All of a sudden, this game feels so much more important. After their season potentially being on the brink, the Dolphins have rattled off three straight wins and are right back in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race. They go up to Green Bay to face a Packers team that I came into the season really high on, and they’ve given me no reason to feel worse about them. The biggest reason is because they’ve found something in their run game and RB Josh Jacobs. Jacobs came over as a free agent from the Las Vegas Raiders, and he’s been everything that they’ve been looking for. He’s 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards, 3rd in total Yards after Contact and has run for seven touchdowns. But it’s when we get to games in November and December where I really think we feel Jacobs’ impact on the Packers.
Dolphins vs. Packers is the highest stakes game of Thanksgiving
Josh Jacobs is the wrecking ball the Packers have needed, now he runs into the Dolphins.
Josh Jacobs is a great back to watch because he initiates so much contact. He doesn’t just want to hit— he invites you to try and hit him. Among all RBs with at least 100 carries this season, Jacobs is fourth in Yards After Contact per attempt and third in broken tackles forced. His broken tackle and missed tackle rate of 19.8% is eighth in the same metric. He’s the human snowplow, and his game against the San Francisco 49ers was the perfect example of that.
Jacobs has such good contact balance and runs low to the ground, forcing his center of gravity lower. He’s a load to try and get to the ground, and in these parts of the season the Packers could use his ability to break tackles. This is a diabolical run concept by Matt LaFleur. Bring TE Tucker Kraft in blast return motion, and basically run split zone with the spinner as eye candy. The hole opens up for Jacobs, and he hits a clean spin move to start the game.
This run doesn’t go for much, but look at what Jacobs does to keep this ball ahead of the sticks. His hard running is what separates good teams from great ones, good backs from great ones and keeps that offense afloat.
Again, what I love about Jacobs so much is that he just runs ANGRY. Like there’s no other way to describe it, man. He just grinds out so many good yards for this team, and it matters so much. Not even Captain of the All-Habooga team Malik Mustapha can stop Jacobs. This collision had to have sounded like when Kratos’ axe and Thor’s Mjolnir collided, it ripped a hole in time.
Why is Jacobs so important to this offense? Because his tackle breaking ability gets them the easy yards while QB Jordan Love and the passing game go home run hunting. Love has an Average Depth of Target (aDOT) of 9.4 yards this season, second in the NFL. They do not throw checkdowns, like at all. Because of this feast-or-famine style of play in the passing game, having the run game just be able to keep you on track and hit singles and doubles is so crucial. Jacobs, while not having an elite breakaway gear, is one of the best singles and doubles hitters in the league due to his strength and tackle-breaking ability. With the lack of much quick game in the Packers’ diet, the need for the run game just to get those easy yards is huge so Love can reach deep in the bag of trickshots.
I think Josh Jacobs’ year, along with fellow RBs Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley, are proving the value of a good RB. I think we overcorrected on the value of a good back, especially within the offense. Running the ball will never go out of style, and a strong run game is a critical point of an uber effective offense. While Jacobs’ running style isn’t sexy, it’s effective, and it’s helping keep the Packers efficient.
