Skip to main content
Come Fan with UsTuesday, August 4, 2026

NFL playoff picture: Patriots and Cowboys benefit most from Week 12 wins

The Patriots are setting up for a playoff bye but a big Week 15 game against the Steelers could change that.

New England Patriots v New York Jets
New England Patriots v New York Jets
Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images

The playoff picture is coming into focus with just five weeks remaining in the NFL regular season. But there is still much to be determined, especially if teams like the Colts and Seahawks have their way. Those teams are currently on the outside looking in while hoping they can do their part to change the standings before the new year and playoffs arrive.

Here’s a look at how Week 12 impacted the NFL playoff picture.

AFC playoff picture

What stayed the same: The Chiefs were on a bye and nothing changed for them as they remain the AFC’s top team. The Texans played the Titans on Monday Night Football and built onto their division lead with a win. The Chargers and Ravens both won and maintained their current status as Wild Card teams. The Chargers are now just one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West and have the best record of any Wild Card team in either conference.

The best and worst of Week 12

What changed: The Steelers’ loss to the Broncos coupled with the Patriots’ win over the Jets bumped New England into the two seed while Pittsburgh fell to the four seed. Even when the Patriots seem to be mediocre, they still manage to be a top seed in the AFC. The Patriots play the Steelers in Week 15 at Heinz Field for a game that will have playoff implications.

What to watch for moving forward: The Bengals’ loss to the Browns has them tumbling out of contention while the Broncos may be a surprise team to keep track of as the calendar turns to December. The Colts are also making a playoff push following their fifth-straight win and Andrew Luck’s eighth-straight game with three or more passing touchdowns.

If the season ended today, these would be the AFC playoff seeds:

1. Chiefs (record: 9-2), (conference record: 7-1)

2. Patriots (8-3), (6-2)

3. Texans (8-3), (6-2)

4. Steelers (7-3-1), (4-3-1)

5. Chargers (8-3), (5-2)

6. Ravens (6-5), (6-3)

In the hunt...

Colts (6-5), (5-4)
Dolphins (5-6), (4-4)
Bengals (5-6), (3-4)
Broncos (5-6), (3-5)
Titans (5-6), (3-6)
Browns (4-6-1), (3-4-1)
Bills (4-7), (3-5)
Jaguars (3-8), (2-6)
Jets (3-8), (2-6)
Raiders (2-9), (1-6)

AFC tie breaker notes:

  • The Ravens win a tie break over the Colts based on best win percentage in conference games.
  • The Dolphins win a tie break over the Bengals and Broncos based on best win percentage in conference games.
  • The Bengals win a tie break over the Broncos based on best win percentage in conference games.
  • The Jaguars win a tie break over the Jets based on head-to-head win percentage.

NFC playoff picture

What stayed the same: The Saints continued their dominant season on Thursday with a win over the Falcons that keeps them in the No. 1 seed heading into Week 13. The Rams were on a bye, but are right behind the Saints with a matching record; New Orleans’ win over LA has them ahead in the playoff standings. The Bears also took care of business on Thanksgiving with a win over the Lions. Chicago is cruising toward its first NFC North title since 2010. But they’re not the only team in the division alive in the playoff race. The Vikings’ win over the Packers kept them in the picture, too and they even moved from the sixth seed last week to fifth seed this week.

What changed: The Cowboys’ Thanksgiving win over Washington has them swooping in as the new leader in the NFC East. With Alex Smith done for the year and Washington’s quarterback situation foggy, the Cowboys control their destiny moving forward. But, Washington still remains in the playoff picture with a 6-5 record, they’ve just dropped down to the six seed while bumping the Panthers out of the top six.

What to watch for moving forward: The Seahawks’ win over the Panthers could come in handy down the stretch as Carolina dropped out of the playoff picture and below Seattle in the standings. They’re now the first two teams in the hunt with the Seahawks having the edge due to Sunday’s win.

If the season ended today, these would be the NFC playoff seeds:

1. Saints (10-1), (7-1)

2. Rams (10-1), (6-1)

3. Bears (8-3), (6-1)

4. ​Cowboys (6-5), (5-3)

5. Vikings (6-4-1), (5-3-1)

6. Washington (6-5), (6-3)

In the hunt...

Seahawks (6-5), (5-3)
Panthers (6-5), (4-4)
Eagles (5-6), (3-5)
Packers (4-6-1), (2-5-1)
Falcons (4-7), (4-4)
Buccaneers (4-7), (3-5)
Lions (4-7), (2-6)
Giants (3-8), (2-7)
Cardinals (2-9), (2-5)
49ers (2-9), (1-7)

Related

NFC tie breaker notes:

  • The Saints win a tie break over the Rams based on head-to-head win percentage.
  • The Cowboys win a tie break over Washington based on best win percentage in division games.
  • Washington wins a tie break over the Seahawks based on best win percentage in conference games and wins a tie break over the Panthers based on head-to-head sweep.
  • The Seahawks win a tie break over the Panthers based on head-to-head win percentage.
  • The Falcons win tie break over the Lions based on best win percentage in conference games and a tie break over the Buccaneers based on head-to-head win percentage.
  • The Buccaneers win a tie break over the Lions based on best win percentage in conference games.
  • The Cardinals win a tie break over the 49ers based on head-to-head win percentage.

More in NFL

NFL
Kyle Shanahan’s car accident has transformed into the NFL’s biggest mysteryKyle Shanahan’s car accident has transformed into the NFL’s biggest mystery
NFL

A routine traffic accident has become something entirely surreal.

By James Dator
NFL
Aaron Rodgers and D.K. Metcalf take part in training camp toilet pactAaron Rodgers and D.K. Metcalf take part in training camp toilet pact
NFL

If it’s yellow, let it mellow.

By James Dator
NFL
Bills release alternate uniforms so ugly that even die-hard Bills fans hate themBills release alternate uniforms so ugly that even die-hard Bills fans hate them
NFL
The Panthers had a nightmare opening to training campThe Panthers had a nightmare opening to training camp
NFL

A lot went wrong in a short period of time.

By James Dator
NFLFromBaltimore Beatdown
Critics keep moving the goalposts on Lamar JacksonCritics keep moving the goalposts on Lamar Jackson
NFLFromBaltimore Beatdown
By Femi Ayanbadejo
NFL
61 NFL predictions ahead of the 2026 season61 NFL predictions ahead of the 2026 season
NFL

From Week 1 to the Super Bowl and beyond, we give a comprehensive layout of what the 2026 season will look like.

By Jarrett Bailey