The Browns seemingly did everything right this offseason. After bottoming out with a 1-15 record in 2016, Cleveland’s de facto general manager Sashi Brown engineered a turnaround plan that jettisoned the veterans who had no place on a rebuilding team, and he invested fully in a youth movement. With a wellspring of emerging talent and an uneven AFC North, 2017 looked like a season where the Browns had nowhere to go but up.
Are the Browns getting worse?
Cleveland’s rebuild has shown few signs for optimism this fall.
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Instead, Cleveland may have found a way to drill into the bedrock and make a home in the abyss. A revamped offensive line has struggled, and even when everything clicks up front the Browns have no playmakers for whom to block. The franchise’s legendary quarterback struggles have continued behind the league’s least efficient offense. The efforts of an upward-trending defense are being wasted.
So how did the Browns fall back into a world where 0-16 remains a possibility?
Cleveland’s quarterback situation makes no sense, which makes perfect sense in Cleveland
DeShone Kizer looked electric in spurts this preseason, but the rookie’s stunning ability to lead his team backward — in five games, he was sacked 12 times, fumbled three times, and threw nine interceptions. His poor performance gave way to 2016 practice squad staple Kevin Hogan, who has thrown interceptions on nearly 7 percent of his passes. Cody Kessler, the 2016 third-round pick who stood out as the team’s best passer as a rookie, has been inactive for all six of the team’s games this fall.
Kizer was always going to be a project, but the start to his NFL career has painted him as a fundamentally broken passer who will need copious time to figure out league defenses. Any optimism Hogan raised in a 16-of-19 performance against the Jets last week was quickly wiped out by a three-interception performance in his first career start:
Cleveland’s aerial performance has somehow gotten worse from 2016, when Kessler, Hogan, Josh McCown, Robert Griffin III, Charlie Whitehurst, and Terrelle Pryor all threw passes for the club. The Browns’ combined passer rating for 2017 is a gruesome 56.7; the terrible passer they’re paying $16 million to play backup for the Broncos this season, Brock Osweiler, had a 72.2 rating in his much-maligned ‘16 campaign.
This is all extremely familiar for a franchise that’s started 28 quarterbacks since being revived in 1999. Cleveland’s passing game high point lies somewhere in the realm of Derek Anderson. That’s because ...
The Browns have had premier draft picks but haven’t turned those players into stars
Since 2010, the Browns have had 13 first-round draft picks. Only one of those players has ever seen a Pro Bowl: current Steeler Joe Haden. Aside from him, only one of those players has spent more than two seasons as a primary starter in Cleveland — Danny Shelton.
After that, the names on the list of draftees gets grim. Brandon Weeden. Trent Richardson. Justin Gilbert. Barkevious Mingo. Johnny Manziel. 2012, 2013, and 2014 draftees are the backbones of franchises like the Raiders, Titans, and Steelers. For Cleveland, those drafts are just a toilet filled with wasted picks.
More recent years hold some potential — though Corey Coleman’s inability to stay healthy threatens to derail his career. Shelton is a solid space-clogger up front. Myles Garrett has three sacks in two professional games. Jabrill Peppers is flawed, but athletic enough to develop into a plus starter in the Cleveland secondary.
The biggest concern in 2017 is the team’s willingness to pass on Deshaun Watson. Cleveland held the 12th pick and had the opportunity to snatch up the College Football Playoff champion and crown him their cornerstone quarterback. Instead, they traded the selection to Houston for a pair of first-round picks and a third-rounder. That gives the team some valuable draft capital for 2018, but the Browns’ inability to convert potential into production means the move may never pay off.
Meanwhile, Watson has been one of the league’s most exciting rookies since earning the Texans’ starting role. He leads the league with 15 touchdown passes. In his last three games alone, he’s accounted for 13 touchdowns. In their last three games, the Browns have scored four offensive touchdowns.
What’s even tougher for the Browns is head coach Hue Jackson’s insistence he knew Watson was special all along.
Watson isn’t the only stalwart young passer the franchise has passed on. The reason Brown had the 12th pick of the 2017 NFL Draft was thanks to a 2016 trade that gave up the No. 2 overall pick. Philadelphia used that selection to draft Carson Wentz. He currently leads a 5-1 Eagles team. His 99.5 passer rating is currently seventh in the NFL — one spot behind Watson.
The Browns defense looks better but still gives up big games to bad opponents
Cleveland ranks eighth in the league in yards allowed per game (310) and 11th in yards per play (5.1). Those are solid numbers, but they’ve come against an underwhelming run of opponents. The two best quarterbacks the Browns have faced are a slumping Ben Roethlisberger and aforementioned rookie Watson. Jacoby Brissett’s Colts dropped 31 points on them. The Bengals, who had scored 33 total points in their previous three games, did the same.
A cheesecloth secondary is responsible for most of those problems. No team in the league is allowing opposing passers to post a higher rating than the 111.0 number for which the Browns are responsible. That means quarterbacks like Brissett, Josh McCown, and Joe Flacco wind up looking like prime Tom Brady every time they face Cleveland.
That puts more pressure on the team’s front seven, which does provide some room for optimism. Jamie Collins, Joe Schobert, and Christian Kirksey lead a solid linebacking corps. Up front, Garrett looks every bit worthy of his status as 2017’s No. 1-overall pick. He and Shelton lead a defensive line filled with prospects who are 25 or younger — and it’s easy to see the potential for growth from guys like Manny Ogbah and Larry Ogunjobi.
Still, these players are more potential than production, and Cleveland has been an arid desert when it comes to allowing its young talent to blossom.
Is 0-16 really still on the table?
The Browns have an array of winnable games left on their schedule, but they also had winnable games against the Colts, Bengals, and Jets earlier this fall. They botched all three.
Head coach Hue Jackson is saying all the right things. He’s not ready to give up on the season — but he’s also not naive enough to promise anything other than the idea Cleveland won’t go 0-16.
“We’ve got 10 more games,” Jackson told reporters after his team’s loss to Houston, via ESPN. “We’re going to find a way to win. I am not swimming in that lake. So you guys can believe that. We’re going to find a way. It’s just that simple.”
That worked out in 2016, but there’s no guarantee lightning can strike twice. Games against the Bengals, Bears, and Chargers will provide opportunities, but it may make more sense for the Browns to suffer through the final 11 weeks of the season and secure another top draft pick in order to take a stab at their latest quarterback project, USC quarterback and probable No. 1-overall pick Sam Darnold.
2017 was supposed to be different in Cleveland. Unfortunately, when you’re the Browns, nothing ever changes.
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