15th overall) | 1,050 points |
| 2015 4th (117th overall) | 60 points | ||
| 2016 5th | 43-27 points |
Should teams value picks differently? Maybe, but long after Johnson’s retirement, his chart still seems to be the guideline of choice in the NFL.
Others, like Chase Stuart of Football Perspective and even students at Harvard, have adjusted the values of the chart to try to more accurately reflect the value presented with each pick, but the king's ransom recently received by the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns shows that Johnson's inflation of the first few picks of the draft still holds true.
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