3 NFL teams we believe in this season, against our better judgment

Every NFL fan enters September with hope. For many, the promise of a February date with the Super Bowl is the ultimate goal. Others are just looking for subtle signs of growth and maybe a surprise trip to the postseason.

Today, we’re talking about the latter.

Somewhere, lurking below the shiny surface of contenders like the Patriots, Chiefs, Rams, and Eagles are the teams with long odds to fight beyond Week 17. These are the franchises shunted off to Thursday night showcases and broadcasts that fail to escape regional markets. And every year, a handful of these downtrodden, overlooked teams escape the gravity of last year’s losing records and shoot into the stratosphere of honest-to-goodness contenders.

Last year, the Bears cast aside doubts about their quarterback situation to win their first division title since 2010. One year earlier, the Jaguars rose up from a Mobius strip of misery to come within one quarter of their first Super Bowl appearance. Franchises like the Bills, Lions, Dolphins, and Raiders have all exceeded expectations to make postseason appearances since 2016 alone.

So who could it be this year?

The NFL has no shortage of faulty teams. Some (i.e., the Dolphins) won’t be able to overcome their myriad issues to find themselves in the thick of the playoff race come December. Others will shrug off these concerns to join the upper echelon of teams — or at least put the world on blast for 2020.

Here’s who we think have the chops to surprise in 2019, even if a quick look at their rosters or coaching staffs suggest otherwise.

Teams with flawed quarterbacks have proven time and time again that a dominant defense can push them out of mediocrity and into the postseason. While Buffalo was a six-win team in 2018, it had the defense of a playoff contender. The Bills ranked second in yards allowed and third in yards given up per play. They were especially stingy against the pass; their 82.6 passer rating allowed was third-best in the NFL behind only Baltimore and Chicago — two division winners.

Now take that defense and add multi-purpose wrecking ball Ed Oliver to fill the gap Kyle Williams left behind in retirement. Even if Oliver needs some time to adjust — and reports suggest he won’t — that’s still a championship-caliber unit.

Of course, there’s one major caveat that could keep the Bills from surprising. Josh Allen was, objectively, a bad passer as a rookie. The Wyoming product completed less than 53 percent of his passes and had more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (10) for a low-wattage passing attack. Per Sports Info Solutions, only 63 percent of his throws were on target — 59th-best among all NFL quarterbacks last season and better than only one rookie, Lamar Jackson.

The Bills took steps to address this in 2019. So many steps, in fact. Buffalo signed or drafted eight different offensive linemen this spring in order to keep Allen comfortable in the pocket. The club added Cole Beasley, John Brown, Tyler Kroft, Lee Smith, Andre Roberts, and Dawson Knox as WR/TE targets and threw tailbacks T.J. Yeldon, Frank Gore, and Devin Singletary into the mix. No team in the league has done more to overhaul its offense than the Bills.

Will it help? We’ve seen passers like Jared Goff and Mitchell Trubisky turn their teams around as second-year starters with an upgraded cast of characters around them. That’s the blueprint Buffalo is following. It might work, too. — Christian D’Andrea

Sam Darnold hive, assemble.

Darnold had an up-and-down rookie season, but he ended it with a bang. Over his last four games, Darnold posted a passer rating of 99.1, which would have ranked 11th in the NFL if extrapolated for the whole season. He showed he has the pure talent to be an upper-echelon passer in the NFL, and now he has a coach, Adam Gase, who has strong track record with quarterbacks.

Darnold has help, too. The Jets’ offensive line got a big boost by trading for Kelechi Osemele, they signed Le’Veon Bell in free agency, and they quietly have a formidable trio of receivers in Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, and Jamison Crowder.

There are two positions on the Jets that can really hurt them this season, though: cornerback and edge rusher. The team hoped to have found a gem in third-round pick Jachai Polite from Florida, but he was cut after failing to meet expectations during the preseason. Trumaine Johnson is a solid option at cornerback, but the Jets don’t have too much else at the position outside of Brian Poole — who does his best work as a blitzer.

Even with those deficiencies at cornerback and edge rusher, they should be in good shape to be in play for a wild card spot this year. The Jets have two wrecking balls on their defensive line with Quinnen Williams and Leonard Williams, and a stud linebacker in C.J. Mosley. If Darnold can pick up where he left off at the end of last season, the Jets will push for a playoff spot. — Charles McDonald

It sure seemed like Jameis Winston was set up to breakout in a big way in 2017. Instead, the Buccaneers finished 5-11 and he was pretty much the same guy that he was in 2015 and 2016.

Tampa Bay tried upgrading its defense in 2018, but everything more or less stayed the same. It was still a bottom-five defensive unit and Winston was still way too error-prone. Aside from some Fitzmagical stretches, the Buccaneers were a bad football team once again.

So it feels silly thinking that the Buccaneers will finally turn a corner, but here I am.

For one, I believe in Bruce Arians. He’s found success at just about every stop during his lengthy coaching career. Most recently, it was in Arizona, where he turned the Cardinals’ offense into one of the NFL’s best and got to the NFC Championship one season.

He has plenty to work with in Tampa Bay, which already had one of the more explosive offenses in the league. It really just needs to rein in the mistakes and dial up the efficiency, and Arians can help there.

The defense should be better under Todd Bowles, with Ndamukong Suh, Devin White, and Deone Bucannon all added to the mix. It doesn’t need to be ranked in the top five — just good enough not to drag down the big-play offense.

The NFC South is a notoriously weird, flip-flopping division. Don’t be too shocked if the Buccaneers make an unexpected surge to the top. — Adam Stites