Lamar Jackson to the Falcons makes too much sense. So why isn’t it happening?

From the moment the Ravens signed QB Lamar Jackson to a non-exclusive franchise tag, many in the public seemed to think that Atlanta was the next destination for the former MVP. Ample receiving targets, a whole lot of cap space, and most importantly, a need at QB. However, as soon as the news went public that Jackson received a non-exclusive franchise tag, the Falcons responded with lightning speed (via ESPN’s Dianna Russini):

What? It felt like the Falcons were doing something dumb by openly saying that they weren’t interested in Jackson, especially when that team could possibly be a QB away from contention in a weak NFC South. Then, you get into the moves that the Falcons made in free agency. A Jessie Bates deal here, David Onyemata and Kaden Elliss come on down, and Atlanta re-signed RT Kaleb McGary to a three-year, $34 million deal. All of these moves make sense in order to make the team better, but they still don’t have a quarterback.

So why is it that the Falcons didn’t go after Jackson?

Well if you ask Falcons owner Arthur Blank, he would say something along the lines of this:

Now this is where we get confusing. The injury concerns are the reason the Falcons didn’t pursue Jackson, yet Lamar has played in 10 more games in his career than Deshaun Watson, who the Falcons tried to trade for in the midst of his sexual harassment investigation. In addition, Watson has torn his ACL twice, while Jackson’s worst injury is the MCL sprain he suffered in the previous season.

It feels like the Falcons are spinning the wheel of mediocrity by not trading for Jackson. Sure, you can try building everything around the QB, but Desmond Ridder isn’t winning enough games to get into contention. Taylor Heinecke could start a few games, but then you’re just playing the QB carousel until you choose to get off. The core players for Atlanta on offense have already dealt with injury issues: TE Kyle Pitts only played in 10 games this past season and RB Cordarrelle Patterson only played in 13 games. In order to get the most out of these guys, why not trade for a perennial MVP candidate who was having another great year before he was injured?

So if we’ve thrown out injury history, and we’ve already discussed that adding a former MVP would assuredly make a team better, why isn’t Atlanta dealing for Jackson?

Same as every other team—the contract.

The reason the Falcons didn’t trade for Deshaun Watson was the contract Watson was asking for. Watson wanted a fully guaranteed contract, and received one from Cleveland. That’s what sparked Jackson to request a fully guaranteed contract of his own. NFL owners have decided not to give out any more fully guaranteed contracts, they want to make the Watson deal a blip on the radar, and not a trend, which doesn’t help Jackson’s case. The Falcons will have to pay star CB AJ Terrell next year, and Kyle Pitts the year after that, so for Atlanta it might not seem to make sense to pay Jackson a lot of money when many of their core players have to be paid in the future.

The counterpoint to that is simple: in 2024 the Falcons are projected to have $82 million in cap space, and with the salary cap constantly increasing (NFL.com reports that the 2023 salary cap increased to a record $224.8 million) there will be enough money to go around. Why not trade for an MVP candidate, kickstart a passing game that is on life support and go contend for a division while the rivals will be starting Derek Carr, a rookie and God knows what in Tampa Bay?

Atlanta felt like the destination that made the most sense. However, the Falcons are choosing to go a roundabout way of building their franchise, which is a dangerous game to play without having the most important position in sports locked down.