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NFL Draft picks 2016: Christian Hackenberg drafted by Jets in 2nd round

Is Hackenberg the budding freshman who thrived under Bill O’Brien or the inconsistent passer who floundered with James Franklin at the helm?

The New York Jets drafted Christian Hackenberg, whose story would probably be very different if the NFL had a one-and-done rule on its books like the NBA. Coming out of his freshman year at Penn State, he was compared to a young Tom Brady or Andrew Luck. But after two lackluster campaigns, he saw his draft stock slide. Hackenberg went from a likely first-rounder to the second-round, where the Jets took him with the No. 51 pick.

Few quarterback prospects were as heralded as Hackenberg out of high school. He attended Fork Union Military Academy in Virginia and was ranked as the best pro-style recruit by ESPN. At 6’4, 212 pounds, Hackenberg projected to be the prototypical pro-style pocket passer. Despite receiving offers from Alabama and a host of other SEC schools, he wound up choosing to play for Bill O’Brien at Penn State. Even though the program’s reputation was deeply damaged after the Jerry Sandusky case, it seemed to be the perfect place for Hackenberg to hone his quarterbacking skills. O’Brien did once serve as Brady’s offensive coordinator, after all.

Everybody knew the NCAA was going to levy severe sanctions on Penn State prior to the 2013 season, but that didn’t make the actual penalties any less shocking. The NCAA banned the Nittany Lions from the postseason for four years and stripped the university of 20 scholarships over that time span. A host of players jumped ship, but Hackenberg stayed. His faith was rewarded when the NCAA lifted Penn State’s postseason ban in 2014 and returned all of its scholarships one year later, though ironically that was when Hackenberg’s tenure was already starting to go downhill.

Hackenberg's college career couldn't have gotten off to a better start, especially given the circumstances he was playing under. In 2013, he completed 58.9 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while throwing for 2,955 yards in 12 starts. To see an 18-year-old freshman operate with ease in O'Brien's system, which was analogous to the scheme the Patriots ran in 2011, was nothing short of impressive (GIFs via Murf Baldwin):

Hackenberg displayed an excellent tendency to decipher coverage and pick through his options before settling on a receiver. His pocket presence was also advanced well beyond his years.

Those skills haven't eroded, but they have been more difficult to spot in recent years. When O'Brien was named head couch of the Houston Texans in 2014, James Franklin took over coaching duties at Penn State and installed a more traditional spread offense. Hackenberg had thrived in O'Brien's pro-style scheme, but he floundered under Franklin.

As a sophomore, Hackenberg threw more interceptions than touchdowns -- 12 TDs, 15 INTs -- and only completed 55.8 percent of his throws. His numbers improved slightly as a junior, with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions, but it wasn’t enough to return Hackenberg to the top of the draft board.

There are other factors besides Franklin that may have held Hackenberg back in 2014 and 2015. Penn State’s offensive line was brutal during those two years, for example, allowing a whopping 83 sacks over that time span. But it’s apparent Hackenberg believes Franklin’s system harmed his development. When Hackenberg declared for the draft in January, he curiously omitted Franklin from his statement -- and mentioned O’Brien in the first paragraph.

The rumors of Hackenberg’s antipathy towards Franklin were further elevated March 26, when the MMQB’s Robert Klemko reported the quarterbacked told NFL teams during his Combine interviews that Franklin was the reason for his recent struggles. Apparently, Hackenberg’s admission rubbed some clubs the wrong way:

Per two personnel sources on two separate teams who have shown interest in drafting Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg, the quarterback has said all the wrong things in interviews when asked to explain his declining sophomore and junior numbers (a combined 28 touchdowns and 21 interceptions). Hackenberg has shifted blame to coach James Franklin, who took over in 2014 when coach Bill O’Brien departed for the Texans. Said one evaluator: “Despite the fact that it’s probably true, you don’t want to hear a kid say that.”

But given the way his performance tumbled as a sophomore and junior, he was unlikely to save himself during the interview process anyway.

Hackenberg still has an NFL build and skill set, but now more questions exist about him than ever before. The path to NFL superstardom isn’t always linear, but it’s also difficult to peg somebody for greatness who hasn’t played well since he was 18.

The Jets have made a few investments at quarterback in recent years, drafting Geno Smith in the second round in 2013 and Bryce Petty in the fourth round last year. Ryan Fitzpatrick was the team’s starter last year, but is currently a free agent and “would rather not play football” than take the offer the Jets have placed on the table, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

With a third young quarterback added to the fold, it could be the end of the road for Fitzpatrick with the Jets as the team now has a stable of passers who can compete for the role. Bringing back Fitzpatrick for the short term could make sense, but a long-term deal doesn’t and that could be the only kind of contract the veteran passer is interested in.

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