7 bold predictions for the 2023 NFL Draft

The NFL Draft begins on Thursday night and this is one of the wildest, least-predictable draft seasons in recent memory. A draft class featuring incredible depth, but lacking top-end talent, paired with risks at every position has left us with a board that nobody has any consensuses about.

Every year we’re hit with those shocking “WTF” moments that make absolutely no sense. So, ahead of the first round here are our bold predictions for what might happen in the 2023 NFL Draft.

It’s not exactly a “bold prediction” to say “a really good running back will go later in the draft,” but when it comes to Texas’ Bijan Robinson we’ve truly hit silly season. As recently as this week there were solid opinions that he’s so good he’s worth a top 10 pick, even at the deemphasized running back position — but now we’ve lost the plot.

There are some really reputable sources saying that Robinson could actually be the RB2 of this class behind Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs. To be clear: This would probably push Robinson out of the first round all together.

I don’t think that will happen, but I do think an elite playoff team will be able to take Robinson in the late 20s. The Bills are such a safe pick at No. 26 that it’s almost infuriating. Bijan will fall, and the rich will get richer. A year from now people will wonder how so many horrible teams whiffed on an elite talent like this.

The buzz about Levis has been all over the map. Once legitimately thought of as a possibility at No. 1, now that’s simply not going to happen. The problem is that everyone is being so coy about their QB preferences that it’s impossible to know how much of the Levis chatter is real, and how much is imagined.

Here’s what we do know: Levis is a major risk. A colossal risk. He doesn’t pass any of the pre-draft checks you’d want him to, outside of “he has a big arm, and played in a pro-style system.” This was good enough for Josh Allen to turn into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but for every Josh Allen there’s two or three Kyle Bollers, JP Losmans, or dare we say, Jamarcus Russells.

Bad teams take dumb risks at quarterback. That could be enough to see Levis taken in the top 10. If he doesn’t, however, we hit a major slide into the better teams in the NFL. Where does Levis go at that point? Would the Buccaneers take him at No. 19? Not unless they really love him. Would the Vikings at No. 23? Potentially, but they have other major defensive needs to address.

I predict that the hype behind Levis was smoke and mirrors. We’ll see him fall into the early 20s before a bad, QB-needy team who was drafting in the top 10 trades up to get him.

The hype behind Hendon Hooker is out of control, and it’s been progressively picking up steam as we draw closer to the draft. At one point Hooker was the solid QB5 in this class, a second round shrug of a player who might become something, but probably won’t.

Now, forget about it. There’s some really alarming rumors out there that Hooker could be QB3 on some boards. That would mean a 25-year-old quarterback, who only excelled in a system that doesn’t translate to the NFL, coming off a torn ACL would be taken in the first 15 picks. This is the kind of move that is a bullet point when a GM is fired, but it feels like it’s going to happen.

Bold prediction: Hendon Hooker will be taken before the Patriots pick at No. 14

Heading into the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine, one of the questions I pondered most was this: Who is QB5?

As noted above, it seems that Hendon Hooker has locked down that spot. So as someone who focuses on the quarterback position, I am left wondering who might come off the board next.

The two player I like most following Hooker are Jake Haener from Fresno State, and UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Both fit the mold of long-term backups with starter-level upside — and plus-level starter upside at that — but I am growing more and more intrigued about DTR coming off the board earlier than expected.

Thompson-Robinson is a dynamic athlete, but he also showed timing, rhythm, and anticipation on his throws last season in Chip Kelly’s offense. He is an experienced starter, having started four years for the Bruins, and completed nearly 70% of his passes a season ago.

Also, consider this. The old “Parcells Rules” for drafting a quarterback:

DTR checks every box.

Bold prediction: DTR will be drafted by the Seattle Seahawks on Day 2

In the history of the NFL draft, the highest number of tight ends drafted in the first three rounds is eight. That mark was set back in 2019 when T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, Irv Smith Jr., Drew Sample, Josh Oliver, Jace Sternberger, Kahale Warring, and Dawson Knox all came off the board within the first three rounds.

This draft will break that record.

Prior to the NFL Scouting Combine, Daniel Jeremiah noted that he had 11 tight ends with Day 1 or Day 2 grades. “In terms of the number of guys, I have 11 tight ends that I have top-three round grades on, which is a ridiculous number,” Jeremiah said. “It is just a really, really good group.”

Currently there are six tight ends inside the first three rounds according to NFLMockDraftDatabase.com, but I think when all is said and done, a few more sneak into the first three rounds, setting a new draft record. Players to watch at the back of the class include Luke Schoonmaker from Michigan, Zack Kuntz from Old Dominion, Cameron Latu from Alabama and a favorite of mine, Payne Durham from Purdue.

Bold prediction: Ten tight ends are drafted in the first three rounds

Last year, the NFL Draft was shaken with news of WR AJ Brown getting traded from the Tennessee Titans to the Philadelphia Eagles. We know how that turned out for Philadelphia, but there could be more star players being traded on night 1 of the Draft this year as well.

Let’s start in Arizona, where things are going just about as well as their uniform rollout. Star safety Budda Baker requested a trade back on April 14. He might not net as large of a pick haul as Jamal Adams received when he was sent to Seattle by the New York Jets, but a team needing a do-it-all safety could be willing to give up their first round pick. There’s also the problem of his contract, as he’s set to become a free agent in the 2024 season and will likely net an extension from whichever team he gets traded to. If we stay in the desert, his teammate Deandre Hopkins has been the center of trade talks since maybe February. The odds he gets traded on night 1 are a little lower than Baker’s, but with his pedigree as one of the top receivers in the league he could net the Cardinals a 4th round pick.

Bold Prediction: Budda Baker gets traded on night 1 of the NFL Draft

The Jalen Carter draft process has been an odd and twisting path, to say the least. After entering the draft process near the top of everyone’s draft boards, Carter has begun to take a slide. A large part of this is due to the arrest for reckless driving and racing in the death of Georgia football player Devin Willock and recruiting staffer Chandler LeCroy. Carter entered a plea deal after being charged, and won’t face jail time.

While all of this was happening, Carter still had to work out for scouts and executives. At his pro day, Carter underwhelmed, looking out of gas and sluggish. Anonymous scouts (we’ll get to that later) have called into question his character and love for the game, and Carter could slide from where he was projected to go.

On the anonymous scouts: the entire premise of scouts throwing rocks and hiding their hand is stupid. We give these scouts full ability to damage these players’ character while not putting their name on essentially what is a take about the person, not the on field player. If you’re going to slander a player’s character or who they are as a person, put your name behind it.

Now back to Carter: steam is picking back up for Carter to be the pick if he’s there for the Seattle Seahawks. If there’s any team who doesn’t mind players with these alleged character issues, it’s a team led by Pete Carroll. On the field, Carter is a phenomenal player with the ability to destroy an entire gameplan. That’s too good to pass up.

Bold prediction: Jalen Carter is the Seattle Seahawks’ draft pick at 5th overall